UFC Cage Locks: Can Michael Morales reach next level against Gilbert Burns?
The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend for a Fight Night event with welterweights Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales in a featured five-rounder.
The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend for a Fight Night event with welterweights Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales in a featured five-rounder.
Will the former title challenger Burns defend his spot in the top 10 rankings at 170 pounds, or can the undefeated Morales break into the contender stratosphere by winning his 18th consecutive pro bout?
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Scotland’s Paul Craig is moving back up to 205 pounds to take on Brazil’s Rodolfo Bellato in the night’s penultimate matchup. The main card also has several streaking young fighters like recent TUF winner Mairon Santos who’s moving up to lightweight to face Sodiq Yusuff.
All 24 athletes scheduled to compete Saturday in Las Vegas successfully made weight on Friday.
Fans can watch UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales Saturday on Sportsnet+ and Sportsnet 360 with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT.
MAIN CARD
— Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
— Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
— Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos
— Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
— Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Gabriel Green vs. Matheus Camilo
— Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moisés
— Yadier Del Valle vs. Connor Matthews
— Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa
— Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes
— Hyun-sung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez
— Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Yadier DelValle -500
Favourite: Luana Santos -167
Underdog: Sodiq Yusuff +115
Dart Throw: Luana Pinheiro by decision +450
I think DelValle should have no issue with Matthews, who has not been impressive during his UFC tenure. … Santos had issues against Casey O’Neill late last year, but at 25 years of age, I expect her to have made gains. I think that she is the rightful favourite against Lisboa, who is coming off a long layoff. … I have been very high on Mairon Santos, but after a poor showing against Francis Marshall where he was a large favourite, it is difficult to take him against a veteran in Yusuff, who is always game and was recently ranked. … Pinheiro versus Pennington is closer than the line suggest and I think a Pinheiro decision is certainly within the realm of a possibility against Pennington, who is always in close fights.
DAN’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Denise Gomes -588
Favourite: Nursultan Ruziboev -286
Underdog: Thiago Moises +105
Dart Throw: Paul Craig +400
Nursultan Ruziboev’s three wins in the UFC have all come by knockout and his one defeat was a decision loss to Joaquin Buckley. His opponent Dustin Stoltzfus is a veteran of the sport who also pack a punch. I just think this fight favors Ruizboev who should be able to exploit a height advantage and slight reach advantage as both athletes swing for the fences. … Thiago Moises vs Jared Gordon will be a closely contested fight that could go either way. I’m leaning Moises here simply because Vegas has him listed as a slight underdog. Would do the same if Gordon was the underdog. Looking forward to this bout. … Paul Craig has been in the Octagon with some of the best to ever do it. He returns to light heavyweight this Saturday, the division where he had the vast majority of his success. At these odds against an opponent who only joined the UFC in 2023, Craig is more than capable of an upset here.
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MIKE’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Burns vs. Morales reaches Round 2 -555
Favourite: Jared Gordon -125
Underdog: Gabriel Green +185
Dart Throw: Paul Craig to win in Round 2 +1600
Not sure the main event will require all 25 minutes but I’d be surprised if it ended in fewer than five. Morales should win here but staying away from the money line because the odds are wider than they should be. Apart from experience and strength of schedule, Morales has the advantages here style-wise and trajectory-wise. Not much value on this card unless the underdogs are barking.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: DelValle + Gomes + Burns vs. Morales reaches Round 2
Parlay odds: -152 (to win: $65.71)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 16 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 10-6 (W4)
2025 winnings: +$514.90 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+8.00 units)
Best bet: 14-2 (+$115.43)
Favourite: 7-9 (-$520.53)
Underdog: 9-6-1 (+$605.24)
Dart throw: 4-12 (+$600)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-0.27 units)
Best bet: 15-1 (+$201.77)
Favourite: 8-7 (-$224.37)
Underdog: 11-5 (+$1,035.24)
Dart throw: 1-15 (-$1,040)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-16.22 units)
Best bet: 12-4 (+$58.68)
Favourite: 9-7 (+$24.74)
Underdog: 5-10-1 (-$105)
Dart throw: 0-16 (-$1,600)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
