Scout’s Analysis: Breaking down the Canucks after dramatic season

What a season it was for the Vancouver Canucks. 

Last year at this time they had won the Pacific Division regular season title, dispatched the Nashville Predators in the first round of the playoffs, and were battling the Edmonton Oilers in what turned out to be a seven-game series.

Their head coach, Rick Tocchet, won the Jack Adams award, Quinn Hughes became the first ever Canucks defenceman to win the Norris Trophy, and goaltender Thatcher Demko was a finalist for Vezina Trophy.

From the outside looking in, everything seemed positive for the Canucks. They looked as though they had created the kind of culture that would lead to sustained success. They had come a long way from the team president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford inherited when he arrived in 2021. The organization made some savvy moves via free agency and trading, and had prospects arriving at the NHL level through the draft. 

But, as every Canucks fan now knows, cracks in the foundation had already started to form last off-season and eventually led to a lost season in 2024-25 where just about everything went sideways.

Every NHL club conducts an extensive review of their organization each off-season. It’s important to recognize what went wrong and what needs to be done to fix outstanding issues. It’s equally as important to identify the positives and formulate a plan to sustain momentum in those categories. 

After the season we just saw in Vancouver, there is a lot for the Canucks to unpack.

With that in mind, here’s my best shot at delivering an end of season review on the Canucks.

ROSTER BREAKDOWN

Most of Vancouver’s roster is set to return next season, with only four pending UFAs.

We’ll take a look at the team position by position:

• Brock Boeser has very likely played his last game in a Canucks uniform. He’s looking for a raise and although he is capable of putting the puck in the back of the net, he’s too one dimensional for my liking to sign to a long-term deal that could age very poorly.

Boeser produced 25G-25A this season, but he was also a minus-25 and isn’t a forward who pushes the pace up and down the ice. His lack of speed is too much of an issue for me to overlook with the way the game is played in today’s NHL. 

• Pius Suter had a fantastic season for Vancouver. He averaged over 17 minutes per game in ice time and was deployed in a variety of roles.

Suter is a competitive player to have in the middle of the lineup. He’s reliable, and contributed a career high 25G-21A, but he only won 43 per cent of his face-offs and his shooting percentage isn’t likely sustainable (18.1). 

I’d like to see Vancouver re-sign Suter, but I’m not comfortable with his next contract surpassing an AAV of $3 million. He had an outstanding year but hasn’t historically produced at that level in the past. 

• The organization has other defencemen waiting in the wings to earn a full-time role on the roster next season. Allowing veterans Derek Forbort and Noah Juulsen walk to free agency is fine with me. 

• I see a path for Elias Pettersson, Victor Mancini and perhaps Tom Willander to compete for bottom pairing roles. 

• Another strategy the Canucks could implement is via free agency. They might be able to land a value veteran to fill a role. Someone like pending UFA Matt Grzelcyk from the Pittsburgh Penguins comes to mind. 

• Grzelcyk played all 82 games for the Penguins this season. He averaged over 20 minutes of ice time and contributed 1G-39A. He’s highly competitive and plays with some pace. He finished the year with a minus-6 rating for the Pens, which isn’t terrible considering the current state of their roster. His expiring contract paid Grzelcyk $2.75 million. 

• The goaltending position takes on immense importance for the Canucks next season and beyond. 

One of the best moves the Canucks management team made last off-season was signing free agent goaltender Kevin Lankinen. After Hughes, an argument can be made that Lankinen was the Canucks’ next-most valuable player this season. 

Lankinen posted a .262 GAA and .902 save percentage this season, but what makes his stats even more impressive is that he played behind a team that was a shell of what it was in 2023-24. The netminder gambled on himself and won — he signed for $875,000 but his performance led to a three-year extension that will now pay him $4.5 million a season against the cap.

• Meantime, Demko is still in the picture and will be heading into the final year of his contract, after which he’d be UFA eligible. When healthy, Demko has proven to be a top tier NHL puck stopper, but he’s been battling a lot of injuries.

While he makes the Canucks a better team when he’s at his best, I need to see him do it and stay healthy for a prolonged period. There was a moment this season where I had the feeling he was at risk of entering Carey Price territory with his injury status.

• If the Canucks aren’t sure Arturs Silovs can make the full-time jump to the NHL they will have to go shopping for a veteran goalie from the bargain bin in free agency.

Silovs, for the record, has had a strong playoff with AHL Abbotsford this spring. He’s posted a 5-1 record along with a 1.74 GAA. He’s only on the books for $850,000 next season, which gives the organization some fiscal flexibility. 

YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISON

Every team has a nucleus of players who are expected to lead in key categories. Scorers, for example, are counted on to produce offence, while goaltenders are tasked with making key stops at important moments. Transitional defencemen accelerate the play and generally quarterback the power play to some level of success. 

One of the biggest issues the Canucks had this season was the fact too many of their core players failed to sustain momentum from the previous season. I understand how a player can have an off-year in production, but the overall commitment to detail in all three zones and the required compete level to battle through adversity simply wasn’t there. 

Consider the following.

Here’s a look at the Canucks top scorers from 2023-2024:

The group produced 405 points combined, and finished with a plus-146 rating.

Now compare that to this season’s top scorers for the Canucks:

Hughes was by far the Canucks’ best player, and Pius Suter took his game to another level in a contract year. The other players on this year’s top scorers list had some positive moments as well, but the fact their top forwards only contributed 50 points is a steep drop off from last year. 

• Vancouver’s top five scorers this season contributed 135 fewer points than last. 

• More alarming are the defensive metrics from the group. A team that flips from a plus-146 rating from their top offensive contributors to a minus-49 rating has very little chance of sustainable success over a season.

• Vancouver’s power play compared similarly to last season in overall success, falling from 13th in the league to 15th year over years. But their core group of power play contributors scored 59 fewer points on the man advantage from 2023-24.

• I do see a path to more success on the power play next season with the skill the Canucks will return to their roster. What concerns me more is the defensive commitment. Playing with detail, on and off the puck, defensively is a choice more than an actual skill. It takes a level of compete that wasn’t consistently provided from the majority of Vancouver’s top players this year. 

25-AND-UNDER PLAYERS TO WATCH

Filip Chytil

Vancouver took on some risk when they acquired Chytil from the Rangers as a key piece in the J.T. Miller trade. But there’s potential for them to be rewarded for it. Chytil is only 25, big (6-foot-3, 209 pounds), with middle-six centre upside for the Canucks, but he has a history of concussions that have kept him out for extended periods. He had 2G-4A in 15 games for the Canucks after the trade.

Jonathan Lekkerimaki

Lekkerimaki dressed for 24 games and produced 3G-3A, while averaging 12:30 of ice time. Lekkerimaki has the potential to be a significant threat on the man advantage. He rips pucks from the weak side flank and showed some growth in a limited role, but he needs time to add a lot more strength. Lekkerimaki needs to have a committed off-season and come to training camp physically prepared for full-time NHL duty. 

Elias Pettersson

I was excited to see how defenceman Elias Pettersson would adjust to the pro game in North America and he didn’t disappoint. Pettersson is a bit of a throwback. He never shies away from contact and battles to win pucks along the wall, along with gapping up to kill zone entries into the Canucks zone. He played 28 games for the Canucks and averaged just shy of 13 minutes per game of ice time. Almost all of his shifts came at even strength. Pettersson is only 20 years old and projects as a top four, defensive defenceman in time. 

OFF-SEASON CONSIDERATIONS

As the cap rises, more teams will have cap space available this summer than has been the case in years. According to PuckPedia, the Canucks will enter the summer with $16.72 million in cap space, 22nd-most in the NHL. But that’s still plenty of room to add to the team via trade and/or free agency. They have 20 players already signed for next season.

The Elephant in the Room

I’m stuck on the fence about what to do with centre Elias Pettersson. My overall trust in the player has never been this low since he entered the league. 

• Pettersson is on the books for $11.6 million per year until the summer of 2032. That’s a huge chunk of change for a player coming off a horrendous season that only produced 15G-30A in an injury shortened 64 games played. 

• His body language was abysmal at times. His overall compete and execution was well off what he has displayed in the past. His pace of play has fallen off as well. Pettersson rarely attacked with speed off the rush or pounced on pucks with the small area read/react and quickness he is capable of. 

• Pettersson’s contract has a no-movement clause that doesn’t kick in until July 1, so if they decided to move him it’ll be easier before then. But they would be selling low on a player who scored 34G-55A just two seasons ago. There’s a real possibility Vancouver would be asked to retain some salary in a trade that is likely to return a player — or players — with less upside than Pettersson. 

• If I were part of the Canucks management team I would absolutely have Pettersson out there for trade. I want to gauge his perceived market value, see if a team is willing to take on the risk of his contract, and determine how much cost savings the trade would give the organization. I would then target a top six centre in another trade or through free agency, reinvesting the Pettersson money in the process. 

• But if I believe Pettersson truly recognizes he needs to work harder this off-season in attempt to return to form next fall, I’d reluctantly hold on to him. I know what he is capable of producing when he’s at his best. 

Wrecking Ball

Forward Kiefer Sherwood will be entering the final year of his contract with the Canucks after signing a two-year deal last summer that counts $1.5 million against Vancouver’s salary cap. 

Canucks management did a wonderful job identifying Sherwood in free agency and he delivered. He averaged just shy of 15 minutes per game in ice time and was deployed in all situations. Sherwood ended the season with 19G-21A and a minus-1 rating. He was a menace to play against, leading the entire league with 462 hits. He’s exactly the kind of energetic pest that opens up space for his linemates with his relentless compete and speed. The Canucks would do well to find another of his type.

Team Building

The Canucks could return most of their team next fall. As noted above, they only have four free agents to make a decision on and I’ve only recommended bringing back Suter from that list.

• I recommend Vancouver targets Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett if he gets to free agency. He will provide the additional layer of “grit and growl” the Canucks need up front. I’d be most comfortable paying Bennett around $7.5 million, but if he gets to market it’s likely going to take more than that to sign him. I’d go as high as $9 million on him before looking at other options, such as Luke Kunin or Jack Roslovic instead.

• Another forward of interest is pending free agent Ryan Donato. Donato can play both centre and the wing and he’s coming off a season that saw him produce 31G-32A in Chicago. 

DRAFTING AND DEVELOPING

The Canucks amateur scouting staff is led by scouting director Todd Harvey. He and his staff have done a nice job of adding depth to the organization and their draft board is relatively flush for the next three draft cycles. Having this many picks gives Vancouver the flexibility to either keep building out their prospect pool, or to include in trades to improve the NHL roster immediately.

Tom Willander Signs

The Willander signing was fantastic news for the organization. Pro sports sometimes involve uncomfortable contract negotiations and I’m pleased everyone involved in the process has been able to come to an amicable conclusion. 

Willander is a 6-foot-1, 190-pound, right shot who projects as a two-way defenceman at the NHL level. He’s an outstanding skater who contributed better than secondary offence (2G-22A in 39 games) at Boston University this past season. He will suffer through some growing pains, like all young defencemen do when they’re adjusting to the pro game, but adding him to the fold is a positive step in his development process. 

When I was with the Florida Panthers, we drafted Mike Matheson before he headed to Boston College. Matheson was, and still is, a fantastic skater who needed time to work on the finer details of his all-around game when he turned pro. I categorize Willander the same way. 

WHERE TO GO FROM HERE?

The Vancouver Canucks aren’t a franchise in need of a rebuild or much of a retool. They are a team that needs to make some “tweaks” to their roster and attempt to re-establish a culture and identity. The amount of noise surrounding the group was deafening this season, yet the team remained in the playoff hunt until the final two weeks of the regular season. 

Losing Tocchet stings, but replacing him with Adam Foote as the next head coach should provide the group with the comfort of already knowing he’s an excellent communicator who’s intimately familiar with the personality of the team. Beyond the coach, it’s up to the players to reflect upon their season and return to Vancouver better prepared than they were last fall. 

I could go on and on about the Canucks after the season they just had, but as rocky as it was, I believe they could be a playoff team next season if they report in a more productive and trustworthy mind space than they did in the lost season of 2024-25.

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