Transatlantic travel remains steady as European capacity holds and airfares soften

As Europe’s carriers prepare to report their first-quarter results, the transatlantic travel market remains resilient – albeit with early signs of pricing pressure – according to new data released by OAG. This follows mixed signals from the first-quarter earnings of the “big three” U.S. legacy carriers, which reported softening domestic demand but sustained strength in outbound international bookings, particularly to Europe.

Despite concerns of a slowdown, transatlantic seat capacity from Europe to the United States for the summer 2025 season (April–October) has increased slightly. According to OAG Chief Analyst John Grant, planned one-way capacity now totals approximately 33.1 million seats, a modest 0.3% increase from eight weeks ago. “Among the largest carriers, capacity changes have been minimal – less than 2% in either direction,” noted Grant. “That indicates a level of confidence in existing schedules or, more likely, a recognition that making large changes to widebody summer programs is operationally complex.”

Two carriers deviated from the general trend: Icelandic low-cost airline Fly Play expanded capacity by 19%, while boutique airline La Compagnie reduced its planned operation by nearly 25%.

Airfares decline on most major routes despite steady capacity

While overall capacity remains stable, average economy-class airfares on key transatlantic routes have declined, suggesting airlines are using price to stimulate demand. OAG’s analysis of the 20 busiest Europe–U.S. routes found that fares have dropped on three-quarters of them. Routes such as New York–Rome and Madrid–New York saw the most significant reductions, with fares down nearly 15% year-on-year.

Notably, airfare drops are also occurring on routes where capacity has decreased – a less favorable outcome for carriers. On Dallas–London, now solely operated by American Airlines after British Airways suspended summer service, capacity is down 12.5% and airfares are 10.1% lower than last year. Similarly, Chicago–London saw a 12.8% capacity drop, with average fares falling 5.1%.

However, some exceptions remain. Routes from London to key U.S. leisure destinations such as Washington, Miami, and Orlando are seeing higher fares despite little change in capacity, likely reflecting strong early bookings by consumers hoping to lock in better rates.

Summer outlook: stable performance with value opportunities

While the current season may not replicate the record-breaking transatlantic demand of 2023, industry experts remain optimistic. Grant notes that the recent drop in fuel prices—currently 14% lower than this time last year—is helping to offset fare reductions for carriers without hedging contracts.

“There’s no widespread alarm among airlines,” Grant said. “What we’re seeing is typical pricing and revenue management behavior. The Europe–U.S. market may not reach last year’s highs, but it should still deliver strong returns. And for travelers, this may finally be a season with some genuine fare bargains.”

Overall, capacity stability, manageable fuel costs, and price-driven demand stimulation suggest a solid – if not spectacular – summer for transatlantic travel.