Scout’s Analysis: How Stolarz and Ullmark stack up heading into Game 3

The Toronto Maple Leafs are headed to Ottawa for Game 3 of the Battle of Ontario with a healthy 2-0 series lead. But Ottawa has given the Leafs all they can handle in the first two games and, based on how the Senators came back from a 2-0 deficit to force OT in Game 2, they appear to be gaining confidence as a group.

It’s no secret that for any NHL team to have a chance of winning in the playoffs, they need to get elite goaltending at the hardest time of year. There have been examples in the past where a team has won with a goalie being steady but not spectacular — Darcy Kuemper comes to mind when he backstopped the Colorado Avalanche to a Stanley Cup in 2022 — but the most important position in playoff hockey plays between the posts. 

So, as much as the special teams and 5-on-5 play have been discussed so far in this series, what’s been the story of the goaltending so far?

Through the first two games, the battle in the crease has favoured the Leafs. Anthony Stolarz has been fantastic for Toronto, while Linus Ullmark struggled through his first four periods of the series before finally stringing together two steady periods of playoff hockey without allowing a goal against Tuesday night. 

Here’s a look at what has stood out about both goalies as the series heads to the nation’s capital for Game 3:

Quantity and Quality

Toronto has achieved what it’s needed to, but hasn’t been offensively dominant in the first two games. In fact, the Senators have outshot the Leafs and created more high danger scoring chances in the process. 

Through the first two games Ottawa holds a 46-33 shot advantage. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Sens have been credited with nine high danger scoring chances compared to Toronto’s six. Ullmark has made four high danger saves compared to Stolarz’s seven high danger stops.

Timely Saves

In Game 1, the Senators jumped out to an early shot advantage but ended up chasing the game on the scoreboard. At one point the shots on goal were 13-4 in Ottawa’s favour, but they found themselves down 2-0 after Mitch Marner scored on a breakaway 12 minutes into the contest. 

In Game 2, Ottawa fell behind again by the same 2-0 score, but this time it was due in large part to a lack of “puck luck” compared to the shots that cleanly beat Ullmark in Game 1. 

What stood out to me about the first period starts from Stolarz and Ullmark was the timing of their saves at the beginning of both games. For example, Ullmark allowed two pucks to go through him to start Game 1, while Stolarz was standing tall in Toronto’s net. 

Both of Toronto’s first two goals in Game 1 came from high danger chances, but it was concerning to me that Ullmark didn’t get even a piece of either shot. Both of them beat him clean on the glove side.

Conversely, Stolarz was busy in Toronto’s net coming up with key saves early on in both games. Game 2 would have looked a lot different if Stolarz didn’t come up with the following sequences of stops:

To be fair, Ullmark ran into some tough luck with the goals he allowed in the first period of Game 2. Morgan Rielly’s opening goal was partly due to Drake Batherson losing his check and the puck bouncing off Rielly’s skate into the Ottawa net. On the second goal, Senators defenceman Nick Jensen had the puck deflect off his leg and into the net on the PK.

Ullmark could not be faulted on either of those goals. To his credit he remained focused on making the next save and not allowing a third goal against. That led to his team getting back into the game later on.

Patience and focus

Both goalies have displayed a degree of patience and focus in the first two games of the series. It took Ullmark some time to settle in, but he now looks like the best version of himself heading into Game 3 at home, while Stolarz has been prepared from the drop of the puck in Game 1. 

What gives me confidence in Ullmark is what I’ve seen on plays like the following:

Toronto was pressing for an insurance goal in the third period of Game 2, but Ullmark stood his ground on Auston Matthews’ wraparound and maintained his composure to make a glove stop on Matthews’ second shot.

The Leafs scored twice in the opening nine minutes of Game 2. They had registered only four shots on goal by that time and ended the game with only 21 total shots. The fact Ullmark went on a run of 16 straight saves before allowing the overtime winner — which he had no chance at stopping — also speaks to his improved play over the last 50-plus minutes of Game 2. 

Streaking Stolarz

There’s no getting around the fact that Ottawa needs to win Game 3 to get back in the series and have a shot here. The Senators haven’t played poorly, but they need Ullmark to shut the door in the first period and give the group a chance to grab their first lead of the series and not chase the game from the early going. 

The challenge the Senators face is that Stolarz is playing the best hockey of his career. Over his last 10-game segment Stolarz is 10-0 with a 1.48 GAA, .947 save percentage and three shutouts.

Judging by the way Stolarz has taken control of his crease, with timely saves and making sure Senators forwards understand they aren’t welcome around his net, it’s not going to be easy for Ottawa from here.

The challenge the Senators face is how to make Stolarz as uncomfortable as possible. Since he’s clearly dialled in with his ability to square up and front Ottawa shooters, perhaps shot placement and strategizing a way to get pucks to the net quicker when they have the Leafs goalie moving side to side will provide more quality second chances off rebounds.

They have to come up with some other approach, otherwise Ottawa might be staring down a Toronto goalie who’s in a comfort zone that will only get harder to crack in Game 3 and beyond. 

if (!res.ok) { throw new Error('Failed to fetch odds data'); }

const data = await res.json(); const oddsData = data?.data?.game?.details?.current_line; const visitingTeam = data?.data?.game?.visiting_team; const visitingTeamLogo = data?.data?.game?.visiting_team?.image_url_90; const homeTeam = data?.data?.game?.home_team; const homeTeamLogo = data?.data?.game?.home_team?.image_url_90; const gameTimestamp = data?.data?.game?.details?.timestamp;

return { oddsData, visitingTeam, visitingTeamLogo, homeTeam, homeTeamLogo, gameTimestamp }; }

async function renderBetMGM(componentId, league, gameId) { let oddsData, visitingTeam, visitingTeamLogo, homeTeam, homeTeamLogo, gameTimestamp, error;

const container = document.getElementById(componentId + '-odds'); if (!container) return;

try { ({ oddsData, visitingTeam, visitingTeamLogo, homeTeam, homeTeamLogo, gameTimestamp } = await fetchOddsData(league, gameId)); } catch (err) { error = err.message; }

if (error) { container.innerHTML = `

Error: ${error}

`; return; }

if (!oddsData) { container.innerHTML = `

Odds data not available

`; return; }

let gameDate = new Date(gameTimestamp * 1000); const gameDateFormatted = gameDate.toLocaleDateString('en-US', { year: 'numeric', month: 'long', day: 'numeric' });

container.innerHTML = `

BetMGM Odds

${gameDateFormatted}

VS

Moneyline

${visitingTeam.short_name}

${oddsData.away_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.away_money}` : oddsData.away_money}

${homeTeam.short_name}

${oddsData.home_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.home_money}` : oddsData.home_money}

Spread

${oddsData.fav_id === visitingTeam.id ? oddsData.fav_points : oddsData.fav_points > 0 ? `-${oddsData.fav_points}` : `+${Math.abs(oddsData.fav_points)}`}

${oddsData.fav_id === visitingTeam.id ? oddsData.fav_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.fav_money}` : oddsData.fav_money : oddsData.underdog_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.underdog_money}` : oddsData.underdog_money}

${oddsData.fav_id === homeTeam.id ? oddsData.fav_points : oddsData.fav_points > 0 ? `-${oddsData.fav_points}` : `+${Math.abs(oddsData.fav_points)}`}

${oddsData.fav_id === homeTeam.id ? oddsData.fav_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.fav_money}` : oddsData.fav_money : oddsData.underdog_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.underdog_money}` : oddsData.underdog_money}

Over/Under

O ${oddsData.total}

${oddsData.over_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.over_money}` : oddsData.over_money}

U ${oddsData.total}

${oddsData.under_money > 0 ? `+${oddsData.under_money}` : oddsData.under_money}

Powered by

${gameDateFormatted}

VS

Powered by

`; }

// Example usage renderBetMGM('block_c736b6d8a5beefb246ea27ab177938ca', 'NHL', 'fa38c6ed-0f73-4260-aef3-70293463c474');

More from Sportsnet

How Toronto’s game plan has been working so far

Maple Leafs’ Stolarz comes out swinging: ‘This is what you live for’