Analysis: The outlook for Europe’s airports amid slowing passenger spend

New forecasts from Blueprint, backed by data from ACI, show that growth in passenger spend at European airports will lag behind the rest of the world in years to come. Blueprint assesses the implications in this feature, the first in a series in association with The Moodie Davitt Report, and considers how airports, retailers and brands can collaborate to lift the customer experience and arrest stagnating spend levels.

The income generated by duty-free, other retail and food & beverage concessions represents a vital funding support for airport infrastructure development, passenger services and other activities. But according to a new trend forecast, Europe is expected to fall behind other regions in terms of compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the coming years.

The trend forecasts have been produced by Blueprint* Associate Thomas Thessen, who is currently Chief Analyst at airline SAS and previously Chief Economist at Copenhagen Airport. Thessen’s forecast, covering the period 2023-2030 and based on an analysis of more than 200 airports, shows some trends that have negative implications for airport retail.

Data extracted from Airport Council International’s (ACI) Financial Survey and cross referenced with the airport association’s World Airport Traffic Forecast indicate that while total worldwide airport retail, F&B and duty-free concession revenue will grow an average +5.1% per year until 2030, Europe will be in the slow lane at +3.8%.

Next will be the Middle East with an average +5.2% growth to 2030, supported by infrastructure expansion and exemplified by Saudi Arabia’s bold plans for aviation development, Abu Dhabi’s new Zayed International Airport and Qatar Airways Group’s impressive expansion and growth drive. North America is set to show an average +4.1% growth, with Europe next, followed by Africa at just +2.4%.

Why is Europe flatlining?

European airport concession revenue per passenger, which had risen very briefly during the pandemic to just over €5 per passenger has slipped back below that figure. Consumers continue to face economic pressures due to slow growth, climate change, geopolitical tensions and cost-of-living concerns – a worry for 93% of Europeans.

Blueprint Partner Thomas Kaneko Henningsen says: “The big surprise is European airport concession revenue per passenger is trending downwards until 2030. This trend should fuel exploratory talks about how to make airport products and experiences more relevant. It underlines the need for airport operators, retailers and brands to unite and deliver more memorable, immersive and unique customer experiences.”

Breaking this revenue into its three segments – retail, duty free and F&B – a more nuanced picture emerges.

Duty-free concession revenue rose during the pandemic but dropped sharply in 2022 as more travellers took to the air and ironed out the stark rise.

Other retail concession revenue did the opposite: it faded during the COVID years but rose steeply in 2022. Surprisingly, retail concession to 2030 is trending downwards.

Kaneko Henningsen commented: “The really good news is F&B concession revenue is on the rise. Whereas retail and duty free are more transactional, F&B excels at experiences. From exotic coffees and freshly baked croissants in the morning to Michelin-star menus in the evening, best-in-class airports excel at culinary experiences.”

Concession revenues and fresh experiences

While per-passenger spend is struggling, overall European airport concession revenue will trending positively if modestly, as noted above.

Kaneko Henningsen says: “This can help elevate passenger satisfaction by financing more effective security checkpoints; leveraging artificial intelligence enables travellers to personalise their airport experience; promoting experiential shopping, unique airport experiences and sustainability initiatives. These are likely to increase dwell time which, in turn, drives spend.”

Dwell time is a key factor. In 2023, Milan Malpensa Airport concluded that one minute longer dwell time increased spend per passenger by +3-5%.

Last year, the Journal of Air Transport Management reported a +10% increase in dwell time is associated with an increase of +8% in F&B revenue and +6% retail revenue. The report, based on 89 US airports, also underlined the link between spend and dwell time, in line with previous research.

Changing shopper landscape

Although many circumstances are in play when developing these trend forecasts, one of the more critical factors could be found in changing customer profiles and lifestyles.

“Travel retail must constantly revisit what it means to be relevant in the eyes of travelling shoppers,” commented Kaneko Henningsen (right). “It is no longer enough to sell great products at lower prices. Going forward travellers expect immersive and memorable experiences to the extent that it will become an industry standard.”

Blueprint tracks megatrends – including the rise of the Gen Z traveller which is forecasted to reach 1.2 billion by 2028 – supporting the industry in understanding these younger travellers and their dramatically different lifestyle influenced by addictive social media algorithms, powerful artificial intelligence and controversial sustainability.

“Gen Z is not just an age group; it is a global lifestyle. It transcends age, nationality and disposable income. This lifestyle embraces social media as news channels, leverages artificial intelligence to organise daily tasks and votes with wallets when it comes to sustainability,” explained Kaneko Henningsen.

The combined research on spending patterns and best practice cases on this customer group concludes that addressing the needs of Gen Z travellers represents a significant untapped potential.

ACI Europe Director of Economics & Competition Michael Stanton-Geddes commented: “This analysis from Blueprint reveals the laser focus that airports must bring to their business. The airport industry is a dynamic, rivalrous sector. Airports know that they must attract customers, and airlines who bring those customers, with an attractive retail, shopping and dining experience at the airport.

“Then, during the constant evolution of the business, airports and their partners must find ways to make conversions, increase sales and drive growth.”

“We at Blueprint are extremely grateful for ACI Europe’s ongoing support, allowing us to contribute towards the exciting debate on how to explore airports’ non-aeronautical revenue streams going forward,” said Kaneko Henningsen.

*This article first appeared in The Moodie Davitt eZine. Click here for that version.

*Copenhagen-based Blueprint is a business development consultancy established in 2016 that specialises in travel retail knowledge transfer. The Blueprint team has more than 45 years of experience working with leading airports, cruises, inflight, operators, brands and distributors, providing insights and solutions for companies in travel retail.