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20 Fantasy Thoughts: Ovechkin delivering unprecedented production for his age
In this edition of 20 Fantasy Thoughts, Alex Ovechkin has been a man on a mission to set the all-time goal scoring mark and showing that age is just a number.
By the time you’re reading this, there’s a good chance Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record will have fallen.
Alexander Ovechkin has been a man on a mission this week, scoring four times already and after a two-goal performance Friday night, he needs just a single tally to become the NHL’s all-time leader in goals. With the Washington Capitals facing off against the New York Islanders on Sunday, there’s a very strong possibility there will be a new scoring king by Monday.
Gretzky’s record was one of the handful in professional sports that most felt was never going to be broken. Part of that is because to ever challenge it, you’d have to play at an elite level for a very long time and in a physical sport like hockey, that’s almost unheard of. Sure, we’ve seen players recently play well into their late 30s and early 40s, but usually in a reduced role where their skills have significantly diminished. Ovechkin, though, is still racking up goals at a ridiculous pace and isn’t really showing too many signs of slowing down.
In this, his age-39 season, Ovechkin has 41 goals in 60 games after missing a bunch of time with a broken leg. That works out to a 56-goal pace and even factoring in all that missed time, Ovechkin’s goal scoring production is still the most ever by anyone at 39 years old, according to Sportsnet Stats.
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Ovechkin’s chase for NHL goals record
Follow along as Washington Capitals superstar Alex Ovechkin pursues Wayne Gretzky’s all-time NHL goals record.
Most goals in age-39 season
• 1) Alex Ovechkin (2024-25) – 41
• 2) Gordie Howe (1967-68) – 39
• 3) Johnny Bucyk (1974-75) – 29
• T4) Jean Ratelle (1979-80) – 28
• T4) Shane Doan (2015-16) – 28
• T6) Daniel Aldredsson (2011-12) – 27
• T6) Joe Pavelski (2023-24) – 27
• T6) Teemu Selanne (2009-10) – 27
• 9) Joe Nieuwendyk (2005-06) – 26
• T10) Jean Beliveau (1970-71) – 25
• T10) Brett Hull (2003-04) – 25
Most goals in age-40 season
•1) Gordie Howe (1968-69) – 44
• 2) Johnny Bucyk (1975-76) – 36
• 3) Teemu Selanne (2010-11) – 31
• 4) Dean Prentice (1972-73) – 26
• 5) Mark Messier (2000-01) – 24
• 6) Dave Andreychuk (2003-04) – 21
• T7) Alex Delvecchio (1971-72) – 20
• T7) Gary Roberts (2006-07) – 20
•T9) Nicklas Lidstrom (2010-11) – 16
• T9) Jaromir Jagr (2012-13) – 16
Based on some of the cold stretches he had last year and his age, some avoided Ovechkin this season in fantasy, and when he was drafted, it was typically much lower on average than ever before in his career. That has proven to be a mistake as I often mention that a motivated player in fantasy is a good one to roster. Ovechkin was definitely aiming to break the all-time goal scoring record this season and not let it spill over into next year, and continues to be a huge asset despite inching closer to 40.
Now heading into next season, Ovechkin is proving he should still be a priority come draft season. He continues to provide above-average shots and hit production, and even if he has a modest decline, Ovechkin is still going to provide excellent value to any fantasy squad. The way he plays should also lend itself well to still being able to score as he ages, because Ovechkin doesn’t use blazing speed to create opportunities for himself. His ability to find open space in the offensive zone, combined with a quick release, gives goalies fits.
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There are a few other players who are on a trajectory to potentially someday challenge Ovechkin as the league’s best goal scorer. Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak and Leon Draisaitl might have a chance but as good as they are performing now, how will they look at age 33, 36 or 39? It’s hard enough just to continue playing in the NHL in your late 30s, let alone continuing to produce at a high level.
Ovechkin may just be one of a kind.
1. The Carolina-Washington game on Wednesday night had 114 penalty minutes in the final 7:02 of play, which likely swung the PIMs category in a lot of championship matches. I personally grabbed Nic Dowd this week and was pleasantly surprised by his 12 PIM in the contest. That category is usually won or lost every week by someone picking up a misconduct and in the fantasy playoffs I always hold my breath hoping I’m not on the wrong side of it.
2. Capitals goaltender Logan Thompson had a rough outing in that same game before getting injured. Thompson has now allowed 10 goals over his past two starts and his slide comes just when he was starting to get a little more playing time. Goalies are always hard to trust, no matter how well they’ve been playing all season.
3. It’s the time of year where college players are leaving and joining their NHL squads, with Ryan Leonard, Gabe Perreault and Jimmy Snuggerud among the notable names turning pro. Leonard in particular is one to watch for the remainder of the season as he’s getting a look in the Capitals top six.
4. Where do you draft Jeremy Swayman next season? Between getting a late start after he missed camp, the Boston Bruins rebuilding and handling a true starter’s workload for the first time, Swayman has really struggled this year. He’s lost seven of his past eight starts and has an .895 save percentage on the season. I could see a scenario where Swayman comes into next year in a better spot, but the Bruins don’t figure to be much stronger. Swayman might be a high-risk, low-reward pick in 2025-26.
5. Ryan McLeod has now put together a really strong stretch of play. He’s tallied 17 points in his past 15 games, taking advantage of a chance in the Buffalo Sabres top six. McLeod is also solid for faceoff wins, too. There haven’t been that many Sabres skaters worth rostering this season, so take advantage while you can.
6. The Calgary Flames are hanging by a thread in the playoff race and part of that is thanks to Dan Vladar. Dustin Wolf has made most of the headlines in the Calgary crease this year, but Vladar has really picked it up of late. He’s won his past three starts and has a .920 save percentage since the start of February. The Flames have a friendly schedule next week with games against Anaheim and two versus San Jose. Consider him as a quality spot starter down the stretch.
7. Tough injury news for the Vancouver Canucks, as it sounds like Filip Chytil is done for the season and Elias Pettersson isn’t close to returning. That means Pius Suter should remain as Vancouver’s top centre for the time being and he’s looked great so far in that role.
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8. Nick Suzuki has already set a career high in points and is on pace for 90 this year. The Montreal Canadiens forward added to his impressive game-winning goal total with a big overtime winner against the Florida Panthers earlier this week. He’s tied for third in that category league wide this season.
9. Predictably, Jake Walman’s offensive numbers have dropped since joining the Edmonton Oilers. Walman scored at a 52-point pace with San Jose this season and is only clicking at a 41-point pace with Edmonton. The Oilers are of course a much stronger team, but Walman was getting top power play time and more minutes in San Jose. Sometimes going to a better team isn’t ideal for fantasy if it turns into a lesser role.
10. It sounds like Stuart Skinner is still going to miss another couple of games, making Calvin Pickard an interesting option. Pickard is coming off four straight quality starts and favourable matchups against Anaheim and San Jose await next week.
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11. Staying with the Oilers, with all their injuries Viktor Arvidsson is up on the top line and first power play unit. He’s capitalized to the tune of three goals in four games and at least four shots in each one of those contests.
12. Logan Stankoven is starting to find his footing in Carolina, with seven shots on Saturday in nearly 20 minutes of ice time. He also recently had goals in back-to-back games and a stretch where he had points in four of six contests. I’m curious to see what deployment he’s looking at next season, as if Stankoven gets into the top six consistently, he could be worth a late-round pick in drafts.
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13. The same goes for Jackson Blake, who is taking advantage of an injury to Andrei Svechnikov and delivering in the top six. Blake has four goals and six points in five games and is a good option if you’re desperate for scoring. The Canes play four times next week, too.
14. It’s been a tough stretch for Artturi Lehkonen. The Colorado Avalanche forward was on fire when the team acquired Martin Necas, but he’s cooled off considerably and hasn’t scored in 13 games. Lehkonen is also no longer on the top power play unit. If you’re league is still going next week, Lehkonen could potentially be considered a drop.
15. With Necas and Jonathan Drouin out with injury, the Avs have juggled their first power play and Charlie Coyle is getting a look on that unit. Coyle picked up three points on Thursday against Columbus. He’s someone to keep an eye on as a short-term streamer.
16. Scott Wedgewood is on a heater. He’s posted three quality starts in a row and has excellent numbers since the beginning of March, winning six of his past seven starts. The Colorado Avalanche play four times next week that includes a back-to-back, so Wedgewood could be a key piece in the final days of the fantasy season.
17. Mikko Rantanen is starting to get more comfortable with the Dallas Stars, and one player that’s really benefited is Roope Hintz. Rantanen and Hintz have been paired together on the top line and Hintz recently had a stretch of four-straight multi-point games. If this line stays together moving forward, it should really boost Hintz’s value in drafts next year.
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32 Thoughts: The Podcast
Hockey fans already know the name, but this is not the blog. From Sportsnet, 32 Thoughts: The Podcast with NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman and Kyle Bukauskas is a weekly deep dive into the biggest news and interviews from the hockey world.
18. Someone who’s paid dividends as a stash this season is Boone Jenner. After not playing until late February because of injury, Jenner has exploded when it matters most, during the fantasy playoffs. He’s tallied six goals in his past seven games and provided great shot volume. Stashes often don’t end up panning out for a variety of reasons, but Jenner looks like he could be one of the more impactful ones this year. If Jenner can stay healthy for the remainder of the campaign, he could ultimately be the difference in pushing a bunch of fantasy squads to a championship.
19. There’s still quite a bit to play for next week, with some leagues having their championship finals and others in a roto format going right down to the final game. The good news is nobody has just two games next week, so there are lots of opportunities to add from the waiver pool.
Charlie Lindgren is an obvious pickup with Thompson injured, as he should get the majority of the workload in the Capitals net going forward.
I’d also take a look at Cole Perfetti of the Winnipeg Jets. He has goals in three of his last four games and the Jets have a four-game schedule next week that includes Monday and Sunday games. With Gabriel Vilardi sidelined, Perfetti is also getting a look on the first power play.
One schedule I’m not a fan of next week is the Philadelphia Flyers. They play just once in the first five days of the week, which may make Owen Tippett a drop. He’s been held off the scoresheet in 14 of his past 17 games and there are players you could pick up that will give you three games between Monday and Friday next week.
20. Doug Armstrong and Robert Thomas likely had an awkward conversation or two this season. The St. Louis Blues general manager of course helped construct Team Canada’s roster for the Four Nation’s Face-Off that included Jordan Binnington and Colton Parayko, but not Thomas. The 25-year-old broke his ankle in late October which may have hurt his cause leading up to when the rosters had to be finalized in early December, but Thomas’ stock has been rising meteorically for a while now. Thomas has averaged over a point per game for the past four seasons and has proven to be incredibly consistent.
That has never been more evident since the start of February, as Thomas has been on a heater of all heaters. As of February 2, Thomas has 39 points in his past 26 games and amazingly, he’s had at least one point in all but three of those contests. That’s also one of the main reasons the Blues have catapulted up the standings, leaving everyone else in the Western Conference playoff race well in their rearview mirror. As difficult as it would’ve been for Thomas to hear that he didn’t make Team Canada, he appears to be using it as motivation.
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Thomas has always been somewhat of a polarizing figure in fantasy hockey circles. Everyone knows how talented he is offensively, but some avoid him for his lack of efficiency in the peripheral categories. For instance, while he’s been better in the past couple of years, there have been times where Thomas has struggled to even crack 100 shots in a season. He’s also never topped more than 16 hits before in any one of his campaigns. If you’re rostering Thomas, it’s strictly for points.
That said, Thomas’ offensive production is becoming so elite that it makes him valuable in every format. Obviously, everyone wants a Brady Tkachuk, Boone Jenner, Vincent Trocheck or Tom Wilson in leagues with hits for their blend of offense and physicality, but those players are extremely rare. Thomas is scoring at a 93-point pace this season and with that kind of production he’s a huge asset in any fantasy hockey format.
This closing stretch of the season is leaving little doubt in anyone’s mind that Thomas is one of the league’s most gifted offensive centres and proving to Armstrong that when the Olympics come around next February, he’s worthy of a spot on the team.
