Trump’s Poor Poll Numbers Don’t Yet Reflect the Full Picture
"Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls"
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President Donald Trump’s polling is in the landfill and his economy is not much better. That doesn’t mean either has hit rock bottom. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]
The souring headlines are impossible to miss, even for those who have treated his second term as something to tune out, avoid, or deny. Trump’s rampage through the professional, permanent class of government workers has cost tens of thousands of jobs and reduced the federal payroll to 1960s levels. At least 120,000 feds have been cut or targeted for reductions, according to CNN’s headcount. Trump’s war on the budget—even though net spending is actually up since he took office—has drastically reduced contracts with outside companies and vendors, often with no clear plan for making up for the services they were providing. The daily chaos is in your face with hourly outrages and a constant stream of outbursts.
The only thing falling quicker than Washington’s patience with the White House is the U.S. economy, which has been rocked by fears of a trade war fueled by escalating and irrational tariffs.
On Wednesday, as markets were falling once again and the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy actually shrank in the first quarter, Trump tried to lay it all on the feet of his predecessor. “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” he messaged on his social media platform. (Never mind that in January of last year—while still a candidate—Trump claimed that Biden deserved no credit for a surging market, arguing that investors were making money on the promise of Trump’s return to power.) And when meeting with his Cabinet later in the day to mark his first 100 days in office, he doubled down.
“That’s Biden. That’s not Trump. … We came in and I was very against everything that Biden was doing,” Trump boasted at the start of a meeting. He then acknowledged that prices might soon rise on a host of goods. “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more,” he said.
All of which points to three bleak realities: Trump understands that this economy is not buzzing the way he dreamed, we may have not yet seen the worst of it, and voters are increasingly looking for someone to blame.
In recent polls, Trump’s approval hovers around 44% of Americans. That’s down slightly from around where he polled for much of his first term, when a core group of MAGA die-hards never wavered. But this time around, Trump’s base may be made of less sturdy stuff, especially if the economy continues to contract and most fingers are pointed at the occupant of the Oval Office.
Trump rode back to Washington with kitchen-table promises of cheaper groceries, shrinking inflation, and massive job creation. Delivering on those promises, though, has proven trickier than lining up more electoral votes than Kamala Harris. His unsteady performance has left markets lurching from one crisis to another, and his contempt for tradition continues to rattle both Washington institutionalists and Wall Street investors. The cost has so far been around 16 points in Trump’s polling to put him underwater by double digits—but the total bill is still being tallied.
The warning signs are in plain view for those willing to see them. Economists are raising the alarm about a looming recession if Trump’s tariffs stick around. Cheap goods from China are set to dry up as soon as next month, setting the stage for shelves currently filled with imports looking more like they did during those apocalyptic early days of the pandemic. Businesses are pumping the breaks on expansions and investments the same way families are holding off on big-ticket buys.
Trump is doing little to calm these worries. After cooling it for a minute, the President is back in his feud with the Federal Reserve over interest rates, spooking a market that values stability above all else. The GOP-led House and Senate have been left vamping their way through a legislative agenda as the White House seems to veer erratically on priorities and red lines. And puzzled business leaders are struggling to read the tea leaves from D.C.; General Motors’ chief financial officer told reporters this week that any forecasts were little more than “a guess amidst what the Administration might do.”
Stacked together, the pile of Trump’s turmoil is rivaled only by its potential troubles. Americans are unified in a sour view of this economy; a full 59% of Americans say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions, according to CNN polling. The same survey finds 69% of the public anticipates a recession in the next two years, and 72% say the tariffs will worsen the U.S. economy. Put simply: Americans are not buying Trump’s outlook on the economy, and they’re pretty transparently prepared to lay the lumps on him.
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