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The lesson for Labour? Until it can improve local lives and stop fearing Farage, more losses are coming | Polly Toynbee
Rapid, highly visible action in communities and a forthright attack on the new right – that is what’s needed nowIf you thought these elections were bad, just wait for the locals next May. Expect far worse for Labour, unless they act fast. As they tussle over which way to turn, left or right, stop and consider what’s ahead. They will be challenged by Reform UK in towns such as Barnsley, while their progressive city heartlands will be ravaged by Greens, Liberal Democrats, and pro-Palestine and other independents. Expect shocks in London boroughs that have been forever Labour. (Worth recalling that amid Labour’s landslide, Keir Starmer’s vote share in Holborn and St Pancras dropped by 17% in the general election when challenged by a pro-wealth tax radical.) With council elections in a third of seats in English cities, expect an eruption of local leftward rebellions.Those around Starmer may well be misidentifying the threat that matters most. Heavy vote losses to Lib Dems and Greens in a general election would cost Labour twice as many seats as the same number of votes lost to Reform. Analysis by Persuasion UK finds 123 seats vulnerable to Reform switchers, but 250 Labour seats at risk from flight to progressive parties. While 11% of Labour voters are “Reform-curious”, 29% would consider voting Green and 41% would consider supporting the Lib Dems.Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
Rapid, highly visible action in communities and a forthright attack on the new right – that is what’s needed now
If you thought these elections were bad, just wait for the locals next May. Expect far worse for Labour, unless they act fast. As they tussle over which way to turn, left or right, stop and consider what’s ahead. They will be challenged by Reform UK in towns such as Barnsley, while their progressive city heartlands will be ravaged by Greens, Liberal Democrats, and pro-Palestine and other independents. Expect shocks in London boroughs that have been forever Labour. (Worth recalling that amid Labour’s landslide, Keir Starmer’s vote share in Holborn and St Pancras dropped by 17% in the general election when challenged by a pro-wealth tax radical.) With council elections in a third of seats in English cities, expect an eruption of local leftward rebellions.
Those around Starmer may well be misidentifying the threat that matters most. Heavy vote losses to Lib Dems and Greens in a general election would cost Labour twice as many seats as the same number of votes lost to Reform. Analysis by Persuasion UK finds 123 seats vulnerable to Reform switchers, but 250 Labour seats at risk from flight to progressive parties. While 11% of Labour voters are “Reform-curious”, 29% would consider voting Green and 41% would consider supporting the Lib Dems.
Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
