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Maple Leafs Thoughts: What’s important to take away from Game 1 win
From William Nylander’s growing reputation as a big-game player, to Max Pacioretty and the second line, the situation in net and more, Justin Bourne writes about the important things Toronto should take away from its series-opening win against Florida.
There’s just a ton to talk about from Game 1 in the Toronto-Florida series that felt like several games within one, so let’s get to it: 10 Thoughts from the opening game of the second round, which the Maple Leafs won 5-4.
William Nylander’s growing “big game” reputation
With the Leafs’ backs against the wall in 2023, down 3-0 in their series to Florida, Nylander scored in both Games 4 and 5 to give the Panthers the only push the Leafs could muster. In 2024, with the Leafs down 3-2 to Boston, Nylander scored both of the Leafs goals in Game 6 (a win) and their only goal in Game 7 (a loss). This year, after two losses to Ottawa and trying to ice the series on the road, Nylander scored twice, tallying three points in a 4-2 Leafs win.
And you can make the case that Game 1 of Round 2 against Florida was awfully large as well, and Nylander was the game’s most dynamic player by a frozen mile.
His reputation has always been that the highs are high and the lows are low, but it’s borderline confirming that it’s somewhat tied to his give-a-damn meter when in the big games he’s able to conjure up big moments. And if you’re a Leafs fan, I’m willing to bet you think that’s fine, as long as the meter runs high in the playoffs. In many of the games I mentioned, it seemed like the Leafs were stuck in mud and couldn’t create a thing … unless it was on Nylander’s tape. He was the difference in Game 1.
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Max Pacioretty and the second line
Toronto’s first period was, in my estimation, their best of the entire 2024-25 season. That’s factoring in the opponent and the stakes, but they truly took it to Florida. I already mentioned Nylander, but it’s worth mentioning Max Pacioretty and John Tavares, too.
Pacioretty had two assists and was plus-3 in just 13:06 of ice time, to go with four absolutely bruising hits, a shot, a block, and just generally extremely effective minutes. He made space out there for Nylander to do his thing. Tavares didn’t get points but played nearly 22 minutes, had four shots, and was plus-2 with a block and a great screen on the series-opening goal.
The Leafs are at a disadvantage when it comes to the third lines in this series. Their top line is incrementally better than Florida’s for me, but it’s close. If Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander want to outperform Rodrigues-Bennett-Tkachuk, that would be a huge swing in the Leafs’ odds.
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Stolarz/Woll
Somewhere along the line Sam Bennett veered from physical to being a flat-out cheap shot artist. He’s an exceptional player, but Sportsnet’s own Chris Black compiled an incredible thread here of sneaky punch-hits and borderline “whoopsie” violence that at this point isn’t fooling anyone.
He didn’t get suspended, so let’s focus on what matters: The Leafs are likely to be without Anthony Stolarz here for a game or two. Initially when he was removed, I thought that might end up being a good thing. The big netminder had been a little shakier than we’re accustomed to seeing, and it was going a long time between game action for Joseph Woll, who has acquitted himself well when he’s been placed in playoff games in the past. He nearly stole the series from the Bruins last year before his own freak injury.
But seeing the severity of Stolarz’s injury – and a leaky showing from Woll – has me … less confident now. Not about Woll, who I still think with time to prepare is a very good goaltender and can be great for the Leafs. But these guys have been solid handing the net off to each other, getting some rest, and building as a tandem. I don’t love any scenario where they’re asking one guy to carry the mail for two months. Hopefully big 41 is back soon, Woll gives them a couple good starts, and they’re forced to make a tough decision. That “tough decision” is the best thing that could happen to them.
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OK, let’s go a little more rapid fire…
Leafs physical
A list of Florida Panthers who got completely kersmunched (new word) at some point during Game 1: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Nico Sturm, Seth Jones, Niko Mikkola.
Leafs who got drilled: Pontus Holmberg (while creating a chance), and … I guess a few defencemen got hit on retrievals?
I don’t know if the Leafs can keep it up, as it’s not really a style we’ve seen them sustain for long periods, but if they can set that tone for two or probably three games (they’ll need at least one in Florida methinks) they’ll create space for themselves on offence, which could change the later games in the series.
A Rielly good amount of jump
I jot notes in my book pretty simply. I put the timestamp, player number, up or down arrow, sometimes with a small note. “BC” for backcheck. “OZFOW” for offensive zone faceoff win. Maybe “SC” for scoring chance. Then later, I go back and look for themes, and that’s how these pieces get written.
I had “44 (up arrow) jumping” written four times in the first period and about the same total over the rest of the game. Every time the puck went up-ice Morgan Rielly did, too. This is the defining quality to his game. When he does it, he’s dangerous and contributes, and when he doesn’t, he’s just another ho-hum passive defender.
The 3-1 goal was massive for the Leafs, and Rielly’s skating looked as good as it has all season.
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An extremely Knies breakaway finish
I was on the ice this morning trying to replicate the Matthew Knies breakaway goal, no defender, no goalie, no pressure at all, and I gotta tell ya, that is an exceptionally elite play he makes. It’s a miracle I didn’t toe-pick and break my face. That motion of back across your body, back-hand roof job at top speed just under the bar for the game winner is a difficulty level 10 out of 10.
But I also love that he bullied Seth Jones, and parked himself in the crease, and was just generally a presence. He was the top line’s best player for the night, which doesn’t happen often, but when it does, few players in the league (maybe three or four?) can match Knies’ tool kit.
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Matthews has the yips
Auston Matthews did a ton of good things in Game 1, tallying five dangerous shots in 21:30 of ice time. He had two clean takeaways, both of which went the other way to create chances and put the Leafs back on offence, and he yet again won 60 per cent of his faceoffs. The five guys he was on the ice against most were Verhaeghe-Barkov-Reinhart-Jones-Forsling, and each of those guys finished as minus players.
But Matthews just can’t shoot it in right now, and it’s wild to see from one of the world’s best scorers.
There’s the missed net on the pass from Knies (after the Jones hit), and the empty-net attempt he straight up yanks a foot wide from half-ice. He zipped a few shots on rushes that Sergei Bobrovsky saw and handled easily, but another one or two hopped his stick at the net-front.
It’s great that Matthews is involved, and you have to think some will go in for him eventually if he can create five shots a night. But he needs to, I don’t know, switch sticks or sacrifice a chicken or switch tape colours or something, because his shooting percentage of 7.7 (which doesn’t even count missed nets) is crazy low right now. That “missed net” total, by the way, is now at 16, third most in the playoffs and the most of any player still in the post-season.
Domi’s best game
In just 11:35 of ice time Max Domi had three shots, and he trucked Tkachuk before going on a rush and making a nasty give-and-go with Bobby McMann (great pick up by 74) for a solid scoring chance. Even on the “penalty” Domi took I liked that the Leafs had someone there in Brad Marchand’s face when he started trying to act like a dope.
TOI distribution
The Leafs’ most-used defenceman played 20:43 (Rielly), and their least-used defenceman played 15:01 (Simon Benoit).
The Panthers used Seth Jones for 27:39 and Uvis Balinskis for 11:16.
The Leafs had just one forward under 10 minutes, with Holmberg playing just above eight, and he was solid in those minutes. Everyone else was over 11 minutes.
The Panthers used AJ Greer for 4:30 and Jesper Boqvist for 4:37.
As the series goes on the Leafs’ even distribution of ice time should become an advantage.
And finally…
Can they stay focused on the task at hand?
At this point, all the media noise is about Stolarz, Woll, and Bennett. It shouldn’t be. There’s a great hockey series going on here, the Leafs aren’t necessarily any worse in goal (and if you think so, the difference is marginal), and so chasing around a guy who scored 51 points this season — and who’s dying to drag the game into the mud with him — probably isn’t the best use of Toronto’s energy.
I’m not saying they need to ignore him, but the focus has to be on Game 2, not revenge. That can wait if they so decide to pursue it, all the way until next year if need be. The Leafs have a huge chance to take a stranglehold on Wednesday night at home in Toronto, and can’t let one greasy player become their focus.
