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Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Preview: Jets vs. Stars
After both teams survived thrilling seven-game series in the opening round that ended with amazing comebacks, the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars meet in the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Welcome to a second-round series where both teams likely feel like they’ve already spent the amount of emotional capital required to win the Stanley Cup.
Two series went the full seven games in Round 1 and, as it happens, they were both Central Division matchups.
On Saturday night, the Dallas Stars became the first club in NHL history to overcome a multiple-goal deficit in the third period of a Game 7 and win in 60 minutes. Mikko Rantanen, an Avalanche member for a decade, scored a third-period hat trick to bury his old squad, then used an ice-side, post-game interview to declare he still loved every one of his former teammates.
Twenty-four hours later, the Winnipeg Jets scored two goals with the goalie yanked to pull even versus the St. Louis Blues. The second tally, courtesy Cole Perfetti, came with three seconds remaining in the third and represented the latest Game 7 equalizer in league history. Captain Adam Lowry won the game for Winnipeg in double-overtime.
Anything left in the tank, guys?
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Of course, once the puck drops for Game 1 Wednesday in Winnipeg, both the Jets and Stars will be ready to roll — at least mentally, that is.
Making these two teams’ first-round experience even more similar, both Dallas and Winnipeg played Game 7 of their matchup without a top forward and (for the most part) without their best defenceman.
The Stars squeaked by Colorado without a single minute from second-leading regular season scorer Jason Robertson or stud blue-liner Miro Heiskanen.
As for the Jets, No. 1 centre Mark Scheifele was injured in Game 5 versus the Blues and didn’t play again. Meanwhile, defenceman Josh Morrissey left Game 7 after skating for just 2:09, meaning his team had to get by without him for most of five periods.
The Stars have said they expect Robertson and Heiskanen back in Round 2, though they haven’t committed to a timeline.
Scheifele was a game-time decision before Game 7 and the Jets gave no update on Morrissey after their big win.
For the sake of all of us watching this great matchup — the first ever between the franchises — let’s hope all four guys get in the series, and soon.
Head-to-Head Records
Winnipeg 3-1-0
Dallas 1-3-0
PLAYOFF TEAM STATS
ADVANCED STATS
Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick
Jets X-Factor: Getting Scheifele, Morrissey back
Whether they’d admit it or not, the Jets had to be mentally bracing to go through another post-mortem where the team failed in the first round. Winnipeg has more wins than every team in the league in the past two seasons combined (108), but was easily dismissed in five games by the Vegas Golden Knights in 2023 and — despite holding home ice advantage — was pushed aside in five by Colorado last spring.
Then they go out, win the Presidents’ Trophy and choke on home ice in Game 7 courageously battle back versus the Blues and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Will the weight of the Prairies come off Winnipeg now?
As crucial as it is for both teams to get their injured guns back, you have to think the Jets really, really need Scheifele and Morrissey in the lineup. Without Scheifele, you’re looking at a squad where Adam Lowry or Vlad Namestnikov are centering the top unit. And amazing as Neal Pionk was playing 46:15 in Game 7 versus St. Louis, it’s not fair to ask him to fill the role of No. 1 guy for two weeks of high-stakes playoff hockey.
Stars X-Factor: Mikko Rantanen
Is the Moose loose?
Mikko Rantanen — the man they call “Moose” — was quiet for four games versus Colorado, then raged like an angry swamp donkey through the wetlands with 11 — 11! — points in the final three contests.
It’s obviously been a harrowing season for Rantanen. First, he’s ripped away from the only team he’s ever known in a January trade. Then, he’s pretty much immediately under the gun to decide whether he’d be willing to ink a long-term deal with the Carolina franchise that traded for him. When that didn’t come to pass, he was on the move again, this time inking an eight-year extension with the Stars as part of the deadline day transaction.
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He’s now had about two months to wrap his brain around everything that happened, settling in with the Stars and getting back to being the six-foot-four, 215-pound playoff terror he is.
Also, can Dallas finally get off on the right foot here? Despite making two consecutive conference finals, the Stars have managed to lose eight consecutive Game 1s. That’s an almost unthinkable stat for a team that’s had the playoff success Dallas has experienced the past couple springs.
It’s all well and good that Stars coach Pete DeBoer has an insane 9-0 career record in Game 7s, but maybe Dallas could do a better job of avoiding those winner-take-all situations by posting the odd ‘W’ out of the gate.
Key Stat: .758
What else can it be but Connor Hellebuyck’s save percentage in three Round 1 road games?
If there’s an answer for how this all-world goalie struggles so mightily in road playoff games — he’s .838 away from Winnipeg in the past three post-seasons — it requires more expertise to provide than you’ll find in this corner.
If you’re a Jets backer, you have to be hoping it’s just an all-time bizarre anomaly and things will normalize now that Hellebuyck is getting a crack at Round 2.
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This playoff yips narrative — he’s better at home, but still nowhere near what you’d expect for a perennial Vezina contender — felt like it was going to get downright painful when the Blues grabbed a 2-0 lead just over seven minutes into Game 7 on Sunday. Credit Hellebuyck, though, for gathering himself and allowing just one goal in 88:56 of play after that.
Maybe this extremely odd subplot dies with the rest of Winnipeg’s Round 1 ghosts.
How Winnipeg Wins: The Jets had the league’s best power play in the regular season (28.9 per cent) and were especially deadly on home ice, converting 31.6 per cent of the time.
In the playoffs, those two numbers dipped to 22.7 per cent overall and 20 per cent at home.
Recall, before Scheifele went out of the lineup, the Jets were playing without top wingers Gabe Vilardi (who returned in Game 5) and Nikolaj Ehlers (returned in Game 6).
If Scheifele gets back in the lineup, can the Jets get their man-advantage mojo back?
In terms of players who were in the lineup all seven games, Kyle Connor was fantastic for Winnipeg and is tied with Rantanen and Wiiliam Nylander for the playoff scoring lead with 12 points. If Connor can keep firing with more support behind him and Hellebuyck looks like his regular self, the Jets — who had a league-best plus-86 goal-differential in the regular season — will improve their playoff-worst minus-9 mark (at five on five) from Round 1.
How Dallas Wins: If this team puts Robertson and Heiskanen back in the lineup, it’s going to be able to grind opponents into dust.
Remember, Tyler Seguin joined the squad right before the playoffs began after missing five months following hip surgery and he popped two goals and four points in the first round. Put Robertson in there and the top nine on this team is unrelenting.
Then there’s the defence.
Thomas Harley, who’s grown to become one of the best two-way defencemen in the league, saw more total time on ice (197:06) than any player in the league in Round 1. If Heiskanen can come back and relieve that burden by anchoring the other top 4 pair, it’s going to be huge for Dallas. Really, DeBoer will get to a point where either Harley or Heiskanen is on the ice for every single life-and-death minute of a contest.
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The Stars survived Round 1, but did so with the second-worst five-on-five expected goals for percentage (42.85 per cent) of the 16 teams playing. Getting Heiskanen back could really help swing that.
That’s also a good segue to mention one key Star we’ve glossed over so far, goalie Jake Oettinger. Hellebuyck’s Team USA batterymate from the 4 Nations Face-Off had a .911 save percentage against a dangerous Avs team. Basically, Oettinger made all the stops he was expected to and, when the rest of the team is as good as the Stars, that can be enough.
