How UFC 315 main event could decide future of two divisions

MONTREAL — The outcome of every UFC title fight is consequential and far-reaching. A champion retains or loses their crown. A challenger overtakes a division or falls back to the end of the line. One Tapology page gets a W, the other an L. Controversial results occur, injuries are sustained, retirements follow, call-outs bellow.

But seldom prior has a title fight like Saturday’s welterweight bout between challenger Jack Della Maddalena and champion Belal Muhammad at UFC 315 presented by Skilled Trades College carried so much potential fallout beyond the principals involved.

Start with Islam Makhachev, the lightweight champion and consensus No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport who has long held intentions of moving up to 170-lbs. He trains with Muhammad and has said he doesn’t intend to fight him. So, if Muhammad successfully defends his title Saturday, Makhachev isn’t leaving lightweight.

That would set up a 155-lbs clash between Makhachev and former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, who’s moving up to lightweight and began a training camp last month in anticipation of headlining UFC 317 this June in Las Vegas. It’s hard to envision a bigger fight the sport can put on right now, this side of Tom Aspinall vs. Jon Jones.

Who other than Della Maddalena would complain about that potential outcome? Well, maybe Makhachev, who seems eager to leave lightweight behind at his first opportunity and has expressed a lack of interest in fighting another 145’er moving up after twice beating Alexander Volkanovski, who just reclaimed his featherweight belt after Topuria vacated it.

Yet, what if Dalla Maddalena wins? Then Makhachev is certainly jumping at the chance to move up, and potentially leaving his lightweight title behind, although he’s posturing as if that won’t be the case. 

It’s always possible the UFC allows him to chase vaunted double-champ status. But the idea of Makhachev — already a tough sight on the scales at 155-lbs — defending both belts in divisions with 15-lbs of separation seems far-fetched.

In that scenario, Topuria would be left to fight a top lightweight contender — likely Charles Oliveira — for an interim or vacant title. That’s problematic not only due to it being a considerable step down in buzz from a potential Topuria-Makhachev matchup, but because the 35-year-old Oliveira’s only win since mid-2023 came against an over-the-hill Michael Chandler.

There’s also No. 1-ranked lightweight Arman Tsarukyan, who has a split decision victory over Oliveira. But he dropped out of a booked title shot against Makhachev at UFC 311 earlier this year when he developed a back injury during his weight cut only 36 hours prior to the event. If UFC’s past behaviour is any indication, Tsarukyan will need to fight his way back into the title picture after nearly deep-sixing a card. But his next opponent likely can’t be determined until the Makhachev, Topuria, and Oliveira dominoes drop first.

Even UFC’s future schedule may be at stake, with some speculating that if Della Maddalena wins on Saturday, an expected event later this year in his hometown — Perth, Australia — will be elevated from a Fight Night to a pay-per-view headlined by his first welterweight title defence.

And say Della Maddalena wins while Makhachev moves up. That would create the uncomfortable lineage of a 145’er (Topuria) fighting a 155’er (Oliveira) who hasn’t unquestionably earned a title shot for a belt that one of UFC’s most dominant champions (Makhachev) never lost. Which is to say nothing of what it would mean for Muhammad, who’d still have only one loss in his last dozen fights, or Justin Gaethje, who’s perpetually hanging around the 155-lbs title picture but turning 37 this year and in need of a high-profile opponent.

On a more macro scale, the UFC could come out of this weekend with both its 155-lbs and 170-lbs belts being challenged for by fighters making their divisional debuts: Topuria and Makhachev. Clearly, both are capable of greatness. But watching those two jump the line can’t sit well with lightweights and welterweights who have been scrapping their way up divisional ladders, fighting to earn their meritocratically-deserved shot.

Ian Machado Garry is one of those welterweights, having accepted a short-notice fight last month against Carlos Prates — a long, patient, powerful striker coming off a four-knockout, four-performance-bonus 2024 — and won. Only two weeks later, he’s in Montreal and weighed in Friday morning as the back-up for Saturday’s main event. And it’s been impossible to turn around at the fighter hotel without encountering the always-bombastic Garry stirring up trouble and lobbying loudly to get the next title shot.

“I’m being active, I’m fighting the best guys in the world, I’m fighting the guys that people see as most dangerous,” Garry said. “And I think for (Muhammad), it would be a smart move to want to fight me next because I’m going to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to selling the card, putting on a show. I’ll do all the noise. All he has to do is show up so I can win the belt.”

Garry vowed to wear his jockstrap and mouth guard to the arena on Saturday, just in case anything happens to one of the competitors hours prior to the main event. At one point this week, he dispatched his two-year-old son to interrupt a Della Maddalena interview, offering the Australian candy while cutting weight. A scheme to station a pizza truck outside the fighter hotel offering free slices for anyone named Jack Della Maddalena was halted only by the need to purchase an expensive license to sell food on a busy Montreal street.

“Yeah, I try not to worry about it. He’s doing his thing, he’s trying to stay relevant,” Della Maddalena said. “I guess he’s just hoping that someone falls through so he can get his spot, which is fair enough. But I try to avoid him. Except if it’s fight time. Then I won’t avoid him, I’ll go right in his face.”

Della Maddalena and Garry are only the front of a suddenly deep line of younger welterweight talent working their way up the ladder — Sean Brady, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Joaquin Buckley, Michael Morales and Prates among them. It’s a much-needed refresh for a division long controlled by veteran grapplers such as Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns.

Brady made a strong case for a near-term title shot in March by dominating former champion Leon Edwards behind enemy lines in London. But he was stopped by Muhammad in 2022. He’ll no doubt be cheering for Della Maddalena Saturday night.

The undefeated Rakhmonov has been the embodiment of championship material since he entered the UFC in 2020 and would have already fought for the belt had Muhammad not been forced out of their booking at UFC 310 due to a bone infection in his foot. Or if Rakhmonov, who bided his time by decisioning Garry instead, wasn’t injured himself when this weekend’s opportunity came around.

Meanwhile, the 25-year-old Morales will try to extend his undefeated record against Burns next week, while Buckley — 6-0 since moving to welterweight in 2023 — is booked to headline a Fight Night card with Usman a month from now. If the two up-and-comers put on strong performances against the divisional veterans, recency bias will do its thing and many will lobby for them to get the next shot at the strap.

Even No. 8 ranked lightweight Paddy Pimblett, the belligerent and entertaining Englishman who’s won nine fights running and earned his second-consecutive performance of the night bonus last month while molly-whopping Michael Chandler, will have a keen eye on Saturday’s result.

Who does Pimblett — as close to a budding superstar as the UFC currently has — get next if Makhachev’s gone, Oliveira’s fighting Topuria, Dan Hooker’s injured, and veterans Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier are booked against one another? Does he get Tsarukyan or Gaethje? And if so, who’s the odd man out without a fight from that trio?

Still with us? The most we can confidently say entering UFC 315 is this: if Muhammad wins Saturday, then Makhachev will likely fight Topuria at lightweight. If Della Maddalena wins, then Makhachev will likely move up to fight him at welterweight, while Topuria fights Oliveira at lightweight for either an interim title or the proper vacant one.

Everything else is up in the air. And this isn’t even considering the possibility of a freak outcome between Muhammad and Della Maddalena — an eye poke, a bad cut, a controversial decision, a draw — that could lead to the duo being rebooked. This is the wacky world of MMA, after all.

Throughout this fight week, Della Maddalena and Muhammad have been asked more about hypothetical future fights to come than the literal present fight taking place Saturday. How is Della Maddalena approaching it?

“I mean, it always happens, you know? It’s always, ‘What’s next after this?’” he said. “But I’ve got my eyes on Bilal. I’m going to get through Bilal and then see what happens.”

And what about the champion, Muhammad?

“For me, it doesn’t matter,” he said. “Like I told all these guys, go book your fights right now. Because I’m not leaving Saturday without the belt.”

Which one of them is going to be right? Two of UFC’s hottest divisions are waiting eagerly to find out.

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