Friday Four: Rantanen proving it’s always best to pay your stars 

The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is: 

• Rantanen haunts Avs
• Perfetti carving out identity for Jets 
• Vegas needs Hill to be better 
• Andersen standing tall 

Mikko Rantanen, Dallas Stars 

The Colorado Avalanche would still be playing right now if they hadn’t traded Mikko Rantanen.

That’s not an assumption, but a clear fact after Rantanen himself was the one to put an end to Colorado’s season. After a quiet start to his first-round series, the Dallas Stars forward scored 11 points over Games 5, 6 and 7, which included a pair of four-point periods and a hat trick in the third frame of Game 7 that ultimately eliminated the Avalanche. Now the Winnipeg Jets are feeling his wrath, as Rantanen scored a natural hat trick in Game 1 to give him a ridiculous 14 points in his past four games. Rantanen has now factored in on the Stars’ last 12 goals, which is the longest streak ever in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  

I’m sure it’s a scenario Colorado could not have foreseen when they dealt Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes back in January. The Avs surely didn’t expect him to get flipped back to a division rival that they would face in the opening round only weeks later, and now that he’s signed long term in Dallas, Rantanen is going to torment Colorado for years to come.  

Avs management made a calculated decision that Rantanen wasn’t worth his ask on a new contract, gambling that they could use the return of Martin Necas and freed up cap space to balance out their roster and eventually end up in a better position. Initially, it looked to have all been going according to plan, with acquisitions like Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle giving them depth down the middle and the return of Gabriel Landeskog providing a huge boost. That said, Rantanen proved that an elite player trumps everything when he’s on top of his game.

Rantanen has 116 points in 89 playoff games and shows up when it matters most, something that even the cumulative talent the Avs added can’t compare to. He sits seventh all-time in points per game in the post-season, ahead of players like Mark Messier, Bobby Orr and Sidney Crosby. That’s talent that you simply find a way to keep. The 28-year-old flipped the series on its head when he kicked it into high gear, and even with the Stars missing Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, Rantanen’s elite play was good enough to carry them through and dispose of a great team like Colorado.  

Even when looking at his regular-season stats, it’s clear that Rantanen is in elite company. He’s averaged 1.08 points per game for his career and is a real threat to score 50 goals and 100 points annually. Players like that don’t grow on trees, and it’s even rarer when they become available in a trade or free agency. That’s why it’s no surprise teams were lining up to acquire Rantanen’s services when the Avs decided to move him, and there would’ve been a massive bidding war this summer had he made it to free agency.

What makes this situation more unfortunate for the Avs is the timing of it all. Not long after the trade, word came down that the cap would be rising significantly in the years to come. Rantanen’s ask probably seemed a lot more reasonable under these new figures, even if his AAV would’ve had to leapfrog Nathan MacKinnon’s. Plus, if Colorado wanted to add more depth, they probably could’ve kept Rantanen and simply added pieces in free agency with the additional cap space. Ultimately, we don’t really know what numbers were being tossed around in the negotiations between Rantanen and the Avalanche, but unless they were just astronomical from Rantanen’s side, it’s pretty clear Colorado would like a mulligan to go back and do things differently.

Other teams are now going to be faced with similar conundrums going forward. Exhibit A would be the Toronto Maple Leafs and Mitch Marner, who will be an unrestricted free agent on July 1. Marner topped 100 points this season for the first time in his career and has been a dominant regular-season player, though he doesn’t have the playoff success of Rantanen. With a rising cap, will the Leafs be comfortable paying Marner a massive deal if things don’t turn out the way they would like this spring? If Marner walks, they could add multiple players in free agency to replace him, but no one will have his high-end talent or the ability to take over a game. Rantanen could be a cautionary tale because if Marner gets to free agency. He could choose his destination, and the Leafs may end up seeing him regularly in an opponent’s or even a rival’s uniform.

On Monday night, the NHL conducted its draft lottery, and we watched the New York Islanders capture the No. 1 pick in this summer’s draft. The Islanders, and all the other teams selecting early in the draft, will be hoping to pick a player they can cultivate and develop into someone like Rantanen. If you already have a Rantanen, don’t let him go unless you have no other options, or you’ll suddenly find yourself in a position where you’re forever trying to replace him.

Cole Perfetti, Winnipeg Jets 

Cole Perfetti will never have to pay for a meal or drink in Winnipeg again.  

His two goals in Game 7 against the St. Louis Blues, including that incredible tying goal with less than two seconds left, saved the Jets’ season. Perfetti’s efforts in that winner-takes-all game made him a hero, but in reality, his game had been trending in a positive direction all series.  

It’s taken a while for Perfetti to carve out an identity in Winnipeg. A lifelong centre, Perfetti has played mostly on the wing with the Jets and hasn’t always had his coach’s trust. He often played sparingly and down the lineup under Rick Bowness, and this year, for Scott Arniel, he only saw a marginal bump in minutes. The 23-year-old barely averaged 15 minutes a game in the regular season, and some nights it was much less than that. Back in early March, Perfetti played just 9:24 in a game against the Carolina Hurricanes.  

Perfetti’s ice time has increased in the post-season, but he’s also learning to make the most of his minutes. Despite being under six feet, Perfetti is becoming somewhat of a presence around the net and generating offence from dirty areas. Both of Perfetti’s goals against the Blues in Game 7 came off deflections near the net, and that equalled his total for tip-in goals from the entire regular season.  

The Jets forward also really stood out after Round 1 in some other areas. He was tied for third in high-danger shots on goal with 11, and only Auston Matthews had more scoring chances than Perfetti among players who advanced to the second round. Plus, Perfetti ranked second in the playoffs for expected goals off rebounds at the end of the first round.  

Perfetti isn’t going to become a dominant power forward in the NHL because of his size, but he’s definitely starting to hone his craft when playing around the net. You don’t have to be the biggest player in the world to succeed on the wing if you are as crafty as Perfetti.

Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights 

The Vegas Golden Knights should have an advantage in goal over the Edmonton Oilers, though we haven’t seen it yet.  

Hill had a particularly rough outing in Game 1, allowing four goals, which included the game winner by Zach Hyman from a different area code. Known for his knack at poking pucks in around the crease, Hyman beat Hill from the distance and that’s all Edmonton needed to get off to a running start in the series. Following that contest, Hill’s save percentage dipped to a brutal .876, and he got off to a rocky start in Game 2, allowing four goals on the first 18 shots he faced. That included questionable goals by Vasily Podkolzin and Darnell Nurse, which again were from a spot where Hill needed to make a save. 

Hill’s play is a big departure from what we’re used to seeing from him in the spring. It was just two years ago when Hill led Vegas to the Stanley Cup, knocking out Edmonton along the way and finishing with a sparkling .932 save percentage in those playoffs. He proved that wasn’t a fluke by posting a .931 in limited action in the 2023-24 post-season. The Golden Knights need that version of Hill back if they plan to slow down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Just ask the Los Angeles Kings how much damage they can do — and how quickly they can take over a series.

Calvin Pickard has been a great story so far in the playoffs, but he’s a career backup, and Hill needs to outplay him if Vegas is going to have any chance at coming back against the Oilers. The Edmonton netminder had just three post-season appearances prior to taking over for Skinner against the Kings, whereas Hill has the experience of a deep playoff run in his pocket. If Hill can’t channel that magic once again, expect the result to be much different between the Oilers and Vegas this time around.  

Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes 

Frederik Andersen continues to turn back the clock in these playoffs.  

The 35-year-old has been excellent for the Hurricanes, sporting a .930 save percentage. In six appearances this post-season, he’s only allowed one goal in four of those games. In the other two contests, he hasn’t allowed more than three. What’s also been impressive about Andersen’s play is that he’s still managed to stay sharp despite often not facing a heavy workload. Carolina is great at limiting shots on goal, and while on the surface that can obviously benefit a goalie, it’s also more challenging to stay sharp when you’re going stretches without much work.

Take Andersen’s Game 1 win against Washington, for example, as the Canes netminder faced just 14 shots in the overtime win but was still effective when called upon. Andersen had little room for error, and one mistake could have given the game to the Capitals. He made a few key stops down the stretch to help ensure a win for the Canes.

These efforts recently earned Andersen a one-year contract extension with a $2.7 million AAV, keeping him in the fold for at least another season to pair with Pyotr Kochetkov. It was supposed to be Kochetkov’s net at this point, but the veteran Andersen continues to prove that he’s the best option for a team built to win right now. That’s because it was an unexpected down year for Kochetkov, as the 25-year-old saw his save percentage dip below .900, and he failed to cement himself as the starter despite Andersen dealing with injuries.

Even if you can’t rely on Andersen to handle a starter’s workload any longer, just having him on the roster at that cap hit for 2025-26 is going to give the Canes some flexibility between the pipes and a safety blanket to turn to if Kochetkov can’t sort his game out.  

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