UFC 315 Cage Locks: Will any new champions get crowned in Montreal?
There have been seven UFC events in Montreal since the organization debuted there in 2008 with six total championship bouts, yet only two titles have changed hands at the city’s events to date.
There have been seven UFC events in Montreal since the organization debuted there in 2008 with six total championship bouts, yet only two titles have changed hands at the city’s events to date.
Georges St-Pierre won the welterweight title in front of the home crowd when he beat Matt Serra in 2008 to avenge a previous loss, and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua knocked Lyoto Machida out in their 2010 rematch.
Will it happen for a third or potentially fourth time this weekend at UFC 315 presented by Skilled Trades College?
Saturday’s card is headlined by a welterweight title fight between Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena and features a co-main event pitting women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko against Manon Fiorot.
The 12-bout event also showcases six Canadian fighters, plus three former UFC champions on the undercard.
-
-
Watch UFC 315 on Sportsnet+
Belal Muhammad faces Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight title and women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko takes on top contender Manon Fiorot in the UFC’s anticipated return to Montreal. Watch UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10 with prelim coverage beginning 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT, and pay-per-view main card starting at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT.
Sportsnet’s trio of UFC prognosticators are riding a three-win parlay streak heading into the weekend’s action. Below is the projected bout order, plus full predictions for UFC 315:
MAIN CARD
— Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
— Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
— Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
— Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva
— Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke
— Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
— Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba
— Navajo Stirling vs. Ivan Erslan
— Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva
— Jeong-yeong Lee vs. Daniel Santos
— Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Aldo vs. Zahabi goes the distance -303
Favourite: Mike Malott -169
Underdog: Brad Katona +125
Dart Throw: Jasudavicius wins by KO/TKO/DQ +700
I expect Aldo and Zahabi to engage in a technical chess match with both fighters being methodical throughout. A decision is the most likely outcome. … Malott being a moderate favourite is surprising to me. I think that he wins this fight at least 75 per cent of the time. … Katona has had a lot of success against Baltic fighters and has looked good in his UFC return. I think that he has value as an underdog. … Jasudavicius has the ability to utilize her range on the feet to pick Andrade off and if it goes to the ground, I think that she could overwhelm her there as well.
/* if ( "1" == true && 'undefined' !== typeof window.getIndexAds ) { var so = {preroll:{1:{1:{siteID:191888},2:{siteID:191889}}}}; adServerUrl = window.getIndexAds( 'http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?sz=640x360&cust_params=domain%3Dsportsnet.ca&iu=%2F7326%2Fen.sportsnet.web%2FVideo&ciu_szs=300x250&impl=s&gdfp_req=1&env=vp&output=vast&unviewed_position_start=1&ad_rule=1&vid=6372478482112&cmsid=384', so, permalink); } else { adServerUrl = "http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?sz=640x360&cust_params=domain%3Dsportsnet.ca&iu=%2F7326%2Fen.sportsnet.web%2FVideo&ciu_szs=300x250&impl=s&gdfp_req=1&env=vp&output=vast&unviewed_position_start=1&ad_rule=1&vid=6372478482112&cmsid=384"; } */ adServerUrl = "http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?sz=640x360&cust_params=domain%3Dsportsnet.ca&iu=%2F7326%2Fen.sportsnet.web%2FVideo&ciu_szs=300x250&impl=s&gdfp_req=1&env=vp&output=vast&unviewed_position_start=1&ad_rule=1&vid=6372478482112&cmsid=384"; var adServerUrl_result = adServerUrl.includes("cust_params"); var queryString=''; if(adServerUrl_result){ var gettheDUFI = false; if (localStorage.getItem("consent") !== null && localStorage.getItem("consent-targeting") !== null) gettheDUFI = localStorage.getItem("theRED_loc");
if(gettheDUFI){ queryString += "dufiid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; queryString += "ppid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; var ppid = "ppid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; }
var DUFI_IP = false; if (localStorage.getItem("consent") !== null && localStorage.getItem("consent-targeting") !== null) DUFI_IP = sessionStorage.getItem("DUFI_IP");
if(DUFI_IP){ queryString += "dufiip=" + DUFI_IP + '&'; }
adServerUrl = adServerUrl.replace(/cust_params=/, ppid + 'cust_params=' + encodeURIComponent(queryString) ); }
$el.after( unescape("%3Cscript src=\"" + (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js\" %3E%3C/script%3E") );
$( document ).one( 'ready', function() { $( "#video_container-315718" ).SNPlayer( { bc_account_id: "1704050871", bc_player_id: "JCdte3tMv", //autoplay: true, //is_has_autoplay_switch: false, bc_videos: 6372478482112, is_has_continuous_play: "false", adserverurl: adServerUrl, section: "", thumbnail: "https://www.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/6372478482112-1024x576.jpg", direct_url: "https://www.sportsnet.ca/ufc/video/jasudavicius-expecting-an-aggressive-fight-against-andrade-at-ufc-315/" }); });
DAN’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Benoit Saint Denis to win outright -1000
Favourite: Belal Muhammad -178
Underdog: Aiemann Zahabi +175
Dart Throw: Muhammad wins inside the distance +400
In all honesty, I will be cheering for Kyle Prepolec and hope he can pull off a fantastic Cinderella story, but MMA rarely offers up these real-life fairytale endings. Saint Denis is among the top lightweights in the division and determined to get back in the win column. I will leave it at that and hope Prepolec pulls off the MMA heist of 2025. … I expect Muhammad to be back at his smothering best and to successfully defend his title for the first time. I’m doubling down on him as a dart throw because we haven’t seen Jack Della Maddalena compete in over a year. To throw him into a five-round fight against one of the best gas tanks in the sport is a tall order. I can see Belal wearing him down over 15 minutes and finding a finish in the championship rounds. … I can’t believe Zahabi is an underdog. He has won five in a row and will have the backing of the entire building. I don’t think the atmosphere will impact a legend like Aldo but he is at the tail end of his career and coming off a decision loss Mario Bautista in October. Unless Zahabi makes some glaring mistakes, I think he gets his hand raised and sends the Montreal crowd into a frenzy.
/* if ( "1" == true && 'undefined' !== typeof window.getIndexAds ) { var so = {preroll:{1:{1:{siteID:191888},2:{siteID:191889}}}}; adServerUrl = window.getIndexAds( 'http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?sz=640x360&cust_params=domain%3Dsportsnet.ca&iu=%2F7326%2Fen.sportsnet.web%2FVideo&ciu_szs=300x250&impl=s&gdfp_req=1&env=vp&output=vast&unviewed_position_start=1&ad_rule=1&vid=6372578800112&cmsid=384', so, permalink); } else { adServerUrl = "http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?sz=640x360&cust_params=domain%3Dsportsnet.ca&iu=%2F7326%2Fen.sportsnet.web%2FVideo&ciu_szs=300x250&impl=s&gdfp_req=1&env=vp&output=vast&unviewed_position_start=1&ad_rule=1&vid=6372578800112&cmsid=384"; } */ adServerUrl = "http://pubads.g.doubleclick.net/gampad/ads?sz=640x360&cust_params=domain%3Dsportsnet.ca&iu=%2F7326%2Fen.sportsnet.web%2FVideo&ciu_szs=300x250&impl=s&gdfp_req=1&env=vp&output=vast&unviewed_position_start=1&ad_rule=1&vid=6372578800112&cmsid=384"; var adServerUrl_result = adServerUrl.includes("cust_params"); var queryString=''; if(adServerUrl_result){ var gettheDUFI = false; if (localStorage.getItem("consent") !== null && localStorage.getItem("consent-targeting") !== null) gettheDUFI = localStorage.getItem("theRED_loc");
if(gettheDUFI){ queryString += "dufiid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; queryString += "ppid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; var ppid = "ppid=" + gettheDUFI + '&'; }
var DUFI_IP = false; if (localStorage.getItem("consent") !== null && localStorage.getItem("consent-targeting") !== null) DUFI_IP = sessionStorage.getItem("DUFI_IP");
if(DUFI_IP){ queryString += "dufiip=" + DUFI_IP + '&'; }
adServerUrl = adServerUrl.replace(/cust_params=/, ppid + 'cust_params=' + encodeURIComponent(queryString) ); }
$el.after( unescape("%3Cscript src=\"" + (document.location.protocol == "https:" ? "https://sb" : "http://b") + ".scorecardresearch.com/beacon.js\" %3E%3C/script%3E") );
$( document ).one( 'ready', function() { $( "#video_container-338883" ).SNPlayer( { bc_account_id: "1704050871", bc_player_id: "JCdte3tMv", //autoplay: true, //is_has_autoplay_switch: false, bc_videos: 6372578800112, is_has_continuous_play: "false", adserverurl: adServerUrl, section: "", thumbnail: "https://www.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/6372578800112-1024x576.jpg", direct_url: "https://www.sportsnet.ca/ufc/video/zahabi-on-taking-aldo-fight-after-weight-miss-theres-opportunity-in-risk/" }); });
MIKE’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Navajo Stirling -333
Favourite: Belal Muhammad -178
Underdog: Jessica Andrade +240
Dart Throw: Ion Cutelaba by submission in Round 2-3 +1900
Going with the welterweight champ to retain his gold this weekend based on experience, strength of schedule and proven conditioning – not to mention he’s just an easy guy to cheer for. … Had to do a double take on the Andrade vs. Jasudavicius odds because while Jasmine should absolutely be the favourite, this line feels far too wide to count out a former champ like Andrade who has serious power in her hands. … Stirling is one of the more promising 205-pounders on the rise and his matchup with Erslan could result in a highlight finish in what could be a standup slugfest. … Every single Cutelaba fight is bonkers so whatever happens it’ll be entertaining.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Aldo vs. Zahabi goes distance + Saint Denis + Stirling
Parlay odds: -111 (to win: $90.23)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 15 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 9-6 (W3)
2025 winnings: +$424.67 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+9.08 units)
Best bet: 13-2 (+$82.43)
Favourite: 6-9 (-$579.70)
Underdog: 9-5-1 (+$705.24)
Dart throw: 4-11 (+$700)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-1.12 units)
Best bet: 14-1 (+$191.77)
Favourite: 8-7 (-$224.37)
Underdog: 10-5 (+$860.24)
Dart throw: 1-14 (-$940)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-13.52 units)
Best bet: 11-4 (+$28.65)
Favourite: 9-6 (+$124.74)
Underdog: 5-9-1 (-$5)
Dart throw: 0-15 (-$1,500)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
