What to watch for as Trump meets Canada's Carney for first time

Canada’s newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to visit the White House on Tuesday for a high-stakes meeting with President Trump amid an ongoing trade battle between the North American neighbors. 

Tensions between Ottawa and Washington have been strained by Trump’s sweeping tariffs and his proposal for Canada to merge with the U.S. 

Fresh off his election last week to succeed former leader Justin Trudeau, Carney has already warned that “our old relationship, based on steadily increasing integration, is over.” Meanwhile, Trump has signaled optimism ahead of the visit, predicting that the pair will have “a great relationship.”

Here’s what to watch as the two leaders sit down:

Tariff threat tit-for-tat

Trump’s tariffs have roiled world markets and leaders alike, kickstarting trade showdowns with key allies. 

In on-again, off-again moves over the past several weeks, Trump has levied tariffs against Canada, one of its top trading partners, and Canada has hit back with import taxes of its own.

Trump and Carney will meet Tuesday in Washington against the backdrop of their two nation’s contentious tit-for-tat over tariffs, and amid questions about what a deal could look like.

“He’s coming to see me. I’m not sure what he wants to see me about, but I guess he wants to make a deal — everybody does. They all want to make a deal because we have something they all want,” Trump said Monday. 

Carney has said that a call with Trump last week was “very constructive” and signaled optimism about negotiations.

“He respects, as others who are good negotiators — and he’s one of the best negotiators — they respect strength. That’s why we’re building Canada strong,” Carney said of Trump. 

A YouGov survey of Canadians last month found that just 25 percent of Canadians considered the U.S. "friendly" or an "ally" amid the trade tensions. Twenty percent called their neighbor nation an "enemy" and 44 percent labeled it "unfriendly."

Trump's 51st state talk

Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of a merger between the United States and Canada, suggesting that the independent nation should “become the 51st state” and drawing sharp pushback from Canadian leaders. 

He told Time magazine in an interview late last month that he was “really not trolling” with his territorial expansion talk, calling Canada “an interesting case.”

“We’re taking care of their military. We're taking care of every aspect of their lives, and we don't need them to make cars for us. In fact, we don't want them to make cars for us. We want to make our own cars. We don't need their lumber. We don't need their energy. We don't need anything from Canada. And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state," the president claimed.

Carney, on the other hand, said last week that Trump’s idea — which polls as an unpopular hypothetical in among Canadians — will “never, ever” happen under his watch. 

The prime minister has also announced that King Charles will visit Canada later this month, a notable reminder that, while Canada is an independent nation, the monarch is its head of state. 

“This historic honour matches the weight of our times,” Carney said in a statement. “Canada has a steadfast defender in our sovereign.”

Reset after Trudeau 

Carney used his victory speech last month to underscore that “our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over.”

“As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country,” Carney said. “These are not idle threats. President Trump is trying to break us so America can own us. That will never … ever happen.”

“But we also must recognize the reality that our world has fundamentally changed,” he added.

Carney, a former central banker, became the Liberal Party’s leader in March after Trudeau’s resignation. He inherited the U.S-Canada tensions and tariffs, and Tuesday’s meeting could also reveal whether he’ll receive the same ire Trump had pointed toward his predecessor. 

Trump had jabbed at Trudeau, who served as prime minister for nearly a decade, as Canada’s “governor” in a nod to his annexation ideas. 

But Trump said during a Cabinet meeting last week that he thinks Washington and Ottawa are “going to have a great relationship" and described Carney as “a very nice gentleman.” 

“It was the one that hated Trump, I think, the least that won,” Trump said. 

Trump has held meetings with several foreign officials at the White House since taking office in January, including one visit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that devolved into an Oval Office clash between the two leaders amid tensions over Russia's ongoing war on Kyiv.

Now, as Carney makes his first stop in Washington since his election, the spotlight is on to see how he handles Trump and the simmering trade war.

The visit also comes just weeks before Canada is set to host this year's G7 summit in June, the 50th anniversary of the world leaders' conference.