UFC Cage Locks: Brandon Moreno, Steve Erceg headline Mexico City action
The greater flyweight title picture comes into focus this weekend in Mexico City when former two-time 125-pound champ Brandon Moreno faces one-time title challenger Steve Erceg in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event.
The greater flyweight title picture comes into focus this weekend in Mexico City when former two-time 125-pound champ Brandon Moreno faces one-time title challenger Steve Erceg in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event.
Moreno is coming off a five-round unanimous decision win over Amir Albazi in November, while Erceg is looking to snap a two-fight skid that began with a competitive decision loss to the current champ, Alexandre Pantoja, in the middle of last year.
Saturday will be the fourth time Moreno has fought on home soil in the UFC yet surprisingly he is 0-2-1 when competing at UFC events located in Mexico.
The event also features an anticipated co-main event between lightweight finishers Manuel Torres and Drew Dober, plus Joe Pyfer looks for the biggest win of his career when he faces Kelvin Gastelum in middleweight action.
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UFC on Sportsnet
Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno fights at home against Steve Erceg in the main event of a UFC Fight Night in Mexico City. Watch the action on Saturday, March 29, on Sportsnet 360 and Sportsnet+ with coverage beginning at 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT.
UFC Mexico City takes place at Arena CDMX and features a 13-bout lineup. All but one athlete successfully made weight Friday morning at the official weigh-in.
Ronaldo Rodriguez missed by one pound ahead of his scheduled flyweight contest with Kevin Borjas. Mexico’s Rodriguez stepped on the scale at 127 pounds, which is one pound above the non-title flyweight limit, and he will be fined but the bout will proceed at a catchweight.
Fellow Mexican flyweight Edgar Chairez was the final fighter to step on the scale on Friday and he just snuck under the limit coming in at an event 126 pounds. Chairez faces C.J. Vergara in the card’s featured preliminary bout.
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Complete bout order and full predictions below:
MAIN CARD
— Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg
— Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober
— Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer
— Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Vince Morales
— David Martinez vs. Saimon Oliveira
— Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Edgar Chairez vs. C.J. Vergara
— Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ateba Abega Gautier
— Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa
— Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri
— Rafa García vs. Vinc Pichel
— Jamall Emmers vs. Gabriel Miranda
— Austin Hubbard vs. MarQuel Mederos
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Best bet: David Martinez to win outright -455
Favourite: Christian Rodriguez -150
Underdog: Kevin Borjas +130
Dart throw: Vince Morales by decision +600
Saimon Oliveira has been fairly inactive and David Martinez is a surging prospect who should be able to win this fight wherever it goes. … Christian Rodriguez continues to be underrated when it comes to his odds and I think there is value with him as a small favourite against Costa. … Morales is a crafty, seasoned veteran and is in desperate need of a win after the UFC granted him a second chance. I think that he will give Rosas Jr. all that he can handle.
DAN’S PICKS
Best bet: Raul Rosas Jr. to win outright -330
Favourite: Ronaldo Rodriguez -154
Underdog: Melquizael Costa +140
Dart throw: Ronaldo Rodriguez by TKO/KO +600
Chiwiwis all around as Raul Rosas Jr. cruises to victory on Saturday. … Ronaldo Rodriguez is also a lock in my opinion for what should be a routine victory in front of a raucous home crowd. I also think there’s a good chance he can KO his opponent, so I will double down on Ronaldo as a dart throw. … Costa keeps upsetting the odds. He’s a heavy hitter with a solid ground game and always a submission threat. Surprised he is still the underdog here considering his opponent is one fight removed from a submission loss.
MIKE’S PICKS
Best bet: Edgar Chairez -278
Favourite: Brandon Moreno -250
Underdog: Gabriel Miranda +375
Dart throw: Manuel Torres to win by split or majority decision +2500
The longer the main event goes the more it should favour the former champion. Erceg has the tools to be a champion but the timing and circumstances of this particular matchup with Moreno have him fighting an uphill battle. … I get why Emmers is favoured over Miranda (more well-rounded with more ways to win) but the line being this wide against Miranda doesn’t feel right. Can’t wait for this co-main between Torres and Dober. It could end super early but if they settle into things it could go longer and if it does it has the potential to be one of the best and bloodiest fights in the first half of 2025.
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CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Martinez + Rosas Jr. + Chairez
Parlay odds: +116 (to win: $116.11)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 10 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 5-5 (L1)
2025 winnings: -$64.77 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+5.46 units)
Best bet: 8-2 (-$52.01)
Favourite: 3-7 (-$546.81)
Underdog: 6-3-1 (+$545.24)
Dart throw: 3-7 (+$600)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+0.80 units)
Best bet: 9-1 (+$76.37)
Favourite: 5-5 (-$166.27)
Underdog: 7-3 (+$610.24)
Dart throw: 1-9 (-$440)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-8.76 units)
Best bet: 7-3 (-$112.35)
Favourite: 5-5 (-$39.29)
Underdog: 4-5-1 (+$275)
Dart throw: 0-10 (-$1,000)
Best bet: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
