UFC Cage Locks: Bo Nickal, Cory Sandhagen listed as huge favourites
The UFC touches down in Des Moines, Iowa for the first time this weekend with a Fight Night card headlined by standout bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo.
The UFC touches down in Des Moines, Iowa for the first time this weekend with a card headlined by standout bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo.
The winner of Saturday’s five-round UFC Fight Night main event will remain in title contention at 135 pounds and will keep a close eye on next month’s UFC 316 main event rematch between reigning bantamweight kingpin Merab Dvalishvili and former champ Sean O’Malley.
Sandhagen is a massive -588 betting favourite over the former flyweight champion and looking to bounce back from a five-round unanimous decision loss to recent title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov last August. Figueiredo is a +425 dog coming off his first loss since moving up to bantamweight, a five-round unanimous decision to former titleholder Petr Yan in December.
Saturday’s 12-fight card features a co-main event between rising middleweight contenders Bo Nickal and Reinier de Ridder. Nickal is undefeated as a professional mixed martial artist, while de Ridder is coming off back-to-back submission wins in 2024 after joining the UFC last year.
Sportsnet coverage for UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo begins 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on Sportsnet 360 and Sportsnet+
A pair of Canadians are in action with Serhiy Sidey facing Cameron Smotherman in a bantamweight bout on the main card after Gillian Robertson looks to extend her current win streak against veteran Marina Rodriguez who’s looking for one more quality win before potentially hanging up her gloves.
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A couple veteran fighters that haven’t been seen in a UFC cage for a while are also set to return to action. Former women’s bantamweight champion Miesha Tate headlines the preliminary card against Yana Santos (née Kunitskaya) in just her fifth fight since 2016. Jeremy Stephens last fought in the UFC in 2021 and the veteran knockout artist is making his return to MMA following his recent successful run as a bareknuckle boxer. Stephens kicks off the main card as an underdog against streaking Welshman Mason Jones.
All 24 athletes scheduled to compete at Wells Fargo Arena successfully made weight Friday morning at the official weigh-in.
Below is the projected bout order plus full picks and predictions…
MAIN CARD
— Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
— Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
— Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez
— Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos
— Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey
— Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Yana Santos vs. Miesha Tate
— Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev
— Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson
— Gaston Bolanos vs. Quang Le
— Thomas Petersen vs. Don’Tale Mayes
— Juliana Miller vs. Ivana Petrovic
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Thomas Peterson to win outright -250
Favourite: Montel Jackson -200
Underdog: Daniel Rodriguez +110
Dart Throw: Rodriguez vs. Ponzinibbio ends in split decision +450
Don’Tale Mayes gave up nearly 12 minutes of control against Shamil Gaziev and if Peterson utilizes a wrestling-heavy game plan, I could see that happening here as well. … Montel Jackson is one of the most underrated bantamweights in the promotion and if anyone can test the durability of Marcos, it is him. … Rodriguez and Ponzinibbio will be a very competitive fight and a split decision is certainly within the realm of possibility. These are two gritty fighters who typically go the distance, at least in recent years. I slightly lean Rodriguez in what should be a close, gritty fight with Ponzinibbio and with him being a small underdog, I like the value.
DAN’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Mason Jones to win outright -589
Favourite: Miesha Tate -143
Underdog: Daniel Rodriguez +110
Dart Throw: Mayes by KO/TKO/DQ +450
Last week was a reminder that there are no “safe” picks in MMA. I went for the low hanging fruit and ended up going 2-2, but thankfully defeat is always momentary and we have another slate of great bouts to seek redemption. Miesha Tate looked amazing in her last bout against Julia Avila. If she can replicate that showing from December of 2023, there’s no doubt she wins. Tate’s been away from the Octagon for a year, but class is permanent…and class could be in session on Saturday. … I’m going with Rodriguez only because he is the slight underdog in what amounts to a pick’em. Should be great entertainment against the hard-hitting Santiago Ponzinibbio. … I don’t have too much faith in the dart throw, but if there is a path to victory for Don’Tale Mayes it could very well be by KO. He will have a distinct height and reach advantage here and Peterson is coming off a recent KO loss to Shamil Gaziev.
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MIKE’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Gillian Robertson to win outright -333
Favourite: Miesha Tate -143
Underdog: Ryan Loder +305
Dart Throw: Bo Nickal by KO/TKO in Round 1 or Round 3 +950
Sneaky awesome card we’ve got here, folks. I think we see a highlight finish in the co-main event and lean towards Nickal’s power ultimately being the difference. Nickal’s most recent win was a lacklustre striking match with little grappling. This one with de Ridder could be the complete opposite. … Staying at 185 pounds, Ryan Loder will be in tough against Azamat Bekoev who will pose a KO threat but last year’s TUF 32 middleweight tournament winner has excellent grappling and could take that route to get the upset. … Robertson’s grappling is the likely difference versus Rodriguez. She should be able to drag the fight to the mat and from there will be able to control the action. Also going with Tate as chalk for basically the same reasons.
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Thomas Peterson + Mason Jones + Gillian Robertson
Parlay odds: +113 (to win: $112.95)
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2025 STANDINGS AFTER 14 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 8-6 (W2)
2025 winnings: +$311.72 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+8.08 units)
Best bet: 12-2 (+$42.43)
Favourite: 5-9 (-$629.70)
Underdog: 8-5-1 (+$595.24)
Dart throw: 4-10 (+$800)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-0.39 units)
Best bet: 13-1 (+$174.79)
Favourite: 8-6 (-$124.37)
Underdog: 9-5 (+$750.24)
Dart throw: 1-13 (-$840)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-10.81 units)
Best bet: 10-4 (-$1.38)
Favourite: 9-5 (+$224.74)
Underdog: 5-8-1 (+$95)
Dart throw: 0-14 (-$1,400)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
