The Top 10 Democratic contenders for 2028

A cardinal rule of American politics: It’s never too early to start thinking about the next election.

Some Democrats are already making moves that have stoked 2028 speculation, from California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s podcasts to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (N.Y.) recent series of rallies alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Right now, the field is wide open as there is no obvious front-runner. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has kept a relatively low profile since her loss to President Trump last November, and, even if she ran, she’d face serious opposition.

It’s almost three years before the first primaries will be held, but here are The Hill’s initial rankings of the 2028 Democratic contenders.

1. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.)

Ocasio-Cortez is simply the most exciting figure in Democratic politics.

Yes, she has a legion of detractors. But she also has charisma, authenticity and the ability to draw huge crowds to see her speak.

The "Fighting Oligarchy" tour with Sanders has felt like a passing of the torch. The 35-year-old AOC, as she is almost universally known, seems the obvious inheritor of Sanders’s mantle as the de facto leader of the left. Sanders, now 83, will surely never be a national candidate again.

There is no one else in the left-wing "lane" who could come close to competing with Ocasio-Cortez in a primary. That’s a real advantage in a race that could have a plethora of center-left candidates splitting the more moderate vote.

There are plenty of reasons for some Democrats to balk at the thought of Ocasio-Cortez as the party’s nominee.

Her youth itself could be a problem for some voters. Her haters loathe her just as passionately as her fans love her. And, perhaps most importantly of all, would a left-wing Latina from New York City really be the best option for a party that needs to win states like Michigan and Pennsylvania to take back the White House?

Still, Ocasio-Cortez’s deftness as a politician is sometimes overlooked. She is the leading Democrat of the social media age and a fundraising powerhouse.

The latest figures show she raised more than $9 million in the first quarter — an astronomical sum for a House member in a safe seat.

For now, she’d be the person to beat in a primary.

2. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro has been in the news for rather grim reasons over the past week, after an arsonist struck the governor’s mansion in Harrisburg, Pa.

The suspect may suffer from mental illness but also allegedly cited the conflict in Gaza as a motivation in the attack. Shapiro, who is Jewish, has been among the most pro-Israel leading figures in the Democratic Party.

In any event, Shapiro is also among the most likely people to emerge as a real center-left challenger to a progressive like Ocasio-Cortez.

His boosters note his history of high approval ratings in his home state, his tendency to avoid a focus on divisive issues and his abilities as an orator — even though his speaking style sometimes elicits wry questions as to whether he is impersonating former President Obama.

Asked by Bill Maher last month whether he would run for president in 2028, the Pennsylvania governor dodged — and left the door wide open.

“I’m not an expert in the D.C. stuff,” he said. “I live in the real world in Pennsylvania, where we have to balance budgets.”

It helps, of course, that Shapiro is from such an electorally crucial state.

Democrats had cause to reflect, rather ruefully, on Shapiro’s strengths following Harris’s November loss to Trump. The Pennsylvania governor had been among the finalists to be her running mate, only for Harris to eventually go for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz instead.

3. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Every picture tells a story — and the recent shot of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in the Oval Office, putting a binder over her face to prevent photographs, tells a bad one for the Michigan governor.

In fairness to Whitmer, there have been suggestions that she was basically set up by Trump aides on that occasion.

Whitmer apparently had gone to the White House to meet with Trump about issues related to Michigan and the Great Lakes region. USA Today and other sources have reported she did not expect to be ushered into the Oval Office while Trump signed executive orders in front of the media.

Anyhow, primary voters in early 2028 will surely not be casting their ballots based on a single awkward experience in 2025.

Whitmer has a winning record in a key swing state and a sense of Midwestern practicality — “Fix the damn roads!” was a previous campaign slogan — and she has helped lead her party in the battle for abortion rights.

The Michigan governor also benefits from a public persona that is no-nonsense and humorous, helping make her a talk-show favorite.

If she runs, she’d instantly be seen as a top-tier contender.

4. California Gov. Gavin Newsom

Timing is everything, and the political calendar falls nicely for California Gov. Gavin Newsom. He will be term-limited out of office after the 2026 elections, just as the primary campaign looms.

The governor of the nation's most populous state is an effective speaker and TV performer. He has tangled with Trump but he’s also tried more recently to reach out beyond the traditional Democratic base. Trenchantly right-wing guests including Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk have featured on his new podcast.

Newsom also emerged relatively unscathed, politically speaking, from the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires — unlike the city’s mayor, Karen Bass.

Still, there are lingering questions around Newsom’s authenticity. And his overall persona — the classic affluent, tanned, liberal Californian — doesn’t exactly recommend him as the best candidate to carry the Rust Belt.

5. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore

Wes Moore is a candidate on the rise. He’s a powerful speaker, youthful at just 46, and a barrier-breaker as Maryland’s first Black governor.

He’s also media friendly — and has a big fan in Oprah Winfrey, who attended his inauguration. Moore may have potential to knit together the centrist and progressive sides of the Democratic Party.

He has only recently become nationally prominent, having been first elected in 2022. That could be an asset, to the extent that he’s not part of the political establishment, or a liability if a lack of experience leads to mistakes.

There’s something else that could go in Moore’s favor. If Democrats keep the same primary calendar as last time, South Carolina would be the first state to vote. Black voters usually cast around half of all the votes in the Palmetto State’s Democratic primary.

6. Former Vice President Kamala Harris

Harris is one of the most difficult of the Top 10 candidates to rank.

Early opinion polls tend to put her at the top of the heap. But that seems highly likely to be a consequence of name recognition more than anything else.

Harris’s campaign-trail performance as the 2024 nominee was by no means disastrous. She made a decent run while facing a steep gradient caused by multiple factors: then-President Biden’s unpopularity, the political wound that had been inflicted by high inflation, and the intense drama leading up to Biden’s withdrawal.

But she still lost. The initial excitement she spurred among Democrats seemed to fade. If there were high points, like her strong performance in her only TV debate with Trump, there were low ones too, like her telling the hosts of ABC’s “The View” that she couldn’t think of anything she would have done differently from Biden.

It’s far from clear Harris will run again, and a recent New York Times story suggested she might prefer to seek the governorship of California when Newsom leaves.

Either way, it’s hard to discern any ravenous appetite among the Democratic base for a third presidential campaign for Harris, after the 2024 effort and an underwhelming campaign in 2020.

7. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has brought plenty of fire to his verbal fights with Trump, on at least one occasion drawing a parallel between the new administration and the Nazis.

He has repeatedly argued that Trump is undercutting fundamental American values and has promised to do everything he can to stymie the MAGA agenda, including through the courts.

As the governor of a big state, Pritzker would demand real attention. A billionaire thanks primarily to his family’s ownership of the Hyatt hotel chain, he would also have all the resources he needs.

But whether he can maneuver past the people higher on this list is in doubt. His vast wealth also has its liabilities in a party where billionaires are more often excoriated than celebrated.

8. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg had an impressive early showing during the 2020 Democratic primaries, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire.

He is one of the very best media performers in the party — a skill set he seems to relish putting to use in Fox News appearances.

Buttigieg has many fans among the party’s younger, more affluent supporters.

But he struggled badly with Black voters in 2020, and the highest elected office he’s ever held is mayor.

9. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel

Rahm Emanuel has been reestablishing a high media profile now that his stint as U.S. ambassador to Japan is over.

In appearances with the likes of Maher, he has argued that his party has put too much focus on social issues, like trans rights, and too little on fighting crime and improving schools.

Emanuel is a storied figure in the party, having served as Obama’s chief of staff, an aide to former President Clinton and as an Illinois congressman. He’s a classic political fighter.

But he is widely disliked on the left, and he has a real vulnerability with progressives and Black voters over his conduct around the killing of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald by a Chicago police officer.

Emanuel, Chicago mayor at the time, controversially delayed the release of dashcam video of the murder.

10. Media commentator Stephen A. Smith

Stephen A. Smith, best known for his ebullient sports analysis, seems determined to vault himself to the front if Democrats want a nonpolitician.

Smith has talked about being approached by unnamed officials to run, and he has lamented Democrats’ lack of direction.

Most political insiders think it’s all really about Smith’s penchant for self-promotion.

Then again, that’s what everyone thought about Trump a decade ago.

Also in the mix: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.) , Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.), Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), Sen. Jon Ossoff (Ga.), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.