Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Preview: Stars vs. Avalanche
In a re-match of a 2024 Round 2 series, Colorado and Dallas are both top-level contenders for the Stanley Cup, but someone’s season will end too early. Ryan Dixon gets you set for this series that is dripping with drama.
Take a bow, hockey gods.
The A-level plot of an opening-round series between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche is enough to sustain any hockey viewer. These are two top-level clubs with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations clashing in a re-match of a 2024 second-round series.
Throw in the best B-level plot of the first round, though, and you’ve got must-see action, regardless of whether you support either squad.
In late January, the Avs shocked the hockey world by sending pending-UFA Mikko Rantanen — one of the best wingers in the world and a vital member of the club’s 2022 championship — to the Carolina Hurricanes. When it became clear that was not a long-term marriage, Rantanen was on the move again and wound up in Texas with a big eight-year contract extension to boot.
Now, he and the Stars are set to battle a Colorado club he spent a decade with.
Beyond the Rantanen saga, there’s all kinds of big-picture intrigue attached to this matchup. Dallas — which defeated Colorado in six games last season — has been a final-four club each of the past two springs, but has not been able to get over the top. Colorado, of course, summited the mountain in 2022 and has gone all in this year in pursuit of a second title.
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Speaking of Colorado’s 2022 Cup, Avs captain Gabriel Landeskog had not played a pro hockey game since that title-clinching victory three years ago in Tampa Bay until suiting up for the AHL’s Colorado Eagles last weekend. Now, incredibly, all signs point to the 32-year-old Swede returning to the Avs lineup for the post-season.
The fact that is the second-biggest storyline we’re dealing with here hammers home the notion this series is dripping with drama.
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORDS
Dallas Stars: 1-1-1
Colorado Avalanche: 2-1-0
THE BREAKDOWN
The Stars have been playing without Miro Heiskanen since late January and GM Jim Nill has confirmed the stud defenceman will not be ready to return from knee surgery in time for Game 1. That’s a huge blow to a Dallas club trying to stop a team with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar at the top of the lineup. Heiskanen has not been ruled out for the entire series, but obviously it’s concerning that he won’t be ready to go from the jump and would be dropping back in to incredibly high-level, physically demanding hockey. Heiskanen was a beast last year versus Colorado, scoring four goals and eight points in the six-game victory for Dallas.
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In Heiskanen’s absence, Thomas Harley has really stepped up. The defenceman who won the 4 Nations Face-Off playing alongside MacKinnon and Makar on Canada just continues to evolve into one of the best two-way blue-liners in hockey. Since Heiskanen left the lineup, Harley has nine goals and 27 points in 29 outings; the only D-men in the entire league with more points during that span are Makar (36), Rasmus Dahlin (33) and Evan Bouchard (29). Still, seeing the Avs’ top gunners all game long, every other night for two weeks is going to be a big ask.
While Colorado will always be driven by what MacKinnon and Makar do, it’s positively striking to see how different — and well-balanced — this forward group looks from opening night.
Before we get to the trades — and there are a lot of them — consider Valeri Nichushkin missed nearly half the season for multiple reasons. First, there was a six-month suspension — originally applied right in the middle of last year’s series with Dallas — while he was in Stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program. Then there was the lower-body injury that basically sidelined him for January and February. When Nichushkin is in the lineup, he’s scored at a 40-goal pace.
Throw in the potential return of Landeskog after a three-year absence — even if it’s on a third line — and those are two pieces the team either played half or basically the entire year without.
Then there are the swaps.
Before Christmas, Colorado GM Chris MacFarland completely rebuilt his goaltending battery by acquiring Scott Wedgewood and Mackenzie Blackwood. In the New Year, MacFarland went about remaking the forward crew. Skilled winger Martin Necas came over in the original Rantanen deal with Carolina, but the more notable development might be the centre depth acquired before the trade deadline. Colorado is now running out a middleman crew that has Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle coming on the ice after MacKinnon. That is certainly the best the Avalanche have looked down the middle since Nazem Kadri departed following the 2022 title. Nelson and Coyle are both playoff-tested veterans who, in different capacities, could really raise Colorado’s post-season floor.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 totals from Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON STATS
Stars X-Factor: Roope Hintz
Hintz had a tough go in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He was forced out of Game 4 versus the Avalanche and didn’t return until Game 3 of the conference final against Edmonton. Dallas lost its final three games of the post-season and Hintz failed to register a point in any of them. The Stars top-line centre wound up with eight points in 15 playoff games and half of them came in one outing versus Colorado.
One year prior, Hintz was a monster for Dallas in the second season, recording 24 points in 19 contests.
Will Dallas see that 2023 version of Hintz this year? The Finn came out of the 4 Nations on fire, putting up 28 points in 16 games despite missing about a week after taking a puck to the face in Edmonton.
Unfortunately for Dallas, the top line Hintz centres took a hit in the team’s final regular season game when left winger Jason Robertson sustained a lower-body injury and reportedly left Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena with a brace on his right knee.
On a more positive note, Tyler Seguin — who had not suited up since Dec. 1 thanks to hip surgery — returned to the Stars lineup in the finale.
Avalanche X-Factor: Mackenzie Blackwood
When the Avs won the 2022 title, Kadri was their second-line centre and Darcy Kuemper was their goalie. Both departed as free agents that summer and Colorado spent two-plus years insufficiently addressing both needs.
The arrival of Nelson and Coyle this year really solidified the middle of the ice. And, as noted, those moves came on the heels of MacFarland completely remaking the crease by acquiring Wedgewood in November and Blackwood in December. Since Blackwood played his first game for the club on Dec. 14, Colorado has the 10th-best 5-on-5 save percentage in the league at .917. That might not be setting the world on fire, but it’s still encouraging for a team that had the worst goals-against average (3.36) of any club to make it past Round 1 last year.
Blackwood has never played an NHL playoff game, so he’s obviously got some proving to do. Wedgewood, meanwhile, has but three career post-season appearances, all with the Stars — as it happens — in 2023.
