Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Preview: Jets vs. Blues
The Winnipeg Jets’ reward for winning the Presidents’ Trophy is a Round 1 series against St. Louis, the NHL’s best team after the 4 Nations Face-Off. Ryan Dixon breaks down this opening round meeting.
Congratulations to the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets on all their success. Their reward is facing a scorching-hot team that still has some Stanley Cup know-how on the roster from a title it won six years ago.
Schenn vs. Schenn? 4 Nations Face-Off goalie rematch?
This will be fun.
Speaking of the 4 Nations — where Blues goalie Jordan Binnington helped Canada nudge Jets star goalie Connor Hellebuyck and Team USA in the final — it was around the time of that event in early February we wondered if St. Louis might become a massive seller ahead of the trade deadline.
Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko, even Binnington himself all seemed like core pieces the Blues could conceivably move when they were eight points out of a playoff spot coming out of the break. However, the club started stringing wins together in late February, GM Doug Armstrong sat tight and, sure enough, the Blues took off. St. Louis went 18-2-1 over a 21-game stretch punctuated by a 12-game winning streak that catapulted the team into the post-season.
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The Jets, meanwhile, continued their merry way to the top of the NHL standings. While Winnipeg didn’t do anything major ahead of the deadline, they picked up Brayden’s big brother, Luke Schenn, to add some muscle on the blueline and snagged bottom-six banger Brandon Tanev — who’d previously played nearly 200 games with the team — from Seattle.
Winnipeg has won more regular season games (154) than any team in the NHL the past three years, but failed to make it out of Round 1 in 2023 and ’24. St. Louis is back in the post-season for the first time since 2022 and has won just a single playoff series since claiming the 2019 Cup.
Head-to-Head Record
Winnipeg: 3-1-0
St. Louis: 1-2-1
The Breakdown
In some ways, this is a story of continuity versus shakeup. The Jets were good out of the gate and stayed that way. St. Louis changed its coach in November — making an in-season switch for the second consecutive season — and endured ups and downs all year before it all came together at the end.
To be sure, the installment of Jim Montgomery behind the bench was a watershed moment in St. Louis’ season. While the team didn’t immediately take off with Montgomery — who was fired by the Boston Bruins despite having .715 points percentage in 184 games there — it could be argued his system took a while to implement and the Blues took off once he had them playing the way he wanted.
Another key addition — one that didn’t necessarily seem like a needle-mover at the time of the trade — was the acquisition of veteran defenceman Cam Fowler from Anaheim in mid-December. Since joining St. Louis about a week after his 33rd birthday, Fowler has produced offence at a higher clip than he’s ever recorded during a 15-year career. His nine goals and 36 points in 51 outings accounts for a 57-point pace from the back end and he’s played 21:42 per night for the Blues in that time.
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As for Winnipeg, it’s been steady at the rudder.
Mark Scheifele (87) and Kyle Connor (97) both set new career highs in points, forming a dynamic duo on the top line. After nearly a month on the shelf with an upper-body injury, Gabe Vilardi returned in the team’s final game. Unfortunately, that was paired with Nikolaj Ehlers re-aggravating an existing lower-body injury. He’s now considered week-to-week, according to coach Scott Arniel.
In terms of St. Louis’ infirmary, the Blues welcomed Parayko back to the lineup just before the end of the year after an extended injury absence, but Dylan Holloway — who’s thrived in his first season with the team after signing an offer sheet last summer — is week-to-week with an ailment.
One key dynamic to keep an eye on is the vaunted Jets power play versus the Blues penalty-kill. While St. Louis’ PK has improved greatly of late, it’s still the fifth-worst unit in the league on the season. Contrast that with Winnipeg’s NHL-best man advantage — one that’s particularly lethal on home ice, converting at a 31.6 per cent clip — and you can bet the Blues will be stressing the importance of staying out of the box.
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A lot of people wondered if Winnipeg might make a play for a second-line centre ahead of the deadline, but the team stuck with Vlad Namestnikov and Adam Lowry behind Scheifele. Seven Jets forwards managed 15 goals this year, so it’s not like all the scoring is done by the top line.
Winnipeg also got a boost on the back end when Neal Pionk returned to the lineup with three games to go in the regular season after missing a month with a lower-body injury. With Pionk — who just put pen to paper on a big, six-year extension with Winnipeg — anchoring one pair and all-world D-man Josh Morrissey leading another, the Jets will try to keep a Blues team that’s No. 2 in the league in goals per game since Feb. 1 (3.67) in check.
Advanced Stats
(5-on-5 totals from Natural Stat Trick)
Regular Season Team Stats
Jets X-factor: Connor Hellebuyck
Hellebuyck is going to win a second straight Vezina Trophy shortly and may even be named MVP of the league. That said, there’s no getting around the fact he needs to show the best version of himself this spring.
2024, in particular, was a tough post-season for the veteran goalie. Hellebuyck left Winnipeg’s five-game, first-round series with Colorado sporting an .864 save percentage. The year before, in another five-game, first-round exit, the big Yank had an .886 SV%.
Those numbers are unacceptable for any goalie, regardless of what’s going on in front of him.
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Prior to 2023, Hellebuyck posted a quality .921 save percentage in 35 career playoff games. That’s certainly something to draw on as he tries to move past the disappointment of the past two springs.
Hellebuyck is such a foundational part of the Jets that it only makes sense his personal struggles the past couple springs dovetail with the over-arching narrative that engulfs the team. This is a squad that, after winning Game 1 in each of its past two series, went on to get swept out of the playoffs with four consecutive losses. Hellebuyck and the Jets need to figure out a way to push deeper in the playoffs, even in the face of stiff competition.
Blues X-factor: Robert Thomas
There’s just so many guys on St. Louis who must be feeling fantastic right now. Start with Robert Thomas, who led the league in scoring after the 4 Nations break with 40 points in 26 games. Part of the reason St. Louis stumbled at the start of the year is because Thomas was hobbled by a fractured ankle. Now, he’s healthy and playing the best hockey of his career.
And Thomas is far from the only guy cooking in this lineup.
Jordan Kyrou has 12 goals in his past 16 outings, while Pavel Buchnevich has seven in his past 12. Some younger guys are finding the mark, too, with Zach Bolduc (seven goals) and Jake Neighbours (six) both hitting the net regularly in 16 games since the Blues big 12-game winning streak started in mid-March.
The vibes are just fantastic up and down the lineup and that’s a wonderful note to begin the second season on.
Broadcast Details
Game 1: Saturday, April 19, 6 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. CT (Sportsnet, CBC, Omni)
Game 2: Monday, April 21, 7:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. CT (CBC)
Game 3: Thursday, April 24, 9:30 p.m. ET / 8:30 p.m. CT (Sportsnet, CBC)
Game 4: Sunday, April 27, 1 p.m. ET / noon CT (Sportsnet, CBC)
* Game 5: Wednesday, April 30, Time TBD
* Game 6: Friday, May 2, Time TBD
* Game 7: Sunday, May 4, Time TBD
* If necessary
