Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 Preview: Capitals vs. Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens return to the playoffs ahead of schedule, with a young and exciting roster that exceeded expectations. In Round 1 they’ll meet the top seed in the East, Washington, who also outshot expectations.
Meaningful hockey in March.
By most accounts, that was the expectation laid out before the 2024-25 Montreal Canadiens by much of the hockey world last fall. After three straight years of finishing last in the Atlantic Division while undergoing a massive roster overhaul, this felt like the year we could see the team take its first steps towards contending.
Turns out, the young club took it several steps further than that, with meaningful strides in March turning into an early-April sprint… and now, a spring playoff run.
The Washington Capitals, meanwhile, entered the season looking like they could be barrelling towards a rebuild of their own. After just barely squeaking into the second wild card spot last spring in game No. 82 (sound familiar?), the Capitals barely showed up for their first-round series against the New York Rangers. The offence sputtered, with Alex Ovechkin held pointless for the first time in his career, and New York’s sweep was swift.
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As the club celebrated its 50th anniversary this year, the focus going into the season was on history — both the team’s own history, as well as their captain’s hunt for historic goal No. 895 to break Wayne Gretzky’s record. Instead, the team made it clear early and often that this group, this season, and this playoff run to come is worthy of the spotlight, too, as two of the best stories of the season now collide in Round 1.
There’s not a ton of history between these clubs — they’ve met just once before in the playoffs, in the first round of the 2010 post-season when the eighth-seed Canadiens upset the first-place Capitals in seven games… Hmm. Interesting.
So, what can we expect from a series few expected? Here’s what you need to know.
Head-to-head record
Capitals: 2-0-1
Canadiens: 1-2-0
The breakdown
Ask the Montreal Canadiens themselves — as many did following their thrilling playoff-clinching win against the Hurricanes Wednesday night — and the players will say their expectations of the team extended far beyond March. For them, post-season hockey was always the goal this year. But for many onlookers, the ceiling of this club felt like a mystery for much of this season. And that felt justified.
The Canadiens’ entire season has looked like a work in progress, starts and stops and sprints and slow-downs. After stumbling out of the gates, the team entered December in familiar territory, sitting last in the Atlantic with just eight wins. But that’s when things started to change.
The Canadiens ushered in the new year as a .500 team, and by the time the league’s trade deadline rolled around two months later management had seen enough from the young squad to stay the course, standing pat instead of selling. Few teams were as hot as the Habs once the league resumed play following the 4 Nations Face-Off, and while an ill-timed late-season cool-off — combined with a remarkable run by the Columbus Blue Jackets hot on their heels — threatened to turn Montreal’s second-half triumph into crushing disappointment, game No. 82 saw the Canadiens rise to the occasion and grab hold of the final playoff berth.
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Phew. What a run. And even for those who don’t bleed bleu, blanc, et rouge, it was a fun run to watch, filled with breakout seasons and personal bests and standout rookies up and down the lineup.
There’s a lot that separates the Canadiens from the team they’re about to take on. Twenty-seven days stood between the Capitals’ playoff-clinching victory back on March 20 and Montreal’s own Wednesday night. Twenty points separate them in the standings. The Capitals have scored at a clip more than half a goal per game better than Montreal, and Washington’s got a few players wearing Stanley Cup rings that can speak for the value of experience.
But for all their differences, and as much as the makeup of the Capitals looks a lot different than the young, inexperienced squad they now face in Round 1, there are similarities here, too. Ovechkin’s Gr8 Chase was the headliner in Washington, but the way everyone has played around him has been one of the league’s best displays of chemistry and consistency. Last year’s lacklustre offence is alive and well a season later with seven players scoring 20 or more goals, three hitting 30, and at 39 years old and with just 65 games on the season Ovechkin has 44 of his own.
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The Capitals have the edge in just about every category — goal-scoring, consistency, special teams, experience. Their core has been here before. Washington slowed down the stretch after rallying around Ovechkin’s historic hunt. Injury concerns have surfaced, too, with questions around the statuses of prominent players like Aliaksei Protas and netminder Logan Thompson.
Experience sides with Washington, but momentum is with Montreal. The Canadiens — icing the youngest roster among all playoff teams — play with an energy and a pace few clubs can match, and if they can catch fire like they did down the stretch, could we see an upset? There’s a clear-cut favourite, but we all know parity is alive and well in this league.
Advanced stats
(5-on-5 totals from Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Capitals X-Factor: Alex Ovechkin
Is it too obvious to point to the game’s greatest goal-scorer as his team’s biggest X-Factor in this series? Maybe so, but as the hockey world has watched Ovechkin’s remarkable scoring surge to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, we also got to see how the team plays around him. The captain is the heart and soul of this roster, and while he isn’t the physical force or speedy threat he used to be, his ability to put the puck in the back of the net remains unmatched — especially on the power play, and especially when he’s in his office or parks himself in front of the net. Just as valuable is his ability to set the tone for his team. Head coach Spencer Carbery smartly opted to rest the captain a few games to close out the season, but Ovi was back for game No. 82 Thursday against the Penguins, and he scored another signature marker to close out the campaign.
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We saw last year what happens when Ovechkin is not at his best, and with so much going right for the captain and his squad this season, it’s clear his veteran poise and leadership is the driving force of this roster.
Canadiens X-Factor: Sam Montembeault
Nick Suzuki is the leader on the stat sheet and in the locker room. Cole Caufield’s a scoring threat every time he hits the ice. Lane Hutson just put up historically good numbers with a very veteran-like rookie campaign, and even though Ivan Demidov has played all of two NHL contests it’s safe to say he’s already a fan favourite on this young squad.
But if the Canadiens are to topple the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed — an offence that’s averaged the second-most goals league-wide and boasts the literal best goal-scorer on the planet — they’re going to need great goaltending. Sam Montembeault has been among the league’s busiest netminders this season, starting 60 games and averaging 28 shots against per game. His .902 save percentage doesn’t rank him among the league’s best this year, but his stretch run — 13-3-4, an improved .912 save percentage — shows he can shine when the stakes are high.
Hey, we all know what can happen when a high-scoring club runs into a hot goalie, after all — and Capitals fans know it better than most. Back in 2010, the only other time these clubs have faced off in the playoffs, Ovechkin and the Capitals got goalied by Canadiens netminder Jaroslav Halak. Fifteen years later, the players are different, but the script is there — a reminder that anything can happen in the post-season.
BROADCAST DETAILS
Game 1: Monday, April 21, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT (Sportsnet)
Game 2: Wednesday, April 23, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT (Sportsnet, CBC)
Game 3: Friday, April 25, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT (Sportsnet, CBC)
Game 4: Sunday, April 27, 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT (Sportsnet, CBC)
* Game 5: Wednesday, April 30, Time TBD
* Game 6: Friday, May 2, Time TBD
* Game 7: Sunday, May 4, Time TBD
*If necessary
