NHL Playoffs contenders and pretenders for 2025 Stanley Cup

Which teams are showing up, and who needs to show us more?

The first round of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs is still underway with us having just over a week of games in the books. The first chance for series to be wrapped up is on Tuesday, with Toronto and Carolina having the opportunity to shut the door and move on.

Playoff hockey and the regular season are entirely different beasts. Hockey remains the one sport where postseason success rarely, if ever, aligns with what a team did ahead of the playoffs. That means we have the perfect opportunity to dive in now and see which teams feel like they could go all the way, and who are looking like pretenders.

CONTENDER: Toronto Maple Leafs

I’ll own that I had major doubts about the Leafs entering the playoffs because, well... [looks at the last six decades]. However, after a handful of games against the Senators I’m buying into this team.

The biggest issue with the Leafs last year was that when the team hit the playoffs their top players disappeared. Mitch Marner and John Tavares more or less vanished, while Williams Nylander battled injury. This left a massive void where the only players like Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi were really performing.

Already we’re seeing that this is different. Marner, Nylander, and Auston Matthews are anchoring the team and proving the stars are literally aligning. I know a lot of people are spooked after Toronto’s overtime loss to Ottawa on Saturday — but I don’t see history repeating. When you also consider that the Atlantic path to the Stanley Cup Finals aligns well for the Leafs it means we could see big things from Toronto.

PRETENDER: Winnipeg Jets

I don’t really know what to say here. For a long time the Jets were my favorite to win the cup, but the team we’re seeing right now is nothing like their regular season counterpart. A lot this comes down to Connor Hellebuyck, who has turned into a pumpkin these playoffs.

It’s tough to remember the last time a Vezina-favorite goaltender was pulled twice in the opening series for allowing soft goals, but here we are. Simply: WInnipeg is built around efficiency and defense. If Hellebuyck is allowing five goals against a team like the Blues, then he sure isn’t going to be able to keep the Jets’ head above water if they move on to face the likes of Colorado, Dallas, or Edmonton.

While it’s still very possible the Jets make it past the Blues and move on, it’s difficult to envision them going much further in the playoffs unless something changes in a big way. Winnipeg just isn’t consistent the same way they were during the regular season, and those issues will only increase with every loss, or close game they have.

CONTENDER: Carolina Hurricanes

This is starting to feel like the year the Canes are actually for real in the playoffs. While an opening round against the Devils might not seem like the best litmus test, what it has shown us is that Carolina’s brutal forecheck and deep lines can hand with a faster team designed around finesse play.

The stars of this team, Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis are all showing up in a big way — but when you factor in the breakout play of the team’s youth in Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven it bears very well for a deep playoff run. What we’re seeing is the next evolution of the Rod Brind’Amour system, which marries hard-line two-way play with allowing enough wiggle room for stars to show their personality.

All of this is before we begin to mention that the Hurricanes have a major x-factor waiting in the wings: Alexander Nikishin. The KHL phenom arrived in Raleigh shortly before the playoffs, and has been practicing with the team in preparation for his debut. Nikishin is everything this team has been missing as a quarterbacking defenseman with the capability to giving a big pop on the powerplay with his Cale Makar-esque play, and if he’s able to come in and give Carolina another dimension they’ll be tough to beat.

PRETENDER: Tampa Bay Lightning

There’s no doubt that Tampa drew a short straw by getting Florida in the opening round, but I’m just not seeing it from this team in 2025. Andrei Vasilevskiy is playing really poorly in the net, which has been heightened by a struggling Lightning defense. Meanwhile on the offensive side the team just isn’t getting much out of anyone but Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point. Somebody else has to step up and get some goals.

Tampa is more or less who we thought they were. A very good team, but lacking the X-factor to be a Stanley Cup winning team. The addition of Guentzel in free agency was fantastic, but it hasn’t necessarily made the Lightning a dramatically better team.

Florida getting healthy for the playoffs has more or less exposed this team’s weaknesses.

What about Dallas and Colorado?

Undoubtably the most brutal opening round series has been between the Stars and Avalanche, both teams who had legitimate Stanley Cup potential entering the playoffs. That series has shown we know everything, and nothing about either team.

The night-to-night consistency hasn’t been there from the Stars. Mikko Rantanen hasn’t shown up the way Dallas needs him to, but it’s a testament to how good they are as a team that they’re still competing without their ace playing his best hockey.

Meanwhile the Avs have all the trappings of an elite team, but we’ve yet to really see them take advantage of the fact the Stars are struggling offensively. In order to put this team in contender status it would have been nice to see a little more teeth, and try to step on Dallas’ neck early. Instead this series is dragging on.

Ultimately it feels like both the Stars and Avs will be victims to each other. Cannibalizing each other in a brutal seven game series to become pickings for whoever moves on. It’s a shame, but a bad break for two teams who are neither contenders, nor pretenders — but both incredibly good.