Guerrero Jr. could rewrite Blue Jays’ record book with new deal

By extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Toronto Blue Jays made an enormous commitment to their lineup centrepiece — and did a great deal to clarify a future that was exceedingly opaque as recently as Sunday.

Keeping Vladdy over the long haul won’t just impact the Blue Jays in the years to come, either; it will almost certainly rewrite that franchise’s history books.

Barring an almost unprecedented skill regression or hellacious run of injuries, Guerrero is likely to hold every notable Blue Jays position-player record thanks to this contract.

The 26-year-old is already relatively high in several basic categories, and if we use his average pace from 2021 through 2024 (which seems fair as it includes his down 2023 but doesn’t loop in his age-20 and age-21 seasons before he was an impact MLB hitter), it seems he’ll be knocking down records for years to come.

These projections may wind up being on the aggressive side as they are rooted in a time when Guerrero’s durability has been picture-perfect. Even a slight regression there could push these back a touch, but we haven’t seen any evidence of that yet.

Guerrero is also young enough that he may improve in the years to come or at least stabilize his performance to the extent that seasons like 2023 aren’t at all reflective of what you’d expect him to produce. 

Whatever the case may be, he’s on pace to own the Blue Jays’ record books before he even hits his decline phase and will have years and years to pad his numbers. 

This doesn’t carry on-field value for Toronto, but they are setting themselves up to have a franchise figure unique in their history — particularly because Guerrero seems likely to be a lifetime Blue Jay.

There are no guarantees on that count, but Vladdy is signed through his age-40 season with a full no-trade clause. The Blue Jays are looking to build around him during his prime, and later in the contract, he’s unlikely to have much appeal to other teams, assuming he can be convinced to go to them in the first place.

Chances are Guerrero is a one-uniform star, which would make him unique in franchise history. Below is every Toronto position player with more fWAR as a position player than Vladdy, and what percentage of their career games they played with the club.

The story is relatively similar on the pitching side.

Three of the team’s five Cy Young Awards were collected by guys who were only on the team for two seasons (Roger Clemens and Robbie Ray). Many of the best pitchers the Blue Jays ever developed headed elsewhere in their early-to-mid thirties, like Roy Halladay, Jimmy Key, Jim Clancy, Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen. Toronto let go of future Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter when he was 27.

The only truly great Blue Jays pitcher who came close to single-franchise icon status was Dave Stieb, who spent 99.1 per cent of his remarkable career in Toronto. It’s tough to imagine Stieb as a Chicago White Sox starter, but he gave the team four unremarkable outings in 1993.

Guerrero now has a chance to claim the mantle of Mr. Blue Jay in a way no one else has, despite the remarkable talent that has come through town since 1977. Becoming synonymous with the franchise could take various forms, though.

He could achieve individual excellence without much playoff success to show for mirroring the career paths of players like Todd Helton or Edgar Martinez. If he disappoints individually, he might be the kind of player who is fondly remembered in his market but seldom thought of elsewhere, like Paul Konerko or Garrett Anderson. 

Given his talent level and the Blue Jays’ potential as a big-market spender, it’s even possible he will be seen as Toronto’s Derek Jeter or George Brett if he remains the face of the franchise during a period of remarkable success. That’s not the likeliest outcome, but almost anything is on the table for a 26-year-old who’s already made four all-star teams over a 15-year span.

However, Vladdy looks like he’ll be a singular figure in the Toronto Blue Jays’ story. That doesn’t make this a good deal or a bad one, but when the Blue Jays handed him a $500 million contract, that’s part of what they were buying.

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