GOP lawmakers say economic numbers are a major red flag for Trump

Republican lawmakers say economic data released Wednesday is flashing a warning about the growing impact of President Trump’s trade war, which they fear could lead to a sharp political backlash.

They say it is beginning to confirm what they feared for weeks, that Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs on dozens of foreign trading partners and his zigzagging style of announcing new fees only to then later backtrack is creating significant uncertainty within the economy.

“I don’t think there is any doubt that the tariffs and trade war has injected a lot of uncertainty and instability into the economy. I think investment, what I’m hearing from businesses, is drying up. That’s not good,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who has introduced legislation to curtail Trump’s power to impose new tariffs by requiring that Congress approve them within 60 days, said Wednesday’s gross domestic product report reflects growing uncertainty in the economy.

“When things change in Washington, it has an impact of everybody’s buying and selling,” he said.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who faces a competitive reelection next year in a swing state that Trump narrowly won, says Republican candidates will face “headwinds” the longer the trade war drags on.

Tillis warned that if the economy continues to weaken, it could affect work on Trump’s legislative agenda by diminishing how much revenue various proposals are likely to generate.

He also said it could create challenges for passing Trump’s legislative agenda, which includes Trump tax cuts from his first term that expire at the end of the year.

Tillis warned that the economy will be a major issue in next year’s election, just like it was in 2024 when Republicans capitalized on voters’ anger over inflation under former President Biden.

“At the end of the day, the voters are largely driven by the question, ‘Are you better off than you were fill-in-the-blank years ago?’ And clearly, if we have this kind of froth next year, then it’s a real challenge for Republicans,” he said.

Data released Wednesday showed the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025 by 0.3 percent on an annual basis, though a huge increase in imports provoked by the prospect of Trump’s tariffs skewed the numbers. Data also showed consumer spending rising at a lower pace, another potential red flag.

A Fox News poll published last week found only 38 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 56 percent disapprove.

Those numbers were similar to the data in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Wednesday that found 42 percent of Americans surveyed approved of Trump’s job performance.

The survey found 36 percent of respondents approved of his economic leadership.

A Republican senator who requested anonymity to speak candidly said Trump needs to turn those numbers around, or Republicans will pay the political price next year.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty. What’s the supply chain going to be? We have pretty large amounts of trade with several different countries,” the lawmaker said, summarizing the concerns of constituents.

The senator said Trump himself will have to make a decision about whether he wants to change his trade strategy, warning “it definitely will” impact Republican candidates.

The source said colleagues are on the “defensive” as they are getting peppered with questions about Trump’s trade policies.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said he was “very concerned” about Wednesday’s GDP reading.

“The marketplace is millions of people interacting, and they do send signals,” he said, asserting that the stock markets lost trillions of dollars in value after Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

“Growth is a little more complicated, but it’s not a good sign that we’re not growing,” he said.

While many GOP lawmakers broadly agree Trump is right to address trade imbalances with trading partners in Europe, Asia and other parts of the world, they’re second-guessing his shock-and-awe approach.

Specifically, some lawmakers view Trump’s decision to slap China, the world’s second-largest economy, with a 145 percent tariff, or Vietnam, a major supplier of affordable clothing and sneakers, with a 46 percent tariff, as a risky strategy.

Trump later paused the tariff against Vietnam for 90 days.

A second Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss Trump’s economic strategies expressed skepticism of the economy's current trajectory.

“Any number provides some level of information and suggests we ought to be making certain that our economy is headed in the right direction,” the lawmaker said of shrinking growth in the first quarter.

Asked if the economy is headed in the right direction, the source said, “It doesn’t feel like it.”

Some Republicans are pushing back on White House advisors such as Peter Navarro who view tariffs as a long-term strategy for returning manufacturing jobs to the United States.

“I think President Trump has a unique opportunity to win a historic victory for workers and jobs in America, and he would not have that leverage had he not initially announced those tariffs,” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said.

“But there are some voices in the administration that see tariffs not as a means to an end but as an end in and of themselves and want high tariffs to be a permanent feature of our economic system. I think that would be a disastrous outcome, and the numbers that came out today underscore that risk,” he said.

Other Republican senators are questioning Trump’s threat of high tariffs against key allies, such as Japan and Taiwan, which are critical to U.S. national security strategy in the East Asia, or Canada and the European Union, which are important to containing Russian expansion.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she voted Wednesday for a resolution to undo Trump’s self-described reciprocal tariffs to send a “message” to the White House.

“We really need to be far more discriminatory in imposing these tariffs and not treat allies like Canada the way we treat adversaries like China,” she said.