Democrats neck and neck in New Jersey governor's primary: Poll

Several of the Democrats running for governor of New Jersey are neck and neck with one another less than two months away from the June primary, according to a poll released Friday. 

The results from Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling shows Rep. Mikie Sherrill out in front with 17 percent support, followed by Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop with 12 percent, whose deficit is within the poll's margin of error. New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller received 10 percent, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka received 9 percent apiece.

Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney had 7 percent. About a third said they were unsure who they support, and 4 percent said their pick was none of those candidates. 

The race is to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy (D), who is term-limited after being elected to the governor's mansion twice.

The poll is the first independent survey of the race in months and one of the only ones that hasn’t been affiliated with a candidate’s campaign. 

But the internal polls have showed similar results so far, with the four-term House member Sherrill holding a slight lead over the next-closest candidate. Which of the other candidates has placed second has varied from poll to poll but most commonly has been Fulop, Baraka or Spiller. 

Sherrill is the only Democratic candidate with a net positive favorability rating, with 20 percent viewing her favorably and 14 percent viewing her unfavorably. But 22 percent said they have no opinion of her, and 44 percent said they don’t know who she is. 

Most of the other candidates either roughly break even or are just slightly underwater in net favorability, except for Sweeney, who has a net favorability rating of negative 8 points. But a clear majority say regarding all of the candidates that they haven’t heard of them or have no opinion.

“All of the candidates have made some progress since the fall in terms of voters knowing who they are, but they haven’t made noticeable gains in favorability,” Eagleton Center Director Ashley Koning said in a release. “Though not necessarily unusual at this stage in the game, candidates on both sides of the aisle still lack name recognition from a notable number of voters, and no candidate on either side of the aisle is viewed favorably by more than one in five voters.” 

On the Republican side, former state Assembly member Jack Ciattarelli, who was the 2021 GOP nominee for governor, appears to be the front-runner for the nomination again with 42 percent support from registered voters. Former radio host Bill Spadea is in second with 12 percent, while 4 percent backed state Sen. Jon Bramnick. 

But a third said they’re unsure, and 4 percent said they would support none of the candidates. 

One question mark in the race has been whether President Trump will endorse a candidate for the nomination and potentially give them a boost.

Ciattarelli and Spadea have battled with each other over who has been more supportive of Trump, while Bramnick has been more critical of the president. Former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac has also argued that he has been the true backer of Trump’s agenda, but he received no support in the poll.

Former Gov. Chris Christie, who won the 2009 and 2013 elections, is the only Republican to have led the Garden State since 2002.

The poll was conducted from April 1-10 among 1,058 adults, including 966 registered voters. The margin of error for the entire sample is 4.1 points, while the margin for registered voters is 4.3 points.