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Comments on March Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.Earlier: March Employment Report: 228 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in March to 83.3% from 83.5% in February.The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.4% from 80.5% the previous month.Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. Average Hourly Wages The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in March. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 million, changed little in March. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs"The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.78 million from 4.94 million in February. This is above the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.9% from 8.0% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Unemployed over 26 Weeks This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.46 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.44 million the previous month.This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Job StreakThrough March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks Year EndedStreak, Months 12020113 2Current, N/A511 3199048 4200746 5197945 6 tie194333 6 tie198633 6 tie200033 9196729 10199525 1Currrent Streak Summary: The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.This was a solid employment report.
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in March to 83.3% from 83.5% in February.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.9% from 8.0% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.46 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.44 million the previous month.
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in March to 83.3% from 83.5% in February.
The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.4% from 80.5% the previous month.
Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in March.
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in March.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.8 million, changed little in March. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs"The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.78 million from 4.94 million in February. This is above the pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.9% from 8.0% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.46 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.44 million the previous month.
This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.
This is above pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
Through March 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 51 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).
| Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2020 | 113 |
| 2 | Current, N/A | 511 |
| 3 | 1990 | 48 |
| 4 | 2007 | 46 |
| 5 | 1979 | 45 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Summary:
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.
This was a solid employment report.
