Charts show how tariffs could chill ad spending — and what might suffer the deepest cuts

• Advertisers expect to trim budgets in response to Trump's tariffs.
• The retail and e-commerce sectors may face the biggest spending cuts.
• Social media could be hit hard, though performance-driven channels might be somewhat protected.

Trump's tariffs are expected to hit businesses across many sectors — as well as the media companies that depend on their ad spending.

But who is most at risk?

In February, when Trump started following through on tariff threats — starting with China, Canada, and Mexico — 94% of 100 advertisers surveyed by the Interactive Advertising Bureau said they were concerned about the potential impact of tariffs on their ad spending.

At the time, the top move was cutting spending, with 45% saying they would trim budgets. Most advertisers — 60% — expected to cut budgets 6% to 10% ad budget due to tariff-related pressures, the IAB found.

But the effects of tariffs won't be felt evenly. The survey results suggest that retail and e-commerce are the most at risk. In the survey, 40% of advertisers said they expected budget cuts in those categories. At the other end of the spectrum, only 5% of advertisers expected cuts in the packaged goods category.

Here's a full breakdown of the categories from the IAB survey:

Different advertising channels will also feel the pain to different degrees. The advertisers surveyed by IAB expected social media and traditional media (like TV and print) to be hit the hardest.

Within these categories, some industry analysts previously told BI they expected Amazon and Meta to suffer because they get a lot of revenue from Chinese advertisers, who could cut spending.

EMARKETER and other forecasters predict that performance-driven channels — like retail media and search — will be somewhat safe as they offer precision and flexibility for advertisers.

Amazon could fare better than Meta and Google because of its role as a place for vendors to sell and advertise goods. That said, its exposure to China, especially through third-party sellers who use the platform, remains a big risk.

EMARKETER analysts said that, in general, advertisers with exposure to China or Asia-Pacific markets are likely to put off campaign launches or shift spending.

Here's a full breakdown of different channels from the IAB survey:

Besides trimming budgets, in the IAB survey, advertisers said they also planned — to a lesser extent — to shift spending to performance-based channels and platforms with better measurement. They also said they would adjust their campaign messages and seek more flexibility from ad sellers.

The impact of the tariffs could last even if there's a de-escalation, EMARKETER analysts said. The economic uncertainty could leave a lasting mark on the economy and consumer spending.

EMARKETER sees increased chances of a recession because of weakened consumer confidence, stalled investment, and potential retaliation by other countries.

Disclosure: EMARKETER and Business Insider share a parent company.