Canada-US flight bookings plunge

Bookings fall over 70% amid tariff tension.

Air travel between Canada and the United States has experienced a severe downturn, with new figures revealing that bookings have plummeted by over 70% compared to last year. This significant drop has been linked to escalating trade tensions driven by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and a growing sense of unease among Canadian travellers.

Aviation analytics firm OAG reports that airlines have slashed capacity on routes between the two countries, extending reductions through October 2025. The most notable cuts have occurred during July and August, traditionally the busiest months for travel.

OAG’s data, which tracks bookings from March 2024 through March 2025, highlights an alarming drop in passenger interest. In the six-month window from April to September, the number of booked tickets fell by 71% to 76% compared to the same period the year before.

The available seating capacity has been scaled back accordingly, with over 320,000 seats removed from Canada-US flights. However, even this reduction seems insufficient to meet the current drop in demand, particularly during the summer peak, when cuts of 3.5% were recorded.

The sharp decline in bookings suggests that many Canadians are taking a cautious approach to travel, possibly influenced by the unpredictability of US trade policy. Prime Minister Mark Carney described Trump’s most recent tariffs as a “direct attack” on Canadian labour, a statement that may reflect and reinforce public sentiment.

Air Canada, the airline with the most extensive cross-border operations, could face serious operational adjustments if the situation does not improve. With such a dramatic fall in demand, long-term route suspensions or a reconfiguration of services may be necessary to prevent financial losses.

Compounding the issue is a rise in reported incidents involving Canadian visitors being detained by US immigration enforcement. High-profile cases of travellers being held by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) have sparked widespread concern, prompting some to reconsider the safety and comfort of crossing into the US.

While some downturn in travel had been anticipated due to the tariff situation, the extent of the current decline has surprised many in the industry. The scale of this falloff could drive substantial strategic shifts for airlines, border agencies, and policymakers alike.