Seven thoughts on the state of the Toronto Maple Leafs

There’s so much going on with the Toronto Maple Leafs roster that it felt silly to dig in on any one particular thing. And so we go to The Notebook, where I’ve got seven thoughts (and some video) for you.

This could be what a successful playoff version of Mitch Marner looks like

It isn’t the dominating, game-controlling version we’ve seen from him during some mid-season games, but there’s this new bud of a player who hangs in there and tries to keep making plays deep into big hockey games, even if things aren’t going great.

After a few periods against Sweden in the 4 Nations, you started to see tweets like big game and Marner nowhere to be found, same as playoffs. But then in overtime he took a puck from the neutral zone, drove and fired home the winner. Against the Americans in the final, old feelings were surfacing again — big heavy hockey, big pressure, quiet game from Mitch. Then he made two late plays that helped the Canadian side break through.

Against the Florida Panthers with the Atlantic Division on the line, the fears were there again. Two quiet periods in the biggest game of the year, this looks like playoffs. Then he took an Auston Matthews feed and wired it home, before setting up the eventual game-winner with a stretch pass to Matthew Knies.

I have said forever that there’s going to be a playoff where it comes together for him, and you’re starting to see the shape of what that success might look like.

This all has to have done wonders for his confidence in the big moments, and I think it’s fair to say that if he can deliver these sorts of performances in the playoffs — where he’s maybe quieter, but sticks with it and shows well in the big moments — Leafs fans would be thrilled with that.

Matthews and Knies have become a down-low nightmare

Don’t look now, but Auston Matthews seems … healthy? After playing 19:52 per game in January, he got back up to 20:53 in February and March, and he’s just had way more moments where he’s taking over games.

Matthews and Matthew Knies are huge dudes and when they handle the puck down low, you can see D-men struggling to hang. Against Florida in the third, in a 1-1 game, the Leafs captain had a shift where he shrugged defenders off like he was the big brother.

They don’t have to score every shift, or even every period, but if Matthews and Knies can control pucks like that low in the offensive zone they’ll wear opponents down.

Bobby McMann changes the Leafs’ top six

Not to be overly positive about the Leafs here, god forbid, but they quietly lost McMann before playoffs last year, and his speed, forechecking ability, and shot have changed the second line. Tavares has more room, William Nylander has someone to make plays with and their speed is setting opposing teams on their heels.

As they chase more offence in playoffs, it’s hard to believe this line can’t go toe-to-toe with the second line of any team. At least, if they’re playing like they have been of late.

Max Domi’s unclear role

When I’m building what I think are the best Leafs lines, I typically want each line to have a purpose. Do they score, are they defensive, are they an energy line? I have trouble with Max Domi, because he’s so talented — as we saw against the Anaheim Ducks (what a goal) — and because he’s so feisty — as we saw against the Vegas Golden Knights — and he does things that can really help the team. He can do some things others can’t.

The problem is — and the goal against Anaheim probably makes this worse — that he seems to want to play a certain way, and I’m not sure how that chosen style fits their bottom-six puzzle.

He isn’t an elite offensive talent to the point where he’s in your top six (0.61 points-per-game career, 0.45 this year). And while you want offence from your bottom six, Domi takes big risks with the puck which nullify so much of the good. He doesn’t defend well (it was his player on a rush against that got Florida’s backdoor attempt late in the third). And so I get stuck. He doesn’t crash and bang, or defend, and so you want him to create, but not the way he’s trying to create right now. And frankly, not when it’s going to be Scott Laughton and Calle Jarnkrok at the end of the Hail Mary passes.

This 29-second clip is from the last two games alone, and I don’t show it to be hard on him, I show it because this is the reality of what the coach would be seeing and making decisions on.

Clear Sight Analytics has done some research showing that the last six Stanley Cup winners were all top six in limiting high danger chances against off the rush (at 5-on-5, per 60). You can’t have your third-line centre chucking hope-sauce through the middle of the ice. It just isn’t winning hockey.

Stolarz confidence

It’s huge that Stolarz beat Florida in one of these regular season games. It seems like he’s on his way to cementing himself as the Game 1 starter for the Leafs, and so having that under his belt should help him past the thought of “Oh no, I haven’t beaten my old team in three tries,” which was looming for him Wednesday with a loss.

A huge victory for him to help find his way back to the best version of himself.

Riding out rough patches

Something I liked from Toronto-Florida was that during the second period, when the Panthers dialled up the heat at the Leafs were on their heels, you could see a bend-but-don’t-break mentality. In the playoffs you play good teams only, and often great teams, and those teams have a say in the outcome too. They’re going to have stretches where they find their rhythm, or “get to their game” as coaches say, and that’s fine. You just can’t crumble like an old cookie when they do.

Go back and watch the Cup runs of recent champions, and there’s stretches where they’re on their heels for whole periods, games even. But that doesn’t mean you can’t win those games — especially if you get some good goaltending, don’t panic, and keep things tight at the net front, particularly with limiting second-chance opportunities.

Morgan Rielly has had a couple encouraging rushes lately

The bar has lowered, but he’s clearing it, at least offensively.

Rielly had his best stretch of play this season leading up to the 4 Nations break, when Craig Berube encouraged him to get up the ice and into the play more. I thought towards the end of the California road trip, and against Florida, he was an option on rushes, below the offensive goal line at times, and more involved. Defending aside, if he can rediscover the offensive part of his game, Brandon Carlo should be able to anchor their pair at the back end.

With seven games to go, the Leafs find themselves first in the Atlantic. A big road trip to Florida next week, a couple more to close out their 82, and then it’s off to the playoffs. They look as ready as they have this season.

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