2025 EFL Playoffs betting: Your guide to the battle for promotion

Ask fans of any team outside of the elite few in the Premier League what they believe the best way to win promotion is, and they’ll almost certainly say via the playoffs. 

They are, however, to use a well-worn cliché, a lottery and while they offer the most glorious path to the promised land, they’re also therefore the most painful way to fall short and for a season to unceremoniously end. For three of the four qualifying teams in each division, this will be the reality, but one team will have a truly unforgettable experience winning at Wembley and booking their place in the division above for the following season.

Across the EFL’s three divisions – the Championship, League One and League Two – the fate of twelve teams will be decided in the next couple of weeks, with the drama kicking off with this week’s semi-final first legs.

EFL Playoffs quick tips

• Coventry City to make it to Wembley – 21/20 with bet365
• Stockport County to win promotion from League One – 9/4 with BetVictor
• AFC Wimbledon and Chesterfield to meet in the League Two final – 13/5 with Sky Bet

What are the EFL playoffs?

Having first been introduced in 1987, the playoffs have added another layer of excitement to the end of the English Football League season. They have also reduced the number of dead rubbers at the end of the gruelling 46-game campaign as teams within touching distance of sixth place (or seventh in League Two) still have something to play for entering the final weeks.

The best two teams (or three, in League Two) over the course of the season are still rewarded with automatic promotion to the league above but those finishing in the four spots directly below are given another chance to claim the final spot in do-or-die battles against each other. The highest-placed side in each division will meet the lowest, while the second highest will play the second lowest, in two-legged semi-final ties. The higher-placed side also has the advantage of hosting the crucial second leg – which could, of course, be settled by extra time or penalties. The winners of both ties head to the final at Wembley Stadium. 

Since their inception, only a handful of the current 92 clubs in England’s top four tiers have yet to taste the playoffs – naturally, those who’ve never been relegated from the Premier League (Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Tottenham) are among those. Crawley Town made their debut in League Two last season, and blew away MK Dons over two legs before defeating Crewe 2-0 under the famous arch.

Momentum, points totals meaning nothing, etc

While the aforementioned seeding and hosting of the second legs are significant advantages, nothing else counts when it comes to playoff time and those who finished higher in the table over 46 games – by as many as 15 to 20 points in some cases throughout the years – will have to prove their superiority again in these games. If they don’t, all those extra wins and draws will have been for nothing. 

3rd versus 6th ties (or 4th versus 7th in League Two) have often thrown up scenarios of the 3rd place team, having fallen away from automatic promotion contention, going up against a side who flew up the table in the last few months. This is indeed the case in League Two this year where Walsall led the division for months until the start of April. A dismal run saw them plummet out of the top three altogether and now they’ll face Chesterfield, who only sneaked into the final playoff spot on the last day of the season.

Across one or two games, with the pressure dialled up to 11, anything can happen. And anything and everything has happened throughout the years! Here’s who we’re backing to hold their nerve this EFL post-season.

Three Wembley trips in three years for Coventry

Coventry have been knocking on the Premier League door for the last three seasons, having reached the Championship playoff final two years ago – losing in heartbreaking fashion on penalties.

Last year, while their top six tilt may have fizzled out, the Sky Blues did return to the national stadium for an FA Cup semi-final where, after a heroic display against Manchester United, they once again fell short on spot kicks. 

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This year, having made the unpopular move to part company with long-term manager Mark Robins, installing Frank Lampard, it just feels like it might be their year. Since taking over in late November, Lampard has led a surge up the table with a run of 10 wins in 12 at the beginning of 2025. In defeating Middlesbrough on the final day of the season, they’ve already emerged from what was being billed as a “playoff quarter-final” as the Teessiders also went into that game with a chance of making it in.

Sunderland now stand in their way. The Black Cats were in the conversation for automatic promotion for two thirds of the season, but having lost their last five games – and eight of their last 14 – few teams have ever entered the post-season in such dire form. While their top-six berth was never under threat, momentum certainly isn’t on their side. Coventry, for me, are the favourites to make the final. With bet365, they are 21/20 to get past Sunderland, and are 10/3 to win promotion.

Back Coventry to make it to Wembley at 21/20 with bet365

Four promotions in seven seasons for Stockport

It may not have caught the eye as much as a certain North Wales club but Stockport’s rise from non-league has arguably been just as worthy of a Disney+ docuseries. As recently as 2019, County were playing National League North football. Since winning the title that year, they have finished higher and higher up the pyramid every season, re-entering the EFL as National League champions in 2022, and then claiming the League Two title two years after that.

Now, in their first season in the third tier since 2009-10, they have finished third behind only moneybags club Birmingham City and the Hollywood-backed Wrexham. If they are to make it a remarkable four promotions in seven seasons, they’ll need to turn their recent playoff fortunes around. They were denied promotion out of League Two at the first attempt in a penalty shootout in the 2023 final and were also unsuccessful in their postseason bids in 2021 in the National League and 2018 in the National League North.

They enter these playoffs in fine form, however, having won six and drawn one of their last seven games – a run which elevated them from fifth to third, which, of course, makes a massive difference when it comes to seeding. Instead of what would’ve been a likely tie with Charlton, they will now entertain Leyton Orient – with the second leg being played at Edgeley Park, where County have won 16 of their 23 games this season.

Charlton may be the tougher assignment for them at Wembley if it were to play out that way, with nothing to separate the two sides in either encounter during the regular season. County, however, are fresh off the back of defeating Wycombe – their other potential opponent in the final – a few days ago. While The Chairboys did also dismantle them 5-0 earlier in the campaign, I’m willing to back Stockport to continue their rapidly upward trajectory into the Championship and they’re priced as slight favourites to win the League One playoffs.

Back Stockport for another promotion at 9/4 with BetVictor

AFC Wimbledon and Chesterfield to clash in League Two final

Chesterfield, under experienced manager Paul Cook, have continued a trend of sides coming up from the National League and hitting the ground running in League Two – gatecrashing the top seven on the final day. Extending their season beyond 46 games would’ve seemed like a distant dream as recently as March with The Spireites languishing in 16th. They then went on to collect 25 points from their last 12 games to pip Salford City and Grimsby Town, who failed to win in their last five.

They’ll now go head-to-head with Walsall for a place at Wembley who, as mentioned earlier, topped the table from early December to early April. The West Midlands side completely collapsed in the second half of the season. Their win at Crewe on the final day was their first for 14 games! And yet, but for a last-gasp Bradford City goal, they’d have still clung on to automatic promotion. The Yorkshire club’s dramatic late winner however means they’ll have to take the scenic route if they’re to climb up to League One. On current form, there’s only one winner here, we’re backing Chesterfield to become the latest seventh-placed side to cause an upset.

The other League Two tie is very close to call. Neither AFC Wimbledon or Notts County are in particularly sparkling form. The Dons won two, drew two and lost two of their last six. Crucially for them, one of the wins came on Saturday away at Grimsby to secure their playoff spot – at the expense of The Mariners. Notts County lost four of their last six and their last three at home. Interestingly, they picked up two points more on their travels than at Meadow Lane this season. The playoffs are a different ball game, however, and you need to make your home leg count. I’m predicting a first leg stalemate in Nottingham, which hands a slight advantage to AFC Wimbledon.

Back Chesterfield and AFC Wimbledon to face each other in the League Two showpiece at 13/5 with SkyBet

Previous patterns, most and least successful playoff teams

Over the past 10 seasons, fans and bettors may be interested to know that not a single team finishing 6th in the Championship has won promotion, and only two have defeated their third-placed opponents to reach the final. The last team to do so were Derby County back in 2019, delaying Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds’ long-awaited Premier League return until the season after. 

This run has coincided with a greater number of sides managing to bounce straight back to the top flight the season after relegation. Four playoff winners in the last ten years – Norwich, Hull, Fulham and Southampton – have earned their way back up at the first time of asking. All of whom were contenders for automatic promotion during their respective promotion seasons, and eventually finished either third or fourth with over 80 points. During this time, however, we have also seen fairytale stories be written such as Luton Town completing their journey all the way from non-league to Premier League and Brentford reaching the top flight for the first time since the 1940s.

It’s a similar story in League One where the third-placed team has been successful 50% of the time over the past 10 seasons, and sixth-placed teams have also struggled. However, two of the three underdogs who’ve made it to Wembley have gone on to win – the most recent being Millwall in 2017. 

It’s completely different in League Two, however, where only one fourth-placed team has been promoted in the last 10 years – that was Morecambe in 2021. In fact seventh is the sweet spot, with AFC Wimbledon, Blackpool, Northampton and last year’s Crawley Town all making the step up into League One since 2015. All the more reason, then, to keep an eye on Chesterfield in this year’s edition of the League Two playoffs.

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