Ferrari's F1 season hanging on rule change triggering a 'reset'

Ferrari just needed to unlock the potential from its 2025 Formula 1 car, then it would have the title-challenging car it dreamed of having over the winter...

That appeared to be the belief during the early stages of 2025, where Ferrari found itself bouncing anywhere between the front (briefly) and back of the lead group via some strategic and technical blunders that made the true picture harder to read.

Team boss Fred Vasseur has repeatedly spoken about the potential of the SF-25. But after qualifying eighth in Miami, behind both Williams cars and almost six tenths of a second off pole, Charles Leclerc said "we are maximising the potential of the car. It shows the potential of the car is just not there".

Miami was the worst manifestation of Ferrari's problems with a track layout at odds with its car. It was the opposite for Williams, with Miami likely being its best-case scenario.

So, Ferrari almost certainly doesn't have to worry about fighting Williams every weekend. But it does have to worry about whether it can regularly fight for wins this year given it has just one grand prix podium in six races.

For two reasons, the upcoming triple-header is likely to be fundamental in deciding whether Ferrari's 2025 season is salvageable and what that means for its 2026 project.

The upgrade plan

So, if Leclerc is convinced that Ferrari is maximising the potential of the current car, when can we expect upgrades to improve it?

The Race's Jon Noble asked him on Sunday in Miami.

Jon Noble: How does the team recover from here and get rolling? There's going to be no instant upgrade that's going to lift you back up?
Charles Leclerc: Maybe.
JN: Is there?
CL: I don't know, I don't know when, I don't think it's official, I don't think...I've already said too much so yeah, there will be things coming at one point and I hope that this will help us to do a step forward.

Vasseur was more forthcoming in his post-race debrief, suggesting there would be "some small upgrades" across Imola and Monaco.

But he also pointed to Barcelona as a potential reset of performance that might be Ferrari's best hope of a change in fortunes.

That Barcelona 'reset'

Barcelona was the scene of Ferrari's big misstep last year with a new floor that took its strong early-season development off-course and, with hindsight, cost it the constructors' championship.

But could it be the salvation point this season?

Round nine at Barcelona will feature the debut of the FIA's more stringent tests on flexi front wings, announced all the way back in March.

That will require most teams to modify their cars to cope with the new tests and has the potential to shake up the pecking order.

Want more insight on Ferrari's struggles? Its disappointing start to the year was the subject of our latest F1 Extra episode of The Race F1 Podcast, available exclusively to The Race Members' Club. Join us on Patreon via this link and receive 75% off your first month!

"Everybody will have a new front wing in Barcelona. By definition and by regulation, I think it will be perhaps a reset of the performance of everybody," Vasseur said.

Not every team will have a new front wing. Jonathan Wheatley indicated that Sauber won't have one but said he believes the change will have a big impact.

"It's a major performance differentiator, so I think you're right, it could be a change in the order," Wheatley said.

"You look at how tight it is at the front and in the midpack, a little change like that could have a huge difference."

Barcelona would be a logical place for any team's major upgrade, given that if you debuted it at Imola or in Monaco, you'd then face the prospect of running it in a very different configuration for Barcelona just a round or two later to cope with the new tests - including how the altered front wing changes the airflow over the car.

Ferrari isn't a million miles away from current F1 benchmark McLaren. At its absolute peak - Lewis Hamilton in the China sprint race, Charles Leclerc during phases of the Saudi Arabian GP - it's capable of beating it. So Ferrari is in the window for a small swing to take it into title contention.

But there's no guarantee that any potential swing at the Spanish GP will work in its favour. It remains a big unknown for all the frontrunning teams, with every rival hoping it's the secret to toppling McLaren.

Until then, for Ferrari, in the words of Vasseur, "it's a matter of exploiting the potential compared to the others" across the final two races before that reset.