Women’s basketball bracketology roundtable: Experts weigh-in on USC, the ACC and a potential 3-bid Ivy League

Charlie Creme, Megan Gauer and Mark Schindler help us get ready for March Madness in women’s college basketball with some bracketology breakdown.

It’s March, which means the NCAA Tournament is approaching quickly. And if you’re a fan of women’s college basketball, you’re probably thinking about your bracket — who you might pick to go to the Final Four or which mid-major might bust it.

Bracketology season is upon us as conference tournaments in each of the Power 4 leagues and the Big East get underway this week. And so much has changed from less than a week ago, when the selection committee unveiled its final top 16 projection. Some teams have lost two in a row since then — like North Carolina, Tennessee and LSU — while others, like USC and Duke, have notched big wins to help boost their resume. Several teams on the bubble, from Stanford and Virginia Tech in the ACC to teams in the Ivy League and the A-10, have work to do to ensure their bids.

To break down the tournament outlook about a week-and-a-half away from Selection Sunday, SB Nation has enlisted the help of the best women’s basketball bracketologists. To help figure out the 1-line, bid-stealers and bubble teams, Charlie Creme of ESPN, Megan Gauer of Her Hoop Stats, and Mark Schindler of the Athletic have offered their expertise for a bracketology roundtable.

Let’s dive in, y’all.

After beating UCLA for the second time and capturing the Big Ten title, is there a path for USC to get the No. 1 overall seed?

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Charlie Creme, ESPN: “There is and it’s pretty simple. If Texas loses and USC wins the Big Ten tournament, USC will be the No. 1 overall. But if Texas keeps winning, the Trojans are essentially blocked. Texas is already ahead and will play better teams overall on the way to a conference tournament title.”

Megan Gauer, Her Hoop Stats: “There’s a path to the No. 1 overall seed for USC, but it will require some help from Texas in the SEC Tournament. Right now, the Longhorns have a clear edge at 12-2 in Quad 1 games compared to 10-2 for the Trojans. The loss to Iowa also hurts USC when compared with a Texas team that has lost only to Notre Dame and South Carolina. I think USC would need to win the Big Ten tournament and the Longhorns would have to lose before the SEC Championship for the Trojans to get the top seed.”

Mark Schindler, the Athletic: “Absolutely. Considering how much things have mucked up at the top relative to past years, I think four teams still have a great shot at the No. 1 overall seed: Both California schools, Texas, and South Carolina. Based on how the Selection Committee has seemed to view all four of their resumes, going through the conference tournament unscathed and defeating the opposing challenger in conference for the same spot, will provide a pretty good path. A lot can change during the conference tournament week.”

What’s the best case scenario right now for the Ivy League? Is it really possible for it to get three bids?

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Creme: “Two seems realistic. I have felt for a while that three might be a stretch. That’s largely because two of the three in the running will lose. That said, the at-large pool is shallow. If Columbia wins Ivy Madness and Virginia Tech and Arizona both do nothing next week then I don’t know where else to go than to possibly have three Ivy teams in. But either Princeton or Harvard losing in the semifinals makes it tough to put them in. Therein lies one of the committee’s biggest dilemmas.”

Gauer: “Three bids is not out of the question, but I think two bids is the most likely scenario for the Ivy League. Right now I think Harvard has the best at-large resume with two Quad 1 wins, which includes a win over Indiana. That said, these teams all have pretty similar resumes. Even if we enter Ivy Madness on March 14 with all three teams in the field, one is likely to knock another out in the conference tournament. Likely the two that play each other in the conference final will make it to the Big Dance.”

Schindler: “I think the best case scenario is that Columbia gets in as an at-large and Harvard wins the league by beating Columbia in the Ivy Championship game. A three-bid league looks pretty out of the question now given how some other teams in the bubble have fared to close the year.”

It seems like Notre Dame’s back-to-back losses to N.C. State and Florida State pushed it off the one-line. Is there a road for any ACC team — presumably the Irish or the Wolfpack — to grab a No. 1 seed?

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Creme: “N.C. State isn’t getting a No. 1 seed unless something crazy happens. South Carolina would have to lose before the SEC final, probably before the semifinals. UConn would have to get upset in the Big East. Or UCLA would have to lose to someone other than USC. Notre Dame would have to lose, but obviously, the Wolfpack would be taking care of that. Notre Dame still can with an easier path. They are in a better position and have a better resume than the Wolfpack. But help is still needed. The Irish have to win the ACC Tournament and have South Carolina or UCLA not win their tournaments. If South Carolina loses a close game to Texas and UCLA does the same against USC, it still may not be enough with how the committee has done things so far, but I do think an ACC Tournament title will carry some weight. I would put the odds stronger on ND being a 2 rather than a No. 1 though.”

Gauer: “There’s not a path for N.C. State to grab a No. 1 seed, but it’s certainly still in play for the Irish. That path needs to start with Notre Dame winning the ACC Championship. The Irish recovered well at home against Louisville in the regular season finale after the back-to-back losses, but will need to continue winning in the conference tournament to trend back up in the bracket. With the loss to Florida State, an ACC Championship probably won’t be enough to push the Irish back to the top seed line. They’ll also need South Carolina or UCLA to falter in their conference tournaments to open up a spot.”

Schindler: “I could wind up wrong on this, but both are still in play for a No. 1 seed, with N.C. State probably having a lower chance at the moment. But, winning the ACC Tournament convincingly would go a long way for either team. I’d add that this is where some luck along the way will be key. We thought Stanford was a lock for the No. 1 seed all of last season until they stumbled against Arizona at home. While the regular season is over, any sort of early upset in other conference tournaments opens the door for a team that goes on a run and wins out.”

Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly are sidelined for North Carolina. Ayoka Lee is out again for Kansas State. Talaysia Cooper’s status for Tennessee seems uncertain. All three teams have lost two in a row. Could injuries force these teams out of the top 16?

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Creme: “Just the injuries themselves won’t force those teams out. But the losses that are a result of these teams not having their best players will. And that is what we are seeing. Since player availability is no longer an official selection criterion, these situations are more results oriented. That’s not to say the committee members aren’t discussing who has played (or is playing) in certain games during the season and the health of teams now, but it’s not official. We might be seeing UNC running out of gas without Ustby and Kelly with what happened Sunday.”

Gauer: “Amongst this group, North Carolina is the safest to stay in the top 16 and unlikely to fall out. While the Tar Heels’ success in March largely hinges on having Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly back on the court, with the back-to-back losses they’re still 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Virginia loss on Sunday dropped North Carolina from a No. 3 seed to a No. 4 seed, but they’re unlikely to fall further. For Tennessee, picking up a Quad 4 loss to Georgia at home pretty much eliminated the Vols from a chance to host the first two rounds. Losing to Kentucky by 24 points on Thursday also didn’t do Tennessee any favors. The loss to the Wildcats in itself is not a bad one, but the non-competitive margin hurts the Lady Vols’ resume. While Talaysia Cooper’s status being questionable didn’t force them out, Tennessee would need a deep run in the SEC tournament to make a case to rejoin the top-16, and that’s a much taller task if Cooper is not at 100 percent. Kansas State is perhaps the most perplexing case here, knowing that Ayoka Lee is not expected back until the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats lost just one game (Duke) with Lee this season and five without her. Given the uncertainty around her return, I think Kansas State falls out of the top 16 after losing four of its last seven games to end the regular season. They could play their way back in, but need to win at least two, and more likely three games this weekend.”

Schindler: “At the time of writing, both Tennessee and Kansas State have dropped out of hosting, and UNC is down to a No. 4 seed. The committee has shown some willingness to appreciate injury impact in prior years, but that seemed more in the light of being willing to overlook a poor loss in the middle of the season. When a team is struggling to end the year, that’s where we typically see teams fall. I’d look at a team like Maryland, who suffered a string of massive injuries right at the start of Big Ten play and the Texas game, but closed strong and healthy, as a team that gets a better shot at hosting.”

Among teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble, which one has the toughest path to get an NCAA Tournament bid?

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Creme: “As I said, the depth on the bubble is almost non-existent this year. Virginia Tech and Arizona are the only teams I see from the outside with a realistic chance and those resumes are thin. Arizona’s climb is harder because the Wildcats’ 8-9 game in the Big 12 Tournament against Colorado (likely) isn’t as good as Virginia Tech’s opportunity in an 8-9 game against Georgia Tech. That both have to play No. 1 seeds in the quarterfinals can be looked at as a great opportunity or a tough draw. Playing well in such a game, though, can go a long way.”

Gauer: “In general, the bubble is rather weak for this year’s tournament. For the mid-major teams currently sitting on the wrong side of it (Princeton, George Mason, Saint Joseph’s) earning the auto-bid with a conference championship win is likely the only way in. For Princeton, a trip to the Ivy Madness final may be enough. For a power conference team, Arizona is the closest to the field. The Wildcats would need to pick up some quality wins to make the jump. That likely needs to look like beating TCU in a Big 12 Quarterfinal and either West Virginia or Kansas State in a Big 12 Semifinal, neither of which are easy tasks.”

Schindler: “Colorado. I’ve been really impressed with the way JR Payne and her staff pivoted and rebuilt this team on the fly after losing so much. They picked up some key wins over the first half of Big 12, looked en route to a potential at-large, and unfortunately got crushed by injuries to close the year, and went 2-6. They have to make significant noise in the conference tournament just to have a shot to make the field. But, they were the first team out of getting a bye for the Big 12 Tournament, which means a gauntlet stretch of back-to-backs even if you find a way to win. They need some magic.”

What mid-major conference tournaments should folks keep an eye on for a potential bid-stealer to rise out of?

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Creme: “The only sure-fire bid-stealing leagues are the A-10 (Richmond) and the Summit (South Dakota State). Teams like James Madison, UNLV, and Fairfield enter the bubble mix should they lose in their championship games, but the resumes of these teams are not good. UNLV and Fairfield don’t have a single Quad 1 or 2 win.”

Gauer: “I mentioned George Mason and Saint Joseph’s above, and the A-10 is certainly one to keep an eye on. Richmond, which finished at the top of the league, is an at-large team. The Spiders beat the Patriots and Hawks (twice) in the regular season, but all three games were decided by single digits. If George Mason or Saint Joseph’s can pull off the upset, the league will get two teams in. Also keep an eye on the Summit League, where South Dakota State is an at-large team, for another potential bid stealer situation. If anyone can upset the Jackrabbits for the title, the Summit will place two teams in the field.”

Schindler: “The A-10 is probably the only conference that looks like it could provide a bid stealer this season. Richmond is a lock for the NCAA Tournament as long as it doesn’t lose in its first game of the conference tourney. But, the Spiders had a dominant 17-1 run in A-10 play, so it’ll be much easier said than done.”

You can check out the latest brackets from Creme, Gauer and Schindler here: ESPN | Her Hoop Stats | The Athletic