Whole Hog Politics: Voters fear competence more than bungling from Trump

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On the menu: Partisan divide on NATO; Funky foliage; Dems clash over youth movement; McConnell replacement primary ugly already; Nobody comes out clean 

The late, great Charles Krauthammer famously told us that “bungled collusion is still collusion.” But bungling does count for something.

Dr. K was talking about the reversal by the Trump family after six months of abject denials that anything improper had happened between it and Russians peddling dirt on then-rival Hillary Clinton. When the emails eventually came out, it was revealed that Donald Trump Jr. was a knowing and enthusiastic participant. 

“It is not merely stupid,” Krauthammer wrote. “It is also deeply wrong, a fundamental violation of any code of civic honor.”

Fair enough, but the stupidity did matter. The doofiness of the effort — the goofball, "Spy vs. Spy" nature of it all — was perhaps comforting to voters in its own way. If these were not serious people, maybe it confirmed their amateur status. The Trumps were show business folks unfamiliar with the ways of politics and government: ambitious outsiders who got tangled up in Washington’s game of power and deceit.

That revelation was an essential ingredient in the formation of what President Trump calls “Russia, Russia, Russia,” his name for the long-running investigation into the Kremlin’s effort to meddle in the 2016 election. Trump blames the probe for everything from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to his son’s divorce. 

But while one couldn’t say that the probe “cleared” the Trumps, it did explode the ideas put forward by Democrats that the family and its political team were part of some sophisticated, long-running "Manchurian Candidate" plot to take down the U.S. government from within. After years of “bombshell” reports and promises that the “walls were closing in” on the Trumps, the conclusion was, again, that these were unsophisticated amateurs who couldn’t run a White House effectively, let alone orchestrate an elaborate scheme to dismantle the world’s oldest democracy.

It was much the same with President Trump’s effort to steal a second term and the Jan. 6, 2021, riot that tried to disrupt the certification of his successor. One did not look at Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell and John Eastman and think that the new Whiz Kids had come to town. The evidence confirmed that while the then and future president had certainly tried a soft coup to remain in power, the effort was often preposterously, hilariously incompetent. And while there is lots to prove that right-wing agitators planned to turn Trump’s mob at the Capitol into a riot, there was no case to be made that the president or his team planned the violence that occurred. Trump encouraged what happened that day by a combination of reckless incitement and willful neglect, but no one could say it was a master plan. 

That was certainly the message Republicans carried forward into Trump’s second impeachment and 2024 campaign. The bungling of the effort was essential to the defense against the Democrats’ charge of insurrection. The story of an unsophisticated amateur and his team of misfits who sincerely believed in pandemic-fueled election fraud and ended up crashing into the sturdy barricades of the constitutional order turned out to be pretty easy to swallow. Trump acted on his bad impulses, but, ultimately, the system held. 

Trump’s bungling has been an essential ingredient to his success. If one believes, as most Americans do, that our system is broken, then having a bungling disruptor might be even better than having a ruthlessly effective one. Sending someone to shake up the bipartisan establishment and provide a credible — but not too credible — threat to the way Washington operates could be a good thing. Trump may act like a toddler, but maybe he is keeping everyone on their toes, right?

Both the president’s supporters and opponents told us that this time would be different, though. Trump, steeled by the failures of his first term, was prepared to be not just a disruptor, but to build a new order with an experienced team, an effective transition and a well-thought-out playbook ready to go. Sharpened in purpose by his criminal prosecutions and near death at the hands of a would-be assassin, Trump 47 would not be lost in a welter of self-defeating distractions the way Trump 45 had been.

The idea of the ruthlessly effective Trump has had a very unhappy April.

Current Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and his affection for insecure communications stand out as very Trump 1.0 stuff. Is Hegseth systematically dismantling the Western alliance from within, or is he an overconfident amateur in way over his head? A man with a plan or another show business guy who got tripped up in Washington? 

What about Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) boss, Elon Musk? After an expensive and embarrassing loss in a Wisconsin state election on April 1, the tech billionaire has been publicly feuding with the mothers of some of his many children, slashing his own estimates of the government savings he and his team could achieve, seeing embarrassing details of interadministration defeats fed to the press and playing contrite CEO as car buyers and investors brutally punish his biggest company for his forays into politics. Is this the leader of a corps of shock troops reinventing government, or a clumsy effort by a famous businessman?

And then there’s Trump himself. He started April with the most audacious move of his second term so far: massive, far-reaching tariffs that we were told were designed to inflict intense economic pain, pain that Americans would have to endure to fundamentally remake the global economy. Business leaders, investors and consumers, who had heard for months about how “this time is different” with Trump, believed him and responded accordingly. 

One week later, Trump shelved most of the tariffs for three months but then jacked up the tariffs on China. A week or so after that, he exempted the largest category of imports from China and is now trying to make Americans think that the Sino-U.S. trade war he said would revive American manufacturing is well on its way to a quick resolution. He’s preparing the “termination” of the chair of the Federal Reserve. He “never did” intend to fire him. Oh. 

A similar story has emerged this month on Trump’s biggest foreign policy gamble. The president and his team convinced Americans and the world that he was prepared to feed Ukraine into the hungry maw of Russian expansion because Ukraine "started" the war. The message from the administration was clear: America was out of patience, and if Ukraine didn’t accept Russia’s terms for peace, Trump was prepared to let Russian President Vladimir Putin crush his neighbor. Putin also apparently believed that “this time is different” with Trump and responded in the logical way, ignoring ceasefires and intensifying his attacks on Ukraine. Now, Trump is sounding uncomfortable with the whole ruthless thing since it means looking like a patsy for the guy who was the villain in the whole “Russia, Russia, Russia” affair. Will Trump ditch NATO and let Putin humiliate the West? Or will he flinch and stay stuck in the stalemate he inherited? We know what Trump 45 did. Is Trump 47 really a different animal?  

From “the Epstein files” to the DOGE firings and rehirings to the botched deportations, there is a great deal of evidence that Americans are, in fact, getting what many swing voters who backed Trump expected: often-bungling amateurism from a disruptive outsider. Trump 2.0 is looking increasingly like the original version.

The danger for Trump and the nation, though, is that with fewer guardrails in place this time, he may stumble into serious, lasting trouble. 

A pair of polls out this week, one from Trump’s alma mater, the University of Pennsylvania, and another from the Pew Research Center, confirm that as much as voters think the system is broken, they want those guardrails to hold. 

While it’s not surprising that Republicans take a more sanguine view about expanding presidential power with one of their own in charge, the University of Pennsylvania survey still found broad bipartisan consensus that presidents should not be able to ignore court orders or enact policies without congressional approval. The Pew study was even more pointed: Just 19 percent of respondents said Trump could ignore a lower court ruling against his administration, and only 9 percent said the same of the Supreme Court. 

The “this time is different” folks in Washington are responding to the administration’s suggestion that it might trigger a constitutional crisis by refusing to comply with court orders. If you thought Trump was sensitive to the backlash against a trade war, a Fed takeover and letting Putin slaughter Ukrainians, imagine what would happen if he declared himself explicitly above the law.

Political gravity is setting in for Trump, sending his approval ratings down to levels similar to those earned by former President Biden when he limped out of office, not because of the bungling but because too many people believe that he actually might really be able to do the things he’s long threatened. 

It’s a very unusual kind of crisis of competence.

Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com. If you’d like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don’t want your comments to be made public, please specify.

NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION 

Trump Job Performance

Average Approval: 43.4%

Average Disapproval: 53.8%

Net Score: -10.4 points

Change from last week: -2.4 points

Change from last month: -4.2 points

[Average includes: Fox News: 44 percent approve, 55 percent disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters: 42 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove; Pew: 40 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove; CNBC: 44 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove; Echelon Insights: 47 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove]

Huge partisan divides on NATO

% who think the U.S. benefits from being a member of NATO

Republicans

• Not too much/not at all: 50%
• A great deal/fair amount: 49%

Democrats

• Not too much/not at all: 16% 
• A great deal/fair amount: 83%

[Pew Research Center poll of U.S. adults, March 2025]

ON THE SIDE: ‘SWAMP CABBAGE’

Garden & Gun: “Of the eleven species of palm trees native to Florida, the sabal palm is by far the most prolific, growing statewide from the Panhandle all the way to the Keys. … Fittingly, the species has been the state tree of Florida since 1953 and provides a nostalgic treat for Floridians: swamp cabbage. … The heart of sabal palm has fed Florida for millennia. The Seminole and Calusa ate it. More recently, it became a traditional dish of early settlers and cattle ranchers who became known as Florida cracker cowboys. … After a good wash and slicing, the swamp cabbage is ready for preparation. ‘Traditionally, it’s braised with tomatoes, onions, and ham hocks, rib meat, or smoked meat,’ says Matt Fulwood. … Swamp cabbage can be harvested all year long, but its most often associated with festivals and family gatherings in winter and spring. ‘Swamp cabbage isn’t something that you really see at restaurants, but it’s a delight to Floridians that remember eating it.’” 

PRIME CUTS 

DNC chair emphasizes neutrality as Hogg goes rogue: The Hill: “Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin said Thursday that the committee’s officers are not free to get involved in the party’s primaries amid DNC Vice Chair David Hogg’s efforts to primary safe House Democrats ahead of next year’s midterms. ‘No DNC officer should ever attempt to influence the outcome of a primary election,’ Martin told reporters on a press call. … ‘While certainly I understand what he’s trying to do, as I’ve said to him — if you want to challenge incumbents, you’re free to do that, just not as an officer of the DNC,’ he continued. … The DNC chair’s comments came amid reports he would announce a proposal to change the party’s rules requiring all DNC officers stay neutral in intraparty contests. … Hogg made headlines last week when his group Leaders We Deserve announced a $20 million effort to primary safe House Democrats.” 

Stevens joins a suddenly packed Michigan Senate field: Detroit Free Press: “U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, a former Obama administration official who worked with the task force that rescued General Motors and what was then Chrysler from financial doom in 2009-10 and went on to flip a previously reliably Republican congressional district based in Oakland County in 2018, is running for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat. … Stevens joins a Democratic race that is already getting crowded, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County health director Dr. Abdul El-Sayed already announced, former state House Speaker Joe Tate eyeing the race and state Attorney General Dana Nessel talked up as a possible candidate. … Ideologically, Stevens has been a reliable Democratic vote throughout her tenure in Congress…though she is seen as a member of the party's more centrist mainstream than as taking more vocally and aggressively progressive positions.” 

Durbin bows out after three decades in the Senate: Chicago Tribune: “Dick Durbin, whose tenure as one of Illinois’ longest serving U.S. senators has also been a testament to the power of seniority in the chamber, announced Wednesday he would not seek a sixth term next year. … With Durbin’s announcement setting off a potential domino effect among Illinois Democratic members of Congress and others angling to run for his Senate seat, he did not offer an endorsement of a potential successor. … Several Democrats have begun lining up for the chance to replace Durbin, but have been holding off while awaiting his decision. Among those who have demonstrated interest are U.S. Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi of Schaumburg, Lauren Underwood of Naperville and Robin Kelly of Matteson, as well as Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton.” 

Pritzker’s deep pockets promise early shadow campaign: Wall Street Journal: “JB Pritzker, an heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, has become one of the most-outspoken critics of Trump. Wealth has long opened doors for Pritzker and there are signs he wants the next one to be into the Oval Office. … The 60-year-old is visiting New Hampshire, traditional home of the nation’s first presidential primary, to speak April 27 at a party fundraiser about what he sees as Trump’s authoritarianism and to call Democrats to action. … ‘There is no doubt that he is going to run,’ said Chicagoan Bill Daley. … The governor, who declined an interview, has yet to say whether he will seek a third term. … Pritzker, Daley said, has the financial wherewithal to do something most candidates couldn’t: announce a presidential bid in 2026 and lock down the best available campaign staff talent.” 

Kentucky hopefuls take turns bashing McConnell: The Downballot: “Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr announced Tuesday that he would enter the Republican primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. … Barr kicked off his long-awaited campaign two months after former Attorney General Daniel Cameron joined the race. Because Barr, who was first elected to represent central Kentucky in 2012, can transfer all his House campaign money into his new effort, he begins with a giant fundraising lead. … While both Barr and Cameron described the senator they're seeking to replace as their “mentor” over the last few years, the two have spent the last several months attacking McConnell for voting against several Trump administration nominees. … At least one more candidate might surface, though. Wealthy businessman Nate Morris, who counts JD Vance as a friend, is considering running for Senate.” 

SHORT ORDER 

Jason Carter, grandson of former president, passes on bid for Georgia  governor—Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Chaos reigns in Arizona Democratic Party—Politico 

Polls: Voters like cutting government waste, but down on DOGE, Musk—New York Times

Turnout shift, not shifting attitudes fueled Dem win in Wisconsin—Split Ticket

Goodlander won’t run for Senate, clearing field for Pappas in New Hampshire—Boston Globe

Former NFL kicker Jay Feely kicks off House campaign in Arizona—The Hill 

TABLE TALK

Bringing the heat

“There’s a lot — a lot — of smoke come out of the Pentagon, and I got to believe there’s some fire there somewhere.”—Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon becomes the first House Republican to suggest that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is no longer fit for the job.

You should email us! Write to WholeHogPolitics@TheHill.com with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name—at least first and last—and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the fortnightly Nate Moore, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack!

FOR DESSERT

Load-bearing arguments: The Atlantic: “When the couples therapist inevitably asks, I’ll have an answer ready: The trouble began in August 2017, when my boyfriend and I moved in together, and I quickly revealed myself to be an absolute ding-dong at loading the dishwasher. … Judging by the sheer volume of dishwasher-loading advice, commentary, and anxiety on the internet, I am not alone in any of this. There are YouTube videos with titles such as ‘You’re Doing It Wrong!’ and ‘Passive Aggressive Tutorials.’ … Last year, when YouGov asked 38,000 American adults about how cutlery should be loaded into the dishwasher, no single approach achieved a majority. … I’d decided enough was enough. It was time to finally understand the dishwasher. As soon as I started trying, one sentence began to haunt me. People repeated it to me; it showed up over and over when I searched online for information about dishwashers and dishwasher conflict. It was this: ‘In every relationship, there’s one person who loads the dishwasher like a Scandinavian architect, and one who loads it like a raccoon on meth.’” 

Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of The Hill Sunday on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Nate Moore contributed to this report.