What matters most after Marko revived Verstappen exit talk

Helmut Marko’s fear that Max Verstappen could leave Red Bull has revived speculation about the Formula 1 world champion’s potential exit at a fitting moment.

Verstappen’s future will likely be a talking point again in Saudi Arabia, 12 months on from when he spelled out his alliance with Marko in very clear terms amid a Red Bull power struggle and controversy involving Christian Horner that put the team boss at odds with Verstappen’s father Jos.

On-track, Red Bull is in worse shape than it was in Jeddah a year ago. Off-track, the discontent has been more muted.

But it has not disappeared completely - it’s just less explosive than a year ago when the Horner saga was at its peak, Verstappen Sr was pushing a very clear ‘Red Bull is collapsing’ narrative, and Max threw his support behind Marko when the Red Bull senior motorsport advisor’s future was suddenly up in the air.

A very poor Bahrain Grand Prix weekend for Red Bull inevitably sparked speculation over Verstappen’s levels of discontent, and Marko fuelled a lot of it by admitting he is worried that Max will leave the team.

There was also widespread attention on a claim during Sky Sports F1’s coverage that Verstappen’s manager Raymond Vermeulen had a heated exchange with Horner post-race, plus the fact senior Red Bull figures Horner, Marko, technical director Pierre Wache, and chief engineer Paul Monaghan were seen by many conducting an immediate meeting in the paddock.

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This has all played nicely into a narrative that Red Bull’s in chaos, and a crisis - and that Verstappen could want out, or already does.

Although no speculation can convincingly reconcile the issue of ‘if Verstappen leaves, where would he go?’ with the fact that Mercedes has a very high performing George Russell alongside its rookie ace Kimi Antonelli and Aston Martin is all kinds of underwhelming ahead of its impending Honda alliance. Unless Mercedes privately intends to ditch Russell after all.

Before engaging in that, though, some perspective is required. Because unless something has shifted quite suddenly - which cannot be ruled out, but seems unlikely given the Verstappen camp and Max himself have stressed at times this year his preference and intention is to stay with Red Bull at least for 2026 - Verstappen’s situation has not changed on one bad weekend in Bahrain alone, especially as Red Bull and Verstappen knew it would be a struggle anyway.

Similarly, Verstappen’s brilliant pole and win in Japan was not a sign that everything would be alright in the end with Red Bull and he was definitely going to stick around because it was clearly on the up.

The truth lies somewhere between those extremes. Most likely, the ire of Verstappen and his camp in Bahrain was targeted at the operational errors that meant Red Bull made things even harder than it needed to be. This is the kind of thing that Max has extremely low tolerance for - he can accept that sometimes he will not have the fastest car, but avoidable and/or self-inflicted errors are harder to swallow.

Hence Marko took aim at Red Bull’s poor practice form and how often it is playing catch up after Fridays, Sky reporter Ted Kravitz reckons the ire he witnessed from Vermeulen was over the botched Bahrain pitstops, and Verstappen himself said “everything went wrong that could go wrong”.

Those are issues of real substance that, if sustained, will drive Verstappen away - that and a belief he cannot fight for championships with Red Bull anymore. He is already wary that, on this form, he is not really in a 2025 battle. That is what Red Bull fears. Not an uncompetitive weekend with a still-problematic car, on a track they all knew would expose the weaknesses.

So when Marko says he fears Verstappen’s exit, consider these questions. Who is he saying this for? Because there have been plenty of occasions going back several years where Red Bull has been keen to stress Marko speaks for himself, not the team. And linked to that - why might Marko be saying this? It could easily be because if Verstappen goes, Marko will be vulnerable.

Of course, Marko could have just been asked the question and answered bluntly and honestly.

Marko often openly criticises various parts of the team - criticising the preparation in advance of the weekend, the faults with pitstops, the design of the car and so on. No other team faces such regular critical briefings from one of its own senior figures and the circumstances of Bahrain exacerbated that.

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But ultimately, Marko expressing a fear of losing Verstappen means nothing unless there’s been a shift to make it more likely and there’s no immediate sign Bahrain changed the fundamentals.

All of this was already the case before that weekend: that Verstappen wants a competitive car, that Red Bull has a difficult car, that Verstappen knows this season will be tough, that without car improvements a contract clause could come into effect giving him the potential to leave if he wanted to, and that Red Bull also faces a likely engine deficit at the start of 2026.

So, the only thing that will alter Verstappen’s course in the short-term is if something about Red Bull’s prospects for the new rules has recently set an alarm bell ringing, if he has lost faith in its development capabilities, or indeed if the other operational issues in Bahrain like with the brakes or pitstops have made him think that even Red Bull’s sharpest edges have now been dulled.

It’s possible Bahrain impacted that, of course. And who knows what machinations are taking place behind the scenes. Maybe there has been some movement in secret talks with Mercedes or another team that nobody is aware of yet?

The point is that these factors are more important than Marko observing for the umpteenth time that Red Bull could lose Verstappen if it’s not a top team anymore.

Because that really shouldn’t need to be said.