Trump trade war could reshape 2026 battle for the Senate  

Republicans are heavily favored to keep control of the Senate in next year’s midterm elections, but President Trump’s sinking approval rating and Americans’ frustrations over the direction of the economy and inflation could reshape the battleground map in favor or Democrats.

Trump is getting high marks for securing the U.S.-Mexico border, but a new Fox News poll found that only 38 percent of registered voters approve of his handling of the economy and only 33 percent think he’s doing a good job on fighting inflation.

Trump lashed out Thursday against the Fox News poll on Truth Social, urging Rupert Murdoch to “get rid” of his “Trump Hating, Fake Pollster.”

Yet the Fox News poll isn’t the only one showing some trouble for Trump.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll released Wednesday also showed surveyed Americans giving Trump low marks on the economy. The survey found that just 37 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the issue.

The economy was the top issue in the 2024 election and is likely to be voters’ top priority again in 2026, and that has Senate Republicans nervous about political headwinds heading into next year if Trump doesn’t find a way to resolve the trade war with China and other countries that is rattling the financial markets and the broader economy.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) warned before the Easter recess that Republicans could have a major political problem if White House officials don’t find a way to resolve Trump’s trade war within the next few months.

“No doubt, if we’re having the same discussions about tariffs in February of next year, all the indicators would be ‘wrong track,’” he said earlier this month.

Tillis, who is up for reelection next year, warned the administration has about 10 months to resolve high tariffs “or you’re going to start seeing political headwinds.”

Republicans hold 53 seats in the upper chamber, and Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take back the majority. That’s a tall task in a year where Democrats will also need to be defending a number of open seats.

Still, a minority party consumed by infighting a month ago over how to respond to Trump’s agenda now has a spring in its step.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) even predicted his party could win back the majority.

“In this election, we are going to be in the majority in 2027 because, first, people know that we are fighting for working families, but just as importantly, maybe even more importantly, they’re not going to want people, the Republicans, who embraced Trump,” he predicted Wednesday at the Semafor World Economy Summit.

“The electorate will desert the Republican candidates who embraced Trump in an overwhelming way."  

Democratic strategists say that Trump’s trade war could hurt the economy enough to reshape the Senate battleground map in 2026.

“I think it’s [a] game changer, I really do,” said Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist.

He acknowledged that Democrats have a tough race in Georgia, where they need to defend Sen. Jon Ossoff's (D) seat in a state that Trump won by 2 points in 2024, and they also need to worry about the seats being vacated in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire by retiring Sens. Gary Peters (Mich.), Tina Smith (Minn.) and Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.).

But he said if the trade war drags on, it could put states such as Iowa, where Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is up for reelection, and Ohio, where Sen. Jon Husted (R) was appointed to fill Vice President Vance’s seat, into play, even though Trump won them handily in 2024.

In Iowa, for example, underdog Democrat Mike Zimmer won a Senate district seat in a district that Trump carried by a 21-point margin over former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Jarding also cited Florida, a state that Trump won by 13 points, where Sen. Ashley Moody (R) was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as a state that could become suddenly competitive if the economy goes into a recession.

Jarding said if Trump doesn’t back off the trade war, it could put a number of Republican-leaning states in play.

“When you look at the numbers, if things go south, I’d target every one of these seats that are plus-8 points or less [in favor of Republicans],” he said. “It would not be crazy to say that Democrats have a legitimate shot."

“Democrats still have to hold their own, but I would bet there are seven or so Republican seats that would legitimately be in play if the economy continues to go south,” he said.

Senate Republicans are pushing back on the Democrats’ optimism, arguing they are still well positioned to keep the majority.

GOP strategists say they have a good pickup opportunity in Georgia and can play offense in Michigan, a state that Trump carried last year.

They also point out that Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is a battle-tested incumbent who managed to win reelection in 2020 by 9 percentage points even though former President Biden also won the state by a 9-point margin.

“Senate Republicans are in an incredible position to hold our majority, and the NRSC is prepared to do whatever it takes to expand it when voters head to the ballot box next November,” said Nick Puglia, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).  

“Democrats should get comfortable in the minority, and the only thing Chuck Schumer should be thinking about in 2027 is how he’ll fend off his own primary,” he said, referring to speculation that Schumer may face a primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) in 2028.

It’s not uncommon for Senate leaders to voice optimism over their prospects regardless of the cruel realities of politics. In 2024, Schumer said Senate Democrats could “pick up a seat or two” in the elections, and they instead lost three incumbents in Ohio, Montana and Pennsylvania.

But the big difference between then and now is that while 2024 was a referendum on Biden, 2026 will be a referendum on Trump.

Maeve Colton, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said Democrats have a Senate map “that is ripe with offensive opportunities, particularly when coupled with the building backlash against Republicans.”

Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said it would be a “heavy lift” for Democrats to take back the Senate in 2026 because they need a net pickup of four seats and there are only two obviously vulnerable GOP incumbents: Collins and Tillis.

“You can pretty easily find two targets but you need at least four and the other two targets have to be in states that Trump won by double digits,” he said.

But he noted that Democrats did well in House races in Iowa and successfully defended Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio in 2018, Trump’s first midterm election.

He said if it’s a “really good environment” for Democrats, more states could become competitive but cautioned “there are a lot of ‘ifs’ there.”

Kondik said the strength of the economy could be a major factor in next year’s election.

“You can see the danger signs for Republicans all over the place,” he said.

"Given where Trump's approval rating is going, Democratic recruitment might get easier because there might be some people who see what the environment, see what that situation is and decide they want to step forward," he said.