Things we know and think we know about division-leading Jets
Time for a temperature check. With Winnipeg sitting on a big lead atop the Central Division, Sportsnet’s Jacob Stoller breaks down what we know and think we know about the Jets.
WINNIPEG — Time for a temperature check.
As we approach the final month of the regular season, let’s take a step back and examine the things we know and things (we think) we know about these Winnipeg Jets.
Things we know: Following Friday’s 4-1 win over Dallas, Winnipeg has a 10-point lead on the Stars for first in the Central.
According to MoneyPuck.com, the Jets have an 89.1 per cent chance of winning the division.
But while the odds are certainly in Winnipeg’s favour, Dallas has two games in hand and a more favourable schedule. Ten of Dallas’ final 17 games are against non-playoff opponents. That includes eight matchups with teams already out of contention: Anaheim, Philadelphia, Seattle (twice), Nashville (twice), Pittsburgh and Detroit.
Winnipeg will face nine playoff-bound opponents — plus two teams right on the wild-card bubble in Utah and St. Louis — in its final 15 games.
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Things (we think) we know: Winnipeg will face Colorado or Dallas if (or when) it advances to the second round.
It might be premature to look two rounds ahead, but it’s fair to think the Jets should be able to put away Vancouver, Calgary, St. Louis or Utah in a first-round series.
So, pick your poison: Dallas or Colorado? You can chalk it up to recency bias, but I’d say Dallas.
While we’d love to see a slaying-of-the-dragon moment against Colorado, the Avs are a matchup nightmare for Winnipeg. It all comes down to speed. If you thought Colorado’s quickness was overwhelming last spring, wait until you see how much quicker it’s become since adding Martin Necas.
Dallas may be deeper than Colorado on paper but if I’m choosing between facing a balanced top nine in Dallas, or a team where Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar will be on the ice for over a third of the game, I’m going with the former.
Friday was a perfect example of some of Dallas’ shortcomings, namely its defensive zone coverage and entry defence. I think Winnipeg’s top line would exploit that over the course of a seven-game series. That said, the Stars’ league-best penalty kill could take the wind out of the sails of Winnipeg’s power play.
Things we know: Adam Lowry’s line has lost its offensive punch.
Lowry, Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton remain solid defensively, but their offensive output has dipped since reuniting after the 4 Nations break.
Here’s a look at the line’s recent stretch at five-on-five:
|
Niederreiter-Lowry-Appleton |
Goals per 60 minutes |
Chances/60 |
High-danger attempts/60 |
Expected goals/60 |
|
First 36 games |
2.39 |
25.22 |
11.59 |
2.82 |
|
Last 11 games |
1.55 |
22.79 |
10.39 |
2.10 |
Things (we think) we know: That third line will likely stay intact.
Aside from the odd in-game adjustment or an injury forcing his hand, head coach Scott Arniel doesn’t do much line juggling.
According to Moneypuck.com, the team’s top line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi has logged the most minutes among all forward lines this year (854.4 minutes) by a significant margin. Nikolaj Ehlers, Vladislav Namestnikov and Cole Perfetti rank ninth (494.3), while Lowry’s line trails them narrowly and sits 10th (481.5).
This team has talked a lot about wanting to be coached like a contender and build championship habits. If you want to be an elite team, you need to be able to adapt. Sometimes, you may have to bring the ‘ol line blender out. Given the leeway the Jets have, you’d think Arniel would want to try a few different bottom-six combinations. Better now as opposed to when your backs are against the wall in a playoff series.
Brandon Tanev would sure look good alongside Lowry. Maybe swap him with Niederreiter?
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Things we know: Each core player has taken massive steps this year.
Connor Hellebuyck is playing at a Hart-calibre level, boasting a .927 save percentage and six shutouts through 51 games.
Connor and Scheifele are scoring at 100- and 90-point paces, respectively. Both Ehlers and Vilardi are on pace to eclipse 70 points for the first time in their careers.
Josh Morrissey was phenomenal on the world’s biggest stage at the 4 Nations Face-Off. He keeps unlocking new levels to his game.
Dylan Samberg has developed from a third-pairing project into an impactful top-four defenceman.
Things (we think) we know: Winnipeg’s special teams are shaping up to be an asset, not a liability, come playoff time.
As Adjusted Hockey’s Paul Pidutti pointed out on X, each team that lost the special-teams battle in the first round wound up losing the series — including the Jets.
Fast forward to this year and the Jets have the best power play in the league and a penalty kill that’s on the upswing.
In adding a shot-blocking wizard in Luke Schenn and an energizer bunny in Tanev, the PK has a few more layers now, too.
