Tariffs Push US CEO Confidence to Multi-Year Low in April, Survey Finds

U.S. CEOs’ confidence in current business conditions have hit their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic as President Donald Trump’s tariff policy created new uncertainty for the economy, a new April survey by Chief Executive Group found.

The survey of 329 chief executives and business owners in the U.S., which is based on a 1-10 scale where 1 is poor and 10 is excellent, fell to 4.6 in April from 5 in March, a 28% drop since the start of 2025. Additionally, their 12-month outlook was steady from March at a 5 out of 10 — a 29% year to date drop and the lowest level since November 2012.

The decline in optimism was primarily attributed to Trump’s tariffs, with two-thirds (67%) of respondents saying they don’t approve and 76% saying it would negatively or very negatively impact their businesses this year. About 62% of respondents forecast a slowdown or recession in the next six months, up from 48% in March, and 14% predict a “severe recession,” up from just 3% last month.  

CEOs outlooks for revenues, profits, capital expenditures and hiring all dropped sharply for the month, with the latter faring the worst. Out of those polled from April 8 to 10, 39% said they would decrease their headcount, up from 11% in March. 81% now expect the cost of goods, services and labor to increase year over year in 2025, with half expecting a double-digit increase.

Though the White House has given somewhat of a reprieve with a 90-day pause on 75 of the countries impacted by the tariffs, Trump increased tariffs on China to 145%. The country, which is the second largest film market in the world, has retaliated by raising its own tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% and said it would “moderately reduce” film imports from the U.S., among other countermeasures.  

On Friday, the Trump administration set new guidance that smartphones and other electronics would be exempt from the China tariffs. However, Trump said in a Sunday Truth Social post that there was no exception announced and that the products are just being moved to a different bucket.

“We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations,” he added. “What has been exposed is that we need to make products in the United States, and that we will not be held hostage by other Countries, especially hostile trading Nations like China, which will do everything within its power to disrespect the American People. We also cannot let them continue to abuse us on Trade, like they have for decades, THOSE DAYS ARE OVER!”

Despite Trump’s post, U.S. stocks traded higher on the exemption on Monday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing over 400 points, the Nasdaq Composite up over 250 points and the S&P 500 up about 77 points.

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