Summer Box Office Preview: Which Breakout Hit Could Fuel a $4 Billion Season?

After a poor opening to 2025, one may wonder why so many in the movie theater business repeated the mantra “Survive ’til ’25” if this was how a year without pandemic or strike-induced release delays was going to start— 12% behind the first quarter of 2024.

But for exhibitors, much of the optimism for 2025 was rooted in a summer slate that promises a much more consistent level of grosses from week to week and, if a couple of films overperform, could exceed the $4.03 billion domestic total earned in summer 2023, which was led by films like “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and the historic duo of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer.”

Whether that optimistic outlook will come true is something industry insiders can’t agree on. The conservative estimates coming from some studio insiders who spoke to TheWrap predict a summer that is 4-8% down from the $3.6 billion summer of 2024, which saw a pair of billion-dollar hits bail theaters out from a terrible start to the season.

On the flip side, Gower Street Analytics is estimating a far more bullish $4.2 billion, a figure that would come if several blockbusters resonate with audiences and leg out without cannibalizing each other amidst the tight midsummer competition. A $4.2 billion total would be up 5% from 2023 and would be on par with the $4.18 billion average of the last three pre-pandemic summers of 2017-19.

Month-by-month breakdown

Last year, without a Marvel film to kick off the season and with the films “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa” disappointing at the box office, May box office totals crashed to $550 million, the worst since 1998. This was after a poor April with a $430 million total, combining for a months-long slump that didn’t end until mid-June with the release of what would be the year’s top grossing film, “Inside Out 2.”

May 2025 is much different. Marvel is back with “Thunderbolts*,” a film that won’t have a spectacular launch but is projected to do decently with a $73-75 million opening. New Line’s horror sequel “Final Destination: Bloodlines” and Lionsgate’s The Weeknd-fronted “Hurry Up Tomorrow” will help provide additional support before a Memorial Day weekend led by Disney’s remake of “Lilo & Stitch” and Paramount’s potential franchise finale: “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,” which could combine for a four-day total well above $180 million.

Beyond Memorial Day, big films will be coming out every weekend. After a pair of specialty releases in Focus’ new Wes Anderson feature “The Phoenician Scheme” and Neon’s feel-good “The Life of Chuck,” June will be loaded with films like Sony’s buzzy horror legacyquel “28 Years Later,” Universal’s remake of “How to Train Your Dragon” and Blumhouse’s action-horror sequel to “M3GAN.” Some original films will also be on the slate, including Pixar’s “Elio” and Apple’s massive, $300 million-plus budgeted “F1.”

And then in July comes a trio of films that could be candidates for the top grossers of the summer, starting with Universal’s “Jurassic World: Rebirth,” a film that is betting on the belief that the appeal of seeing CGI dinosaurs is so enduring that fans will come back for a reboot of a franchise that was already rebooted a decade ago.

Quickly following that will be two superhero films that could have a major impact on the future of the genre: DC’s “Superman” and Marvel’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.” The latter is the last shot for the MCU to hype fans up before next year’s star-studded sequel “Avengers: Doomsday.” The former is critical to Warner Bros.’ hopes to launch a brand-new DC Universe under the creative direction of James Gunn, who wrote and directed the new “Superman” film.

The season closes out in August with Universal/DreamWorks’ “The Bad Guys 2,” which could be a breakout sequel hit in a season with few animated offerings, followed by New Line’s attempt at original horror with “Weapons,” the latest from “Barbarian” writer/director Zach Cregger that was won in a heated bidding war. Other standout titles include Paramount’s revival of “The Naked Gun” and Angel Studios’ first acquisition title, the family-friendly horror comedy “Sketch.”

Where could the surprise hits come from?

One studio insider said his team’s estimate for the summer came from the low end of what they predict each title to earn, rather than assuming that a certain title will get the buzz needed to blast past $400 million domestic and $1 billion worldwide like “Barbie” or “Top Gun: Maverick.”

Such a conservative mindset is to be expected, especially at a time when Hollywood is so cost-conscious. But for all of the woes that have befallen the box office since the pandemic, it’s worth remembering that every summer since 2022 has yielded a breakout, $1 billion-plus megahit that exceeded expectations.

“Top Gun: Maverick” and “Barbie” were both looking like strong hits prior to their releases, but nobody expected them to leg out for weeks and set studio records. “Inside Out 2” was expected to at least match the $859 million total of its 2015 predecessor, but few people, if anyone, dreamed that it would reach a then-animation record $652 million domestic and $1.69 billion worldwide.

So the odds favor another big overperformer this summer, but what could it be?

Perhaps it’s “Lilo & Stitch,” the latest in a string of live-action Disney remakes — a practice whose future has been thrown into question with the failure of “Snow White” this past spring and the 2024 departure of Sean Bailey, Disney’s live-action production president who spearheaded the strategy.

Despite this, “Lilo & Stitch” has enjoyed positive reception to its marketing campaign, which has focused on a CGI Stitch that is extremely faithful to the design of the beloved 2002 original film. Driven by nostalgia from millennials who grew up seeing the original “Lilo & Stitch” — with many of them having kids of their own — this remake could be the most successful one for Disney since the pandemic. One need only look at the bevy of “Lilo & Stitch” merch that has permeated the last decade to recognize the film’s enduring appeal.

“F1,” which Warner Bros. will distribute, got some of the most positive reception from exhibitors at CinemaCon, where the film’s opening sequence, which was shot at the 24 Hours of Daytona, screened for convention-goers.

Made by the “Top Gun: Maverick” brain trust of producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Joseph Kosinski, the film has all the action and excitement of the Tom Cruise legacyquel and shares some broad plot beats with a story of an aging but still talented racing veteran, played by Brad Pitt, brought onto a racing team with a hot young talent that needs mentorship. “F1” could have the huge post-release buzz of “Maverick” or, more recently, “Sinners,” if critics and audiences respond to its gripping on-location race footage with raving acclaim.

And for all the discussion of whether superhero fatigue is sinking in, one can never count out “Superman” or “Fantastic Four,” both of which have built up months of buzz from their trailers and early press interviews.

Of course, given that both DC and Marvel have taken hits on fan goodwill in recent years, that buzz cannot be taken for granted the way it might have been when superhero excitement was at its peak in the 2010s. “Superman” and “Fantastic Four,” both franchise starters, will have to play by the same rules as every other film and could easily see big slides from their opening weekends if fans aren’t satisfied. But on the flip side, films like “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” have shown that hardcore and casual moviegoers alike are more than willing to flock back to theaters when the word-of-mouth is strong.

Amidst all this uncertainty, one thing is sure: The summer season will get a much better lead-in than it did last year. Thanks to the success of “A Minecraft Movie” and “Sinners,” as well as support from “The Accountant 2” and a re-release of “Star Wars: Episode III,” overall totals for this past weekend hit $146 million, more than double the $64.1 million overall total for the last weekend before summer 2024 kicked off.

That means millions more moviegoers coming in and seeing trailers for what will be gracing the big screen this summer and a better chance of them coming back for more. That’s the value of greater quantity and quality of films that theaters have been clamoring for ever since they reopened.

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