Stanley Cup Playoffs betting guide: Best odds for an upset in Round 1

Part of the charm of the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the potential for an unlikely upstart to take down a regular-season titan in dramatic fashion.

With that in mind, let’s look at all eight first-round series, ranked from “hardest to call” to “borderline sure thing,” according to the oddsmakers at BetMGM.

Tampa Bay (-105) vs. Florida (-115) | Full series preview

They play in the same state. They finished with pretty much the same record. They split the season series with two wins each. Naturally, their playoff series is the closest in terms of odds. But here’s the potential difference maker: Only one of these teams has Nikita Kucherov — and it happens to be the underdog. The league leader in points is looking for payback after the Panthers ousted the Lightning with ease in 2024. Kucherov (+550) is listed as favourite to pot the most goals in the series, though 40-goal scorers Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel are both appealingly on offer at +650.

Los Angeles (+100) vs. Edmonton (-120) | Full series preview

These two teams … again! Although L.A. is the underdog, this is probably their best chance to get past Connor McDavid and company. Sure, the Oilers have a more impressive array of top-end offensive firepower (duh). But the Kings are a fair bit deeper on offence and a little better on the back end, especially given the injury to Edmonton’s Mattias Ekholm. Indeed, Los Angeles seems better equipped this time around to defend against the scoring threat posed by McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That said, the Oilers are the sixth pick at BetMGM to win the Stanley Cup (+950). And McDavid is the favourite (+1300) to nab the Conn Smythe trophy. Betting on the Kings means betting against all that.

Dallas (+135) vs. Colorado (-160) | Full series preview

Welcome to the marquee matchup of 2025’s first round. As the playoffs begin, Colorado (+750) is the co-favourite at BetMGM to win the Stanley Cup. Dallas is the fourth pick at +850. Colorado’s strengths can be summed up in four words: Nathan, MacKinnon, Cale, and Makar. But the Stars have players on all three top lines who can find the net. They’ve got a Mikko Rantanen who has all the motivation in the world to perform against his former team. And they’ve got an elite power play that seems to just keep getting better. Are we sure the right team is favoured here? Either way, the oddsmakers see this matchup as most likely to go seven games. They’ve even set a tempting line (+260) on two games in the series going to overtime.

Toronto (-190) vs. Ottawa (+155) | Full series preview

The Battle of Ontario is renewed in the playoffs for the first time in 20-plus years, and if hockey fans can agree on nothing else, they can agree that the pressure is squarely on the team in blue. The Senators are filling the “just happy to be here” role after seven long seasons in the wilderness. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile … let’s just be kind and say they’ve shown a knack for finding interesting ways to kick off a vacation. Is Toronto a better team on paper? Yep. But if you feel the hockey gods aren’t yet done devising novel ways to torture Leaf fans, the oddsmakers at BetMGM have you covered: The Senators are a +550 pick to win the series in seven games, with the clincher coming on the ice at Scotiabank Arena. That one would sting all summer long.

Winnipeg (-220) vs. St. Louis (+180) | Full series preview

A 56-win season powered the Jets to the Presidents’ Trophy, but the BetMGM oddsmakers don’t see Winnipeg as the most likely team to advance from the first round. Could that have something to do with the team’s inelegant opening-round exit last season? Or perhaps the stellar play of the Blues during March and early April? Those who doubt that the Jets are mentally prepared are encouraged to check out this NHL.com quote from Winnipeg forward Alex Iafallo: “It’s going to be huge for us to get off to a good start… keep out mindset pushing forward. We’ve got to be ready to rock, pushing the puck forward and just getting on their defence.” Clearly, this team deserves not only the Presidents’ Trophy but the Cliché Chalice! They’re firing on all platitudes! Only logical then that they get pucks deep, grind it out, and stay within themselves straight into the second round.

Las Vegas (-250) vs. Minnesota (+200) | Full series preview

The Golden Knights come in rested. They come in favoured against one of the weakest teams in the playoff field. They come in with one of the best power plays in the league. This is the point where you might be expecting a “However…” or a “But hang on a moment…” followed by a dramatic pivot to the many strengths of the Wild. There will be no pivot. The Knights have talent up and down the roster. The Wild have Kirill Kaprizov. Oddsmakers at BetMGM think the most likely outcome is Las Vegas in five games (+350). Eager to go against the grain? Minnesota in seven would pay out quite nicely (+600).

Carolina (-250) vs. New Jersey (+200) | Full series preview

These two teams finished only eight points apart, but the Hurricanes (+800) stand as the fourth choice at BetMGM to win the Stanley Cup while the Devils (+4000) find themselves ahead of only the Montreal Canadiens among the longshots. But hey, who doesn’t love a longshot? If the Devils were to pull off one of the bigger upsets of the first round, how would they do it? First, they’d need to capitalize on a lot of man-advantage opportunities. Their power play is a strength. Second, Jacob Markstrom would need to pull off a reasonable impression of Martin Brodeur. Improbable, obviously, but the goalie has teased elite form in a few recent games. And third, the Devils would need someone unexpected to step up and fill the void left by the injury to Jack Hughes. Nico Hischier, anyone? He’s the +600 second choice to score the most goals in the series.

Washington (-270) vs. Montreal (+210) | Full series preview

According to BetMGM, this is the most lopsided matchup of the first round. The Canadiens needed until the 82^nd of 82 games to secure a post-season spot, and they are the only playoff team in the East with a negative goal differential. Among their few advantages: momentum. Montreal finished looking strong. Washington finished looking disinterested. Those in search of another reason to back the underdogs might settle on the fact that the Capitals rode a league-high 5-on-5 shooting percentage to first place in the East. An inopportune goal drought could pave the way to an upset. That said, pretty much every “expert” is picking the Caps to saunter into the second round. And when has a favourite ever failed to come through?  

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