Padres Extend Jackson Merrill

The Padres announced that they have signed star outfielder Jackson Merrill to a nine-year contract extension that runs through 2034 with a club option for 2035. Reportedly, it guarantees the star $135MM, per Robert Murray of Fansided. There are plate appearance escalators that can push it to $165MM, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. MLBTR has learned the details on those escalators: each time Merrill gets to 500 plate appearances in a season, he adds $1MM to his future salaries for the 2030-2034 seasons. The deal can max out at $204MM and includes a $30MM club option for a tenth season that can be converted to a player option. Per Russell Dorsey of Yahoo, there’s a $10MM signing bonus. Dorsey adds that the club option becomes a player option with a top five finish in MVP voting, while a top ten finish is also an escalator. The outfielder is represented by KHG Sports Management.

Merrill’s 2024 breakout was a stunningly impressive part of the 2024 season. It didn’t completely come out of nowhere, as Merrill was a first-round pick, selected 27th overall in 2021. He was one of the top prospects in baseball during his time in the minors. However, by the end of the 2023 season, his experience was still limited. He was drafted out of high school, meaning he had not played college ball. His minor league track record consisted of just 200 games. None of those were at the Triple-A level and only 46 were at Double-A. He wouldn’t celebrate his 21st birthday until April 19th of 2024.

On top of his youth and inexperience, the Padres were asking him to make a major defensive shift. He had primarily been a shortstop in the minors but the Friars had Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts in their middle infield. In center field, Trent Grisham’s bat had fallen off and the Padres sent him to the Yankees as part of the Juan Soto deal. The Padres tried Merrill there in the spring, liked the results and gave him the job.

In spite of his talents, it would have been understandable if there were some growing pains for a guy so young and learning a premium defensive position on the fly. But no such pains were evident, as Merrill flourished. He hit 24 home runs for the Padres last year. His 4% walk rate was low but he also kept his strikeouts down to a 17% clip. His .292/.326/.500 batting line translated to a 130 wRC+, indicating he was 30% better than league average. He stole 16 bases in 19 tries. Defensive Runs Saved considered him to be league average in center, no small feat given the circumstances. Even more impressively, he was credited with 11 Outs Above Average, a mark that put him in the top ten of center fielders last year.

The overall package was very strong. FanGraphs credited him with 5.3 wins above replacement and Baseball Reference 4.4. That would have made him a slam-dunk Rookie of the Year in many seasons, but Merrill was up against Paul Skenes and his incredible debut. Merrill got seven out of 30 first-place votes and finished second to Skenes in National League ROY voting. He also finished ninth in the Most Valuable Player vote.

Kim departed via free agency and the Padres could have considered moving Merrill back to shortstop this year, though president of baseball operations A.J. Preller quickly shot that down in October. The move to center field had gone so smoothly that they didn’t want to mess with it. The 2025 season could hardly have started better. Merrill has a line of .400/.435/.600 through six games as the Padres are undefeated.

The Padres clearly love Merrill. That’s why they nabbed him with a first-round pick and promoted him so quickly. They also reportedly discussed an extension with him prior to his debut, showing tremendous faith in him before he had even proved himself in the majors.

After that breakout, they probably wished they had got something done ahead of time, as he only increased his earning potential last year. Broadly speaking, extension prices go up as guys get further into their arbitration years and closer to free agency. We can only guess what number it would have taken to get a deal done a year ago. The Padres have had plenty of financial pressures in recent years but Merrill’s price would likely only go up over time, so now is better than later.

In terms of pre-arbitration extensions, Merrill comes in a bit below the top guarantees but on a shorter deal that will still allow him to hit free agency with a lot of earning power. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the top guarantees for pre-arb extensions are for Fernando Tatis Jr., Bobby Witt Jr. and Julio Rodríguez. Tatis got $340MM but on a 14-year deal that essentially bought out his entire career. Witt got a guarantee of $288.8MM on an 11-year pact but he seems likely to opt out after seven years with with $148.8MM banked. Rodríguez got a $210MM guarantee over 12 years but with a complicated club/player option structure that could see him depart after seven seasons.

Merrill’s guarantee comes in a bit below that tier of players but on a shorter deal. The final guaranteed year of this pact will be his age-31 season, meaning he will still have a chance to secure another notable guarantee in the future via free agency. The option could keep him in San Diego another year but he also has a decent shot at converting it to a player option. As mentioned, he already finished ninth in MVP voting in his rookie season, so getting into the top five isn’t far-fetched. He also has a decent shot of pushing up his salary earnings via those escalators.

For the Padres, they have had a budget crunch in recent years but they love their guys. Over the past five years, this is the sixth extension worth at least $80MM that they have put on the books, the others having gone to Tatis, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Jake Cronenworth.

More to come…