NCAA Men’s Final Four Preview: Which top seed will survive?
All four No. 1 seeds will battle it out for the national championship at the Final Four on Saturday and Monday at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Good work this year, NCAA selection committee.
The oft-criticized crew clearly got it right in terms of seeding for the 2025 men’s basketball championship.
All four No. 1 seeds will battle it out for the national championship at the Final Four on Saturday and Monday at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Auburn, Florida, Duke and Houston have lived up to expectations. The lack of upsets has reduced some of the usual drama in March Madness, but perhaps we’re in for an epic finish.
The four remaining teams all are ranked in the top 10 in the famous KenPom rankings since the ratings were established in 1996-97.
Here’s a look at Saturday’s semifinal matchups.
FLORIDA (34-4) VS. AUBURN (32-5), 6:09 p.m. ET / 3:09 p.m. PT
ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR
Florida
Finished second in Southeastern Conference in regular season
Beat Tennessee 86-77 in SEC tournament final
Beat No. 16 Norfolk State 95-69 in first round of NCAA tournament
Beat No. 8 UConn 77-75 in second round
Beat No. 4 Maryland 87-71 in Sweet 16
Beat No. 3 Texas Tech 84-74 in Elite Eight
Auburn
Finished first in SEC in regular season
Lost 70-65 to Tennessee in SEC tournament semifinals
Beat No. 16 Alabama State 83-63 in first round of NCAA tournament
Beat No. 9 Creighton 82-70 in second round
Beat No. 5 Michigan 78-65 in Sweet 16
Beat No. 2 Michigan State 70-64 in Elite Eight
THE STARS
Johni Broome (Auburn), Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida)
Both of these players have taken advantage of the ever-growing popularity of the NCAA transfer portal, shining at big programs after starting well off the national radar.
The six-foot-10 Broome is in his third year at Auburn after playing two years at Morehead State. His coach Bruce Pearl said Broome could be “the most impactful transfer in college basketball history.”
It’s hard to argue. He’s averaging 18.7 points and 10.9 rebounds. In the NCAA tournament, Broome has had double-digit rebounds in all four games and broke out for 22 points against Michigan and 25 versus Michigan State, overcoming an injury scare in the latter game when he hobbled off the court.
The six-foot-three Clayton Jr. is the straw that stirs the drink for Florida. The point guard is in his second year with the Gators after playing two years for Rick Pitino at Iona.
The Florida-born Clayton Jr. is coming in hot after scoring 30 points versus Texas Tech.
THE COACHES
Bruce Pearl (Auburn), Todd Golden (Florida)
The 65-year-old Pearl is taking the Tigers to the Final Four for the second time after making it in 2019. After a controversial ending at Tennessee pushed him out of coaching for three years, Pearl resurfaced with Auburn in 2014 and has become the school’s all-time wins leader.
The 39-year-old Golden got his power-conference shot in 2022 when Florida hired him out of San Francisco after he guided the latter school to its first NCAA appearance since 1998. The Gators are in the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row under the Phoenix native.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
The Gators won back-to-back titles in 2006-07 with Joakim Noah leading the way. This is their first Final Four appearance since 2014.
Auburn has never won the national title, with the 2019 Final Four run the school’s lone appearance on the big stage.
SUPPORTING CASTS
Florida guard Alijah Martin is making his second Final Four appearance in three years after playing a major role in Florida Atlantic’s stunning run in 2023. Alex Condon is the team’s top big man The Gators are one of the best defensive teams in the country, relying on their length to give opponents problems.
Chad Baker-Mazara, a six-foot-seven guard, was a third-team all-SEC player for Auburn, but injuries have seemingly limited his effectiveness in the NCAA tournament. Five players averaged double figures in scoring for Auburn this season.
SEC DOMINANCE
After setting a record by having 14 teams in the NCAA tournament, the SEC sees its two best teams square off in a semifinal.
Visiting Florida beat Auburn 90-81 in SEC play in early February. Clayton Jr. had 19 points, nine assists and six rebounds.
HOUSTON (34-4) VS. DUKE (35-3), 8:49 p.m. ET / 5:49 p.m. PT
ROAD TO THE FINAL FOUR
Houston
Finished first in Big 12 in regular season
Beat Arizona 72-64 in Big 12 tournament final
Beat No. 16 SIUE 78-40 in first round of NCAA tournament
Beat No. 8 Gonzaga 81-76 in second round
Beat No. 4 Purdue 62-60 in Sweet 16
Beat No. 2 Tennessee 69-50 in Elite Eight
Duke
Finished first in ACC in regular season
Beat Louisville 73-62 in ACC tournament final
Beat No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s 93-49 in first round of NCAA tournament
Beat No. 9 Baylor 89-66 in second round
Beat No. 4 Arizona 100-93 in Sweet 16
Beat No. 2 Alabama 85-65 in Elite Eight
THE STARS
Cooper Flagg (Duke), L.J. Cryer (Houston)
Flagg has dominated in his freshman season at Duke. The Maine man has demonstrated why several NBA teams seem to be in full-on-tank mode to try to earn the right to pick Flagg first overall in this year’s NBA Draft. The six-foot-nine forward scored a combined 46 points in last week’s regional and has been battling Broome all season in the race for best player in the country.
The six-foot-one Cryer played a minor role in Baylor’s national championship in 2021 and now is back in the Final Four as the top scorer for Houston in his second year with the Cougars. The New Orleans native had 17 points, seven rebounds and four assists in the win over Tennessee.
THE COACHES
Jon Scheyer (Duke), Kelvin Sampson (Houston)
The 37-year-old Scheyer played for legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski at Duke and then was added to his coaching staff in 2013 before being promoted to the top job following Coach K’s retirement in 2022. Scheyer’s teams have improved every year (second round in 2022-23, Elite Eight in 2023-24, Final Four this year).
The 69-year-old Sampson has gone to the Sweet 16 or further the past six seasons with Houston. The Cougars reached the Final Four in 2021. After a rules violation scandal at Indiana forced Sampson out of the college game in 2008 and sent him to the NBA assistant coaching ranks, Sampson got another NCAA shot with Houston in 2014 and has made the most of it. Internationally, Sampson was an assistant coach under Jay Triano for Team Canada in 2012. Sampson’s teams are known for playing good defence, but this year’s team has improved to fourth from 132nd in three-point percentage.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Duke is one of the most storied programs in the country. The Blue Devils have won five national titles, most recently in 2015 with Jahlil Okafor leading the charge.
The Cougars have not won an NCAA title, finishing runner-up in 1983 and ’84 with Hakeem Olajuwon as the marquee player. Sampson’s run to the Final Four in 2021 was Houston’s first since that ’84 title loss.
SUPPORTING CASTS
Flagg isn’t the only freshman doing big things at Duke. Seven-foot-two centre Khaman Maluach and six-foot-seven guard Kon Knueppel also are expected lottery picks this year. Knueppel combined for 41 points in the last two games. Junior guard Tyrese Proctor also can be a sparkplug for the Blue Devils.
No Canadians are in the Final Four, but one of the Cougars’ best players has ties to the country. Houston guard Emanuel Sharp, the team’s second-leading scorer, is the son of former University of Toronto women’s team star and Hamilton native Justine (Ellison) Sharp and former pro men’s player Derrick Sharp. Emanuel’s parents met when both were playing pro ball in Israel and the family eventually moved to Florida.
HOME-STATE EDGE
Houston should have the majority of fans on its side. The campus is just over a three-hour drive away from the Alamodome. That’s a nice change from the Sweet 16 when Houston had to face Purdue in the latter team’s home state of Indiana.
REMATCH?
Duke beat top-seeded Houston 54-51 in last year’s Sweet 16, but the rosters are completely different. The Blue Devils have the three big freshmen, while the Cougars no longer have star Jamal Shead, now a Toronto Raptor.
“We’re not going to make it about that,” Cryer said, per the Houston Chronicle. “This is a new team. We have our own story to write. Hopefully we get to continue writing it.”
