NBA Play-In Preview: Can Mavericks make history in last push for final spots?

After being given teasers to start, we will finally get a taste of true March Madness-style basketball at the NBA level in the Play-In Tournament’s final phase.  

Win and you’re in, lose and you go home. 

First, the Golden State Warriors and Orlando Magic triumphed in the seven-seed games, advancing to face the Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics, respectively. Next, the Sacramento Kings and Chicago Bulls were pummeled in the 9-10 games, setting up Friday’s finale.  

The stakes of these do-or-die eight-seed affairs are the final two playoff spots — matchups against the fearsome No. 1 seeds from each conference.  

In the East, the Play-In’s favourite son, the Atlanta Hawks, will tip off against the Miami Heat for a shot at upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Heading to the West, the Memphis Grizzlies will take on the Dallas Mavericks for a chance to play David to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Goliath. The Mavericks have the unique opportunity to become the first-ever No. 10 seed to advance to the NBA Playoffs.

Here’s what you need to know about the two matchups that will determine the eighth seed in each conference.

Eastern Conference: (8) Atlanta Hawks vs. (9) Miami Heat, 7 p.m. ET

Season Series: Tied 2-2 
Dec. 28: Hawks 120, Heat 110 
Feb. 24: Hawks 98, Heat 86 
Feb. 26: Heat 131, Hawks 109 
March 27: Heat 122, Hawks 112 

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Pulse on Hawks 

The Hawks feel right at home in the Play-In, participating for the fourth year in a row — an NBA high — after advancing to the playoffs in two of their previous three attempts. The one time they didn’t, they leapfrogged to the top of the draft in the lottery and snagged Zaccharie Risacher first overall. The Play-In has treated Atlanta well.

By analytics standards, the Hawks have a modern shot diet, taking a high frequency of attempts both at the rim and in the corners. However, the percentage of their points that come in the paint has declined with injuries to Jalen Johnson and Clint Capela.

Capela is the lob threat that NBA assist leader Trae Young’s floater-lob package is built around, and his absence has fundamentally changed the Hawks’ offence. They went from third in paint scoring prior to Capela’s injury to 16^th in the time after. As a result, Young’s ability to touch the paint on drives has been used more often to draw defenders and kick out to perimeter shooters rather than put pressure on the rim. The Hawks are taking nearly three more three-point attempts per game since Capela went down, jumping from 15^th in the league before the injury to eighth in the big man’s absence.

On the other side of the floor, the Hawks grade out slightly below average both as a transition defence and in the half-court. Atlanta should be able to play most of this game with a set defence, as they are above average at limiting opponent’s transition opportunities, and the Heat play a sluggish brand of offence that results in half court possessions over 80 per cent of the time (fourth-most in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass). That should give Dyson Daniels, who led the league this season with 3.0 steals per game, plenty of opportunity to blow up Miami’s actions and wreak havoc at the point of attack.

Pulse on Heat 

The Heat managed to blow out the Bulls in the 9-10 game thanks to a huge performance from Tyler Herro. The first-time all-star poured in a game-high 38 points, including 23 in the first half on eight-of-eight shooting.  

Behind Herro, the Heat grade out roughly league average or below in most areas, except for their strong half-court defence. Anchored by the all-defensive presence of Bam Adebayo, the additions of rookie Kel’el Ware, Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell have helped bolster Miami’s aggressive, help-oriented scheme. 

Opponents take fewer shots at the rim with Ware on the floor (per Cleaning the Glass), Wiggins’ length and physicality on the wing have helped fill the void left by Jimmy Butler, and Mitchell is one of the premier on-ball defenders in the game.  

The key to the Heat advancing lies in limiting the Hawks’ fast-break opportunities. They get out and run more than any other team in the NBA, and Miami’s transition defence ranks in the bottom 10. This should be achievable, as the Heat are in the top 10 in both limiting opponents’ transition frequency and turnover rate.

X-Factor: Davion Mitchell 

It made sense when Davion “Off-Night” Mitchell was traded to Miami at the deadline. Forget that he was due to be paid an $8.7-million qualifying offer as a restricted free agent by the Toronto Raptors, he is the perfect fit for Heat culture.

Mitchell’s hellacious on-ball defence has often caused opposing stars to have “off-nights,” a skill frequently on display this season. This included a back-to-back against Atlanta in January where Mitchell first held Young to only 18 points on 7-of-19 shooting and followed it up by limiting the all-star guard to only four assists to go along with 11 turnovers. This effort ended Young’s streak of 202 consecutive games with five or more assists, the third longest in NBA history.  

Young is the engine of Atlanta’s offence. If Mitchell can lock him up again, the Hawks’ good fortune in the Play-In may come to an end.  

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Western Conference: (8) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (10) Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 p.m. ET

Season Series: Grizzlies lead 3-1

Dec. 3: Mavericks 123, Grizzlies 116 
Jan. 6: Grizzlies 119, Mavericks 104 
Mar. 7: Grizzlies 122, Mavericks 111 
April 13: Grizzlies 132, Mavericks 97 

Pulse on Grizzlies 

Going into this all-or-nothing game, the biggest question for the Grizzlies is the condition of Ja Morant. The star guard landed on Buddy Hield’s foot and turned his right ankle while attempting a leaning floater in the third quarter of Tuesday’s 7-8 game against the Warriors.

Morant showed guts, returning to the game despite visible discomfort and lack of mobility, and has been deemed a game-time decision against the Mavericks. The former all-star leads the Grizzlies in both points (23.2) and assists (7.3) this season and is third with a plus-2.6 on/off differential.

Desmond Bane already acts as the initiator in some of the Grizzlies’ actions and was successful when further extended into that role on Tuesday against the Warriors. He scored a team-high 30 points, including 11 points and 3-of-5 shooting from distance in the final 14 minutes after Morant went down. Both Bane and the rangy and versatile Jaren Jackson Jr. will need to step up if Morant is unable to go. 

Memphis has gone 4-6 since firing Taylor Jenkins with nine games remaining in the regular season and replacing him with former EuroCup champion coach Tuomas Iisalo. The Finnish bench boss’s philosophy emphasizes pace, a traditional point guard-centric offence and strong offensive rebounding. The Grizzlies have excelled at running the break and crashing the glass this year and will need to push their aggression to the max to make up for their hobbled or potentially absent lead guard.

Pulse on Mavericks 

If there was ever a time for a No. 10 seed to make it out of the Play-In, it’s now.  

The Grizzlies are vulnerable with their lead ball handler hurt, an inexperienced coach at the helm, and Zach Edey leaving tactical weaknesses to exploit. And Anthony Davis has finally turned the corner for the Mavericks, averaging 24.8 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 3.2 blocks over his last five games. 

Kyrie Irving’s absence is the biggest hurdle for this team, as their live-dribble creation is extremely limited without the eccentric guard. Spencer Dinwiddie had taken on some of this role but shot 3-of-22 in the Mavericks’ final three games of the season and played only two garbage-time minutes against the Kings on Wednesday. For now, it appears to be point guard by committee, with Naji Marshall, Dante Exum, (unqualified) G League leading scorer Brandon Williams, and even Davis splitting the on-ball reps. 

The Mavericks have been closer to a Three Stooges act than a professional basketball franchise ever since the infamous Luka Doncic trade in February, with fans taking the brunt of the painful jokes. An improbable Play-In run and a first-round playoff series would be a small step toward ameliorating the dismal situation in Dallas.

After all, Nico Harrison traded for Davis with the playoffs in mind. Defence might not win championships for the Mavericks this season, but it could win the Play-In.  

X-Factor: Zach Edey  

In the 7-8 game against the Warriors, Zach Edey was a problem on defence. And not in a good way.

The primary concern about the Toronto-born big going into last year’s draft was his lack of mobility and how opponents would exploit it on a larger floor at the NBA level. 

Golden State provided a perfect example of that Tuesday, running five-out sets with Quinten Post and Draymond Green, either drawing Edey to the perimeter to open up the paint or cashing the open three-point shots when he stayed put. 

While the Mavericks don’t necessarily have the same flexibility as the Warriors when it comes to small-ball lineups and stretch bigs, playing Davis at the five could still cause similar problems for Edey.  

Also, Dereck Lively II may not be a shooting threat, but his ability to space the floor vertically — constantly threatening on rolls to the rim with his leaping ability — could prevent Edey from better positioning himself as a help defender on drivers and cutters.

If the Grizzlies are going to avoid the upset and prevent a No. 10 seed from making the playoffs for the first time, they will need to come up with a counter to the seven-foot-four centre’s shortcomings. 

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