NBA Play-In Preview: Can any No. 9 or 10 seeds make real noise?

While the NBA playoffs are still a couple of days away, knockout-style basketball is already upon us thanks to the Play-In tournament.

Tuesday’s seven-eight seed matchups gave us some win-and-you’re-in hoops, which led to the Magic and Warriors punching their tickets to Round 1 of the true post-season.

It also left the Hawks and Grizzlies to now take on whoever comes out of the 9-10 games on Wednesday, all for the ultimate prize of earning the No. 8 seed and taking the powerhouse Cavaliers or Thunder.

Before any of that, however, the 9-10 games are on the docket. The lower end of the mini-tournament bracket will feature several Play-In regulars, as it’ll be the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference and the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks out West.

And although none of those squads would be described as world beaters, each has put together positive stints, and some potential Play-In upsets would be a welcomed intrigue.

Since the inception of the mini-tournament in 2020-21, only three No. 9 seeds have made it into the playoffs, and it hasn’t happened again since 2022. All the while, there’s yet to be a team to advance out of the Play-In from the 10th spot.

Could this be the year one of the lower-seeded teams in the bracket makes some real noise? We won’t know for sure until the games get underway. In the meantime, here’s what you need to know heading into both 9-10 matchups on Wednesday night.

Eastern Conference: (9) Chicago Bulls vs. (10) Miami Heat @ 7:30 p.m. ET

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Season Series: Bulls lead 3-0

Feb. 4: Bulls 133, Heat 124
March 9: Bulls 114, Heat 109
April 8: Bulls 119, Heat 111

Pulse on Bulls

Chicago is like a moth to a flame when it comes to the Play-In. Not even their attempt to hit the reset button — with the off-season sending away of Alex Caruso or trade-deadline subtraction of Zach LaVine — could keep the Bulls away from a third-straight Play-In appearance.

However, they do so following the best stretch of their campaign. Chicago has the seventh-best record since the start of March (15-7) and is in the midst of a three-game win streak heading into the Play-In.

In that same span, the Bulls have boasted the league’s 10th-best net rating (plus-4.4) overall and second-best in the clutch. The gameplan has been simple: play fast — second in the NBA for pace on the season, first since March — and try to win the math battle, ranking third in three-point makes this year (15.4).

Led by the dynamic duo of Josh Giddey and Coby White, the Bulls are young, the Bulls are fun, and dare I say, the Bulls could even be back.

Pulse on Heat

There may not be a more fitting “Heat Culture” moment than if Miami wins the 9-10 game and then goes on to steal the eighth seed despite post-Jimmy Butler struggles (12-21 since). But before we get ahead of ourselves, the Heat needs to find a way past a Chicago team that swept them this regular season.

It does help the Heat’s case that, although they haven’t been as solid as the Bulls of late, they have been on a bit of a heater as well.

Miami is 8-4 over its last 12 games, a stretch that started with a six-game winning streak. In that same span, the Heat have posted the NBA’s best net rating (plus-14), ranking first on offence and third on defence (albeit against mostly sub-.500 competition).

Much of that success has been courtesy of their determination to muck things up. If the Bulls play like a swift and smooth current, the Heat prefer to embody bumper-to-bumper traffic.

Miami ranks 27th for pace this season and 25th in transition frequency, with over 80 per cent of their offensive plays coming in the half court (fourth-most in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass). They play at their tempo and aim to force others to match their speed with junky defence. And it’s been working lately. Teams have shot just 45.7 per cent (second-lowest) against the Heat through their last 12 games.

All the while, Miami still brings the two most talented players to Wednesday’s matchup in Bam Adebayo (18.1 points, 9.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.3 steals) and Tyler Herro (23.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists). Although the Bulls present as the more in-form team, we all know stars are the ultimate swing factor in the NBA, and the Heat have two.

X-Factor: Josh Giddey, Bulls

When Chicago acquired the Aussie guard from the Thunder in exchange for Caruso, it was with the intention that he’d be one of their future leaders. Instead, Giddey has quickly turned into the team’s floor-raiser in the present.

He’s captained the Bulls’ run-and-gun style alongside White, who’s been the second-most productive transition scorer this year, and will be relied upon heavily against a Heat team he’s enjoyed playing. Giddey averaged 26.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 10.0 assists while shooting 58.3 per cent from the field in three games against Miami this season.

It’s unclear if that version of the 22-year-old will re-appear on Wednesday, however, as he’s been battling a nagging wrist injury. While Giddey did say there’s “no way” he’d miss the win-or-go-home game, can he keep up his improved efficiency and play with a less-than-100 per cent shooting hand?

Western Conference: (9) Sacramento Kings vs. (10) Dallas Mavericks @ 10 p.m. ET on Sportsnet ONE or Sportsnet+

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Season Series: Kings lead 3-0

Dec. 30: Kings 110, Mavericks 100
Feb. 10: Kings 129, Mavericks 128 (OT)
March 3: Kings 122, Mavericks 98

Pulse on Kings

The Kings have had quite the turbulent season. From firing Mike Brown (two years after winning Coach of the Year) midway through the season to trading away franchise guard De’Aaron Fox.

Under the guidance of interim head coach Doug Christie, Sacramento found stretches of success but failed to capture any sort of consistency.

For what it’s worth, Sacramento has somewhat returned to an offence-first identity that helped it snap a 16-year playoff drought two years ago. Since the trade deadline, the Kings rank 10th on offence, seventh in field goal percentage (48.6) and sixth in three-point percentage (37.7). Much of which has been thanks to the anchoring of Domantas Sabonis. The Lithuanian big man averaged 19.1 points this season to go with 13.9 rebounds (first in the NBA), while shooting 41.7 per cent from deep, the latter two of which were career-high marks.

But ultimately, and unsurprisingly, pivoting their team to operate around the duo of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine — who’ve already competed in four Play-In games together while in Chicago — along with Sabonis (akin to Bulls’ Nikola Vucevic) has led the Kings to that same spot. Hopefully, the experience helps.

Pulse on Mavericks

If you thought any of the NBA’s other 29 teams had tumultuous seasons, the Mavericks heard that thought and said “hold my beer.”

Even after months, both the city of Dallas and the larger NBA audience remain befuddled by the stunning trade of Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers. But it happened, and to the players’ credit, they’ve battled. Even as they faced the aftermath of losing a star teammate and battling a laundry list of injuries.

And for what it’s worth, the Mavericks still have an ultimate ace up their sleeve in Anthony Davis. While injury derailed the start of his career in Dallas — following an emphatic debut — since he’s returned from an 18-game absence, he’s back in top form. Through his last four appearances, the 10-time all-star averaged 24.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.3 blocks. Davis enters Wednesday’s win-or-go-home matchup on the heels of an especially impressive performance against the Toronto Raptors in which he put up 29 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists and seven blocks.

And although Dallas offers less top-end talent than Sacramento, it’s arguably the deeper squad. Since the trade deadline, Dallas ranks third in bench minutes and field goal percentage (49.0) while sitting sixth in second-unit points (42.2).

It’s hard to justify this season as anything but a trainwreck for the Mavericks, considering they’re only a year removed from a Finals appearance. But maybe a Play-In win could provide the tiniest flicker of hope the fanbase so desperately needs.

X-Factor: Jonas Valanciunas, Kings

You’ve heard of Mr. October, but what about Mr. Play-In? The Kings’ other Lithuanian big man, the one they acquired from the Wizards at the trade deadline, is the most “accomplished” player in the history of the mini-tournament, as he’s been part of it every year since its inception.

His eight games, 123 points and 87 rebounds are all the most by a player in the history of the Play-In.

In all seriousness, that equates to 15.4 points and 10.9 rebounds on average, which is nothing to scoff at. And experience does have some say in these types of games.

The veteran centre has also been a steady presence off the bench for the Kings, leading the team in second-unit scoring (8.7 points) through his 32 games. While we presumably won’t see much of Valanciunas against Davis or Dereck Lively II, if either gets a rest, Sacramento’s backup big would match up well against someone like Daniel Gafford.

And while none of his previous or incoming stats in the Play-In count toward regular-season or post-season records, they’ll still hold a place in our hearts. So, keep climbing that non-existent ladder, Mr. Play-In.

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