Is Verstappen now the 2025 F1 title favourite? Our verdict

McLaren appeared to have the fastest Formula 1 car at the Japanese Grand Prix but it was defending champion Max Verstappen who walked away with victory on Sunday.

That partnered with his excellent prior 2025 damage limitation means Verstappen sits just one point adrift of points leader Lando Norris in the drivers' championship.

So is he the title favourite? Is he simply in the title hunt? Or is he not in realistic contention with a slower car?

Our team have their say:

Don't get too carried away with this

Ben Anderson

There is something hilariously paradoxical about an F1 race in which the top three finishers are covered by less than three seconds and yet we cannot declare it in any way an exciting race to watch!

What we did see was Verstappen making the crucial difference around a track where confidence is king, and where the sort of insane feel and control he has allows him to run lower downforce than rivals and somehow not lose pace or tyre life.

And yet, although he deserves all the credit and more for one of the best drives you'll ever see at Suzuka, there were still some crucial things that happened that made his life a bit easier than it otherwise might have been.

Firstly, as great as that Saturday pole lap undoubtedly was, had Norris not been so conservative at the final chicane he would have started on pole in the best car, and then this is likely a totally different race - one in which Norris wins comfortably and extends his points lead rather than watches it shrink.

Secondly, and crucially, a cooler and much damper track than earlier in the weekend basically completely neutralised the usual power of new tyres on the outlap after a pitstop. This lack of 'undercut' power completely contained McLaren strategically and meant it couldn’t make full use of Oscar Piastri’s earlier pitstop to put extra pressure on Red Bull.

Apart from that slightly awkward moment at the pit exit, Red Bull and Verstappen exerted a grip on this race that even an inherently faster car couldn't overcome in a one-stopper like this was. And because of the way the tyres behaved here, McLaren's advantage at the end of the stints wasn't as powerful as it usually is either.

This was undoubtedly a brilliant, virtuoso performance from Verstappen, but given the general acceptance of an inherent pace advantage in the McLaren, it’s difficult to extrapolate from these particular circumstances that Verstappen is suddenly F1’s new title favourite - unless the car improves relative to the McLaren.

Verstappen is the title favourite

Scott Mitchell-Malm

Verstappen is my pick for the world championship on the evidence of the first three races, even though I think he will rarely have the fastest car and I don't think he did this weekend despite winning from pole. 

He continues to excel in whatever the car is capable of. Podium? Max is on it. Decent points? Max gets them. An unlikely pole and win? Sprinkle the magic and collect the prizes. 

Verstappen's keeping himself in the mix brilliantly. More than that - right now he's a full-on threat. And if things go the way Red Bull expects, and the flexi-wing clampdown swings the battle towards the RB21 from race nine in Spain onwards, Verstappen will go from 'outsider who is making the difference himself' to nailed-on favourite. 

In the hunt, but not yet the favourite

Edd Straw

The early stages of Verstappen's season have been a classic case of a great driver making a car that isn't quite there into a contender. Now, the Red Bull RB21 isn't terrible, but it is a tricky car to get the best out of and there's no doubt that the McLaren is the stronger car. 

This weekend hinged on Verstappen's qualifying virtuosity. He can be depended on to deliver consistently outstanding performances as the season progresses, but to become title favourite will require Red Bull to improve the car. 

He's proved beyond any doubt that he should be considered a title threat. On current trend, it's set to be one of those seasons where the best driver in not the best car is in the hunt.

Days like Saturday, when the McLaren drivers didn't get the most out of the machinery but Verstappen did, are what facilitates that.

Flat-out, driver's circuit suited Verstappen

Gary Anderson

It’s still far too early to know who can keep up the development on the 2025 car and still maximise the effort on the new-for-2026 package, which will require a dividing of resources fairly soon.

One thing we can say is that Suzuka is a driver's circuit and in qualifying and the race, Max Verstappen showed he is without a doubt one of the best ever.

Compared to his team-mate - who I know was in his first race with Red Bull - he was in a different league.

With any driver circuit comes the problem that they are not necessarily spectator circuits, so yes, it was a boring race but the end result reflected the qualifying order more or less all the way through the top 10.

This just proves that a fast car in qualifying is required - to add to that, for the race the tyres were just too good so no room for any gambles.

Red Bull still has work to do for other circuits where tyres are more marginal and the car is just that bit more important. That's where McLaren’s drivers can reap the rewards of a car that looks after its tyres just that bit better.

Drivers' championship-wise it's still in the unknown. Constructors' championship-wise McLaren has the best driver package to score big points every weekend as long as it doesn't get into any in-house fighting.

Worrying signs of a McLaren repeat 

Josh Suttill

Red Bull's early-season advantage was the bedrock of Max Verstappen's 2024 title victory - but it was made almost comfortable by Verstappen outperforming the McLarens despite having a slower car later in the year. 

Last year the logic of 'well Verstappen can take more risks, it's McLaren who has to take them to cut the gap' was used to partly justify why McLaren was making more mistakes and not cutting into Verstappen's points lead. 

The totals have been reset to zero and yet a similar pattern is emerging. McLaren had a faster car at Suzuka but its drivers opened the door for an unlikely Verstappen pole on Saturday.

Those qualifying underperformances somewhat doomed the race - and Norris driving onto the grass at the only moment in the race he was on Verstappen's tail - but you also have to question why McLaren didn't use its advantage of having two cars up front to pincer Verstappen.

Why not run one of the drivers longer, use the car advantage and/or the resulting better tyre life to at least pressure Verstappen, and even swap the cars if you need to?

Red Bull isn't bulletproof. The slow pitstop almost cost Verstappen the win - but, as a whole, Verstappen and Red Bull are still just too good for McLaren and its drivers that this victory won't be a one-off.

Is Verstappen the favourite? Not yet, but this really could be the foundation for Verstappen's most unlikely title victory yet.