Hit or miss? A look at who exceeded expectations and who fell short

Wasn’t it just October?

Now, somehow, it’s already mid-April and the 2024–25 NHL regular season is about to slip into the rearview mirror. Just 13 games remain between Wednesday and Thursday before 16 teams head into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and the other 16 depart for the off-season.

With a handful of teams already having played Game 82 and the rest sitting at 80 or 81 — and with the short window before the playoffs begin Saturday — it’s time to reflect on a season that’s just about concluded.

Here, we’re taking a look at some of the surprises from the past seven months — the teams and players who exceeded expectations and those who, not to kick anyone while they’re down, fell short. 

In no particular order, let’s dive into this list of 10 breakthrough performances and unexpected disappointments that had a hand in shaping this season. 

Hit: Ovechkin breaks goals record

We all knew Alex Ovechkin would eventually break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record — but few expected it to happen this season. Just look back at our Sportsnet NHL Insider predictions for the 2024-25 season from October: 17 of 19 insiders didn’t think he’d hit the 42 goals needed to reach 895 and surpass Gretzky. At 39 years old, Ovechkin had tallied 15 goals by Nov. 18 and was on pace to make history — until he broke his left fibula that same day. After missing more than a month, he returned on Dec. 28 and defied Father Time and the doubters, scoring four goals in his first five games back, then maintaining a blistering pace to tie Gretzky’s mark on April 4 and break it one game later. Ovechkin’s pace of 0.67 goals per game this season is his best mark since 2019-20.

Miss: Big swings fall flat for Predators

After finishing the 2023–24 season in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference, the Nashville Predators bowed out in the opening round of the playoffs, losing in six games to the Vancouver Canucks. Looking to bolster their roster and take another run at the playoffs, they made three significant free-agent signings in the summer: Steven Stamkos (four years, $32 million), Jonathan Marchessault (five years, $27.5 million) and Brady Skjei (seven years, $49 million). However, all three had disappointing debut seasons, one issue among many the team has faced. Stamkos is a team-worst minus-36 and has dropped from 81 points last season to 52. Marchessault has 54 points after posting 69 and Skjei has 33 points after recording 47. During a four-game losing streak in March, head coach Andrew Brunette criticized Nashville’s efforts while acknowledging how mentally draining the stretch had been for veteran players specifically. The Predators are set to finish 30th overall.

Hit: Hutson leads rookie scoring

There was undoubtedly plenty of hype around rookie defenceman Lane Hutson heading into his maiden NHL season — but how many foresaw him sitting atop the rookie scoring leaderboard and emerging as the frontrunner for the Calder Trophy in a class that includes Macklin Celebrini, Dustin Wolf, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith, Cutter Gauthier and Logan Stankoven? He leads all rookies with 65 points, including 59 assists, and also paces the class in both power-play points (26) and power-play assists (25). His 65th point pushed him past former Canadien and Hall of Famer Chris Chelios for the most points by a rookie defenceman in franchise history — and he also passed Chelios for the most assists by a rookie defenceman. Montreal has every reason to be excited about what the future holds for the former Boston University product, who could be helping them in the playoffs as early as this season.

Miss: Pettersson’s drama-filled season

In March 2024, Elias Pettersson signed an eight-year, $92.8-million contract extension to become the highest-paid Canuck in franchise history — a deal earned after a 102-point campaign followed by an 89-point season. He didn’t quite meet expectations during Vancouver’s playoff run that spring, putting up just six points in 13 games. But considering it was his first real post-season experience and he’d been dealing with tendinitis in his knee, concern was minimal at the time. But fast-forward one season into his long-term deal, and Pettersson fell well short of the expectations that come with being a star forward making $11.6 million annually — the fifth-highest salary in the league. His year was cut short by injuries, including one that sidelined him for Vancouver’s final 12 games, and he finished with just 45 points in 64 appearances. To make matters worse, his on-ice struggles were amplified by the off-ice drama with teammate J.T. Miller, who was eventually traded to the New York Rangers.

Hit: Incredible turnaround by Blues

The St. Louis Blues lost 13 of their first 22 games — but that alone wasn’t what led to first-time NHL head coach Drew Bannister’s firing on Nov. 24, less than a year into the job. The real catalyst came five days earlier, when the Boston Bruins dismissed Jim Montgomery — a coach Blues president and GM Doug Armstrong clearly didn’t want to miss out on the chance to hire. With Montgomery now at the helm, the Blues were 25-26-5 heading into the 4 Nations Face-Off break and had dropped six of their last eight, sitting eight points back of the Canucks for the second wild-card spot in the West with single-digit playoff odds. Then came the turnaround. Since the break, St. Louis has gone 19-4-2, a stretch that included a franchise-record 12-game win streak from March 15 to April 5. Similar to their Stanley Cup season in 2018-19, this impressive run and the coaching change won them what many would have described as an unlikely playoff spot.

Miss: Major drop-off for Rangers

Referencing back to our insider predictions from the start of the season, almost half picked the Rangers to win the Metropolitan Division, with a handful even pegging them as potential Stanley Cup finalists. And that wasn’t exactly a bold take — New York was coming off a Presidents’ Trophy-winning season in 2023–24, setting franchise records with 55 wins and 114 points, then advancing to the Eastern Conference Final, where they fell to the eventual Cup-champion Florida Panthers. They carried that momentum into the early part of this season, starting 12-4-1 over their first 17 games. But things quickly unravelled, as the Rangers dropped 15 of their next 19. They struggled to recover and sank to the bottom half of the standings, being officially eliminated from playoff contention on April 12.

Hit: Wolf’s smooth transition to starter

After bouncing between the Calgary Flames and their AHL affiliate last season to cover for injuries to Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar, Dustin Wolf posted a 7-7-1 record with a 3.16 goals-against average and a .893 save percentage over 17 appearances (15 starts). But with Markstrom traded to the New Jersey Devils in the off-season, a full-time NHL spot opened up for the 23-year-old netminder to earn. Wolf began 2024–25 by splitting starts with Vladar, but eventually took over the crease thanks to his impressive play — especially key for a team with the third-fewest goals scored league-wide. With a 29-26-8 record, 2.64 GAA and .910 save percentage across 53 starts — a mark that surpassed Mike Vernon’s franchise record for most starts by a rookie goalie — Wolf helped keep the Flames in the playoff mix until the very end, exceeding expectations placed on both the team and its goaltending tandem.

Miss: Swayman’s career-worst stats

With an eight-year, $66-million contract came higher expectations for Jeremy Swayman — especially after it was signed following a public standoff that saw him miss all of training camp and the pre-season. Add in the fact that he entered this season with a clear path to take over the starting job following Linus Ullmark’s departure, and the pressure only increased. Swayman was coming off a 2023–24 campaign in which he posted strong regular-season numbers and was even better in the playoffs as the Bruins advanced to the second round. But in 2024–25, his performance took a sharp dip. He recorded a career-worst in wins — despite playing more games than ever — as well as in goals-against average (3.11) and save percentage (.892). While the Bruins have taken a collective step back, Swayman’s struggles have been among the most glaring.

Hit: Playoff drought ends for Senators

Seven consecutive seasons without any post-season action couldn’t have been easy to endure, but there’s finally light at the end of the tunnel for the Ottawa Senators. For the first time since 2017, they’re heading back to the playoffs — and are set for a first-round “Battle of Ontario” matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs. It marks a sharp rise from where they were a year ago, when they finished second-last in the Atlantic Division. At the halfway point of this season, Ottawa sat at 20-18-3 — already eight points ahead of where they stood at that stage in 2023–24. Now, as the regular season comes to a close, they’re set to finish with nearly 20 more points than the previous campaign. One of the club’s most glaring weaknesses last season was in goal, and acquiring Linus Ullmark in the off-season went a long way toward solidifying that position. The addition of head coach Travis Green also paid dividends, as he established a more structured and accountable system of play.

Miss: Blackhawks stuck in basement

Another year, another early end to the season for the Chicago Blackhawks, who’ve now missed the playoffs five straight times — a wholly unsurprising result given their ongoing rebuild. And they haven’t just been missing by a bit; they’ve been missing by a lot. After finishing 31st in the league with 52 points last season, they landed in the same spot this year with 61 points. A major leap wasn’t necessarily expected this time around, but there was hope — both internally and externally — that the group would at least show some signs of progress. Which is why the season felt all the more disappointing in just how rough it ended up being. Former Blackhawk Seth Jones, who was traded to the Florida Panthers ahead of the deadline, wasn’t out of line when he said in February that Chicago hadn’t made any improvements all season.

Bonus Hit: 4 Nations Face-Off success

Replacing the All-Star Game we’ve grown accustomed to and doubling as a preview of the NHL’s return to the Olympics next winter, the buy-in from all four countries involved in the one-week 4 Nations Face-Off exceeded expectations. And then there was the element that no one could’ve predicted: rising political tensions between the U.S. and Canada adding another layer to an already heated rivalry. The championship game drew 16.1 million viewers across North America, including 9.3 million in the U.S. and 6.3 million in Canada, making it the second-most-watched hockey game of the past decade. The tournament’s unforeseen success has prompted commissioner Gary Bettman to say it has “raised the bar” and has the NHL re-evaluating next year’s All-Star Game format.

More from Sportsnet

Retool or rebuild? Taking stock of the Bruins after disappointing season

Biggest breakout players of the 2024-25 NHL season