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Guerrero Jr. comments hint at big ask in talks with Blue Jays
The news that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t ask for $600 million in extension talks is hardly shocking, but it’s an interesting point of reference considering his importance to the Blue Jays. Ben Nicholson-Smith has the story.
DUNEDIN, Fla. — The news that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t ask for $600 million in extension talks is hardly shocking, as no one had reported his demands were quite that high, but it’s nonetheless an interesting point of reference considering his importance to the Blue Jays.
Speaking in Spanish with ESPN’s Enrique Rojas and Ernesto Jerez this week, Guerrero Jr. said he was seeking a long-term contract like the 15-year deal Juan Soto obtained from the Mets, only at a lower average annual value than Soto, who signed for $765 million at an AAV of $51 million.
“It was the same number of years [as Juan Soto’s contract], but it didn’t reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn’t reach 600,” Guerrero Jr. said.
“I know the business. I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years … I’m looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way.”
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Industry opinion varies on how much the Soto deal matters for Guerrero Jr., but MLBPA executive director Tony Clark indicated they’re linked when asked about the subject earlier this week.
“In one fashion or another, all players are connected to all players,” Clark said. “There’s no doubt that a deal for any one particular player can be viewed by a comparable player. I haven’t been a part of the conversations that have that have been had here and don’t know how those discussions have gone, but there’s no doubt that Vlad Jr. is one of the best players in our game, and if he actually does get to free agency, I’m interested to see all the teams that are going to be interested in his services.”
As for Guerrero Jr.’s comments, they’re far from explosive, though it’s somewhat surprising to see him discuss his contract status after saying he had no intention of doing so. That’s his prerogative, of course, and while it’s an interesting talking point for fans and media this hasn’t been a major distraction at Blue Jays camp.
A global pandemic? A work stoppage? Reese McGuire using poor judgment in the parking lot of a Dollar Tree? Those are big distractions. Relatively speaking, this distraction is ordinary — one of many, many small-scale distractions that big-leaguers must tune out in the course of a long season.
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Behind the scenes at Blue Jays camp, Guerrero Jr. has been his typically jovial self both on and off the field. Still, the question of how much he asked for remains unanswered, and it’s an important variable in this discussion. It’s likely less than the $585 million David Ortiz floated and it’s clearly more than $340 million, an amount Guerrero Jr. says he rejected from the Blue Jays.
Yet that still leaves a massive range of possible offers. I made the case last month that a deal in the range of $500 million could be a win-win, and I still believe that to be true, even if there’s limited upside for the team at that point. Only 17 players in MLB history have played as often (819 games) and hit as well (137 OPS+) as Guerrero Jr. through age-25, a list including the likes of Ty Cobb, Henry Aaron, Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera.
But others view it differently with some executives on rival teams fundamentally opposed to investing so much money in any player this side of Shohei Ohtani. And even those who are open to investing that much in one player want to be sure their decision-making is grounded in reality rather than narratives or fan sentiment.
Fair enough. It is of course the job of executives to make data-driven recommendations to ownership instead of going off gut feel. In order to justify offering $500 million, the Blue Jays would have to project an aging curve something like this for Guerrero Jr.
|
Year
|
Year of deal |
Age |
Cost of 1.0 WAR |
WAR |
Value |
Cost
|
|
2026 |
1 |
27 |
10.30 |
5 |
51.50 |
37 |
|
2027 |
2 |
28 |
10.61 |
5 |
53.05 |
37 |
|
2028 |
3 |
29 |
10.93 |
4.5 |
49.17 |
37 |
|
2029 |
4 |
30 |
11.26 |
4.5 |
50.65 |
37 |
|
2030 |
5 |
31 |
11.59 |
4.5 |
52.17 |
37 |
|
2031 |
6 |
32 |
11.94 |
4 |
47.76 |
37 |
|
2032 |
7 |
33 |
12.30 |
3.5 |
43.05 |
37 |
|
2033 |
8 |
34 |
12.67 |
3 |
38.00 |
37 |
|
2034 |
9 |
35 |
13.05 |
2.5 |
32.62 |
37 |
|
2035 |
10 |
36 |
13.44 |
2 |
26.88 |
37 |
|
2036 |
11 |
37 |
13.84 |
2 |
27.68 |
37 |
|
2037 |
12 |
38 |
14.26 |
1.5 |
21.39 |
37 |
|
2038 |
13 |
39 |
14.69 |
1 |
14.69 |
37 |
|
2039 |
14 |
40 |
15.13 |
0.5 |
7.56 |
37 |
|
TOTAL |
|
|
|
43.5 |
516.16 |
518 |
This hypothetical 14-year, $518 million deal starts Guerrero Jr. off as a 5.0 WAR player, slightly below his 5.5 WAR season last year, but slightly above his 2025 Steamer projection of 4.9 WAR. Under this scenario he’d remain a star player for the first half of the deal before regressing, and the cost of one WAR is indexed to inflation.
It’s optimistic, but far from outrageous for a 25-year-old who already has one 5.5 WAR season and another 6.3 WAR season. There would be pathways to a win for the Blue Jays here, especially since WAR doesn’t account for the playoffs, where Guerrero Jr. could shine brightly even against elite pitching. Of course the closer Guerrero Jr.’s asking price was to $600 million, the tougher such an expenditure is to justify, and no front office is going to offer a player a blank cheque.
Still unknown, though: whether either side would have considered such a price palatable.
