Global instability is beginning to weigh on demand for travel to the USA

BARCELONA, SPAIN –  The fluctuating world scenario that results from the USA administration policies and announcements is starting to impact travel intention to this country, according to the latest analysis conducted by Mabrian, the global travel intelligence platform, part of The Data Appeal Company – Almawave Group.

Mabrian studied the spontaneous behaviour of flight’ searches to the USA analysing the Share of Flights Searches Index for the United States, that indicates the degree of market interest in this destination based on flight searches trend and independently of confirmed bookings. Data reveals shifting global travel interest to the United States for 2025, with significant variations across regions.

The analysis of millions of flight searches made between January and March 2025 from ten key source markets for United States (UK, Germany, France, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, India, Japan, South Korea, and China) for travel to the U.S. with travel dates extending through September 2025, highlights the instability of international demand to this destination. Moreover, the Share of Searches Index reveals significant variations in key markets across Europe, the Americas, and Asia: while some regions demonstrate more resilience.

This travel intent trend is also consistent with the evolution on confirmed flights bookings, via GDS, taking place between February and March 2025, as per data provided by The Data Appeal Company.

European Demand Shows Signs of Strain

The evolution of Share of Searches Index of European Union countries, the UK, and key markets like Germany, France, and Italy reflect that travel interest to the U.S. is diminishing, particularly in the aftermath of the January 2025 presidential inauguration, a trend to be watched ahead of newly implemented tariffs.

Overall EU27 travel intent to the U.S. is down -0.4 percentage points year-over-year, with the Share of Searches Index settling at 5.4% by late March. This percentage implies that the U.S. concentrates 5,4% of the total flight searches launched by the EU27 countries during the period analysed.

British demand, while initially impacted, has begun to recover – briefly surpassing last year’s levels in mid-March – making the UK the only European market analysed to show clear signs of resilience. Although gross bookings slightly declined in February (-1.1%), they rose in March (+1.6%), suggesting growing confidence among British travellers.

Germany and Italy each recorded declines nearing -1 percentage point compared to 2024, indicating growing uncertainty among travellers.  Meanwhile, travel intent from Spain has remained stable throughout the first three months of 2025, with some weeks in January even outperforming 2024 levels.

“This data underlines the sensitivity of European markets to geopolitical developments in other continents”, explains Carlos Cendra, Partner and Marketing and Communications Director at Mabrian. “While travel demand is always capable of being resilient, sudden policy shifts or added difficulties to visit the country project a less-friendly image of the United States as a destination, which might influence travel intent in the short and medium term”.

Divergent Trends in the Americas and Asia

The research identifies three distinct regional scenarios for travel intent from the Americas and Asia. Japan and Brazil show a declining trend in inspirational demand. Brazilian travellers’ intent to visit the U.S. sits at 8%, having dropped an average of -1.2 percentage points compared to 2024. In fact, bookings from Brazilian travellers to the U.S. between February and March 2025 declined -15% compared to last year, compared to the same period in 2024.

On the other hand, the Share of Searches from Japanese market to travel to the U.S. in the next six months, currently at 4.1%, remains below last year’s figures, showing no signs of recovery for the coming weeks.

“Data on the weekly evolution of inspirational demand to the U.S. for the next six months reflects the weakened consumer confidence from travellers in these top source markets when considering the U.S. as a travel destination over the next six months”, indicates Cendra. “This is creating two key effects: shorter planning and booking cycles, favouring last-minute reservations; and a wait-and-see approach that discourages bookings made well in advance.”

This double effect is also evident for the Canadian market. Share of Searches Index (22.3%) has been quite stable since January 2025, showing a similar inspirational demand trend to last year’s, but travel intent is not converting to actual bookings as in 2024, as gross passengers booked declined (-15.7% in February and -14.5% in March). By late March, Canadian demand was gaining momentum, improving confirmed passengers by +18.7% year-over-year, a frail trend that will depend on the developments of coming weeks.

Mexico and India also show a positive momentum in terms of inspirational demand, that should be monitored as the weekly evolution of Share of Searches Index in both markets since January 2025 has been unsteady.  Despite the volatile weekly evolution of Mexico’s Share of Searches Index (32.1%), the overall trend remains positive; whereas India surpassed 2024 travel intent levels by late March, even after early 2025 declines, suggesting rising interest.

Other top Asian source markets for the U.S., such as China and South Korea, have shown a surge in inspirational demand—rising by an average of +1.5 and +1.4 percentage points per week, respectively. Since January 2025, the Share of Searches Index for China (9.1%) and South Korea (6.7%) has consistently outperformed 2024 levels on a weekly basis. This upward trend is also reflected in confirmed bookings data, with the number of South Korean doubling compared to March 2024, and Chinese increasing by +40% in February and +23% in March.

Mirko Lalli, CEO of The Data Appeal Company, commented: “Travel intent and booking trends in the period following the announcement of tariffs clearly reflect heightened volatility and uncertainty. While March showed signs of recovery compared to February, the outlook remains highly unpredictable, as it is closely linked to shifting international policies and how travellers perceive global stability.”

Mabrian and The Data Appeal Company will continue to monitor global trends as the summer season nears, particularly the impact of new policy measures and geopolitical developments on both short- and long-term travel decisions.

The article Global instability is beginning to weigh on demand for travel to the USA first appeared in TravelDailyNews International.