Friday Four: Can Oilers overcome loss of Ekholm?

The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing player storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is: 

• How much will the Oilers miss Ekholm? 
• Kuemper a huge advantage for the Kings 
• Are the Stars in trouble without Heiskanen? 
• Woll comfortable coming off the bench 

Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton Oilers 

When Zach Hyman proclaimed the Edmonton Oilers would be back during a fiery post-game locker room speech only moments after losing Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, how could you not believe him? Hyman’s conviction was based on the fact that the Oilers were coming off a deep playoff run and near-miraculous comeback, with two of the best players in the world and a great supporting cast set to run it back.

Since then, though, almost nothing has gone right for the Oilers. They lost Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to offer sheets last summer, choosing not to match and instead betting on free agent signings like Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, who haven’t panned out. Evander Kane missed the entire regular season due to injury, and Edmonton got off to a dreadful start, losing five of their first seven games. The goaltending has let them down, with Stuart Skinner posting the worst statistical season of his career and sporting a save percentage below .900. Then, there have been key injuries to Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid down the stretch, as any hope of securing home ice advantage slipped away.

However, perhaps the most devastating blow was losing Mattias Ekholm for what feels like an annual opening round matchup with the Los Angeles Kings and possibly beyond due to an injury. It can’t be overstated how important Ekholm is to this Oilers blue line, as the veteran has been a calming force to Edmonton’s defence corps since joining the team. He was a critical piece that the Oilers were missing, and there’s no one else like him on the roster. Ekholm averages over 22 minutes a night overall, with more than two minutes per game coming on the penalty kill.

When you remove him from the lineup, it’s easy to see how much it hurts the Oilers. According to Sportsnet Stats, while Ekholm is on the ice this season, Edmonton has registered 540 scoring chances for and has given up just 393, which nets out to a plus-147 ratio. Without Ekholm on the ice, though, that number drops significantly. In that scenario, the Oilers have generated 1053 scoring chances but have allowed 1010, for only a mark of plus-43. That’s a significant drop-off. Edmonton has also conceded 594 slot shots against without Ekholm, but when he’s on the ice, they’ve only allowed 231.  

The Oilers should be very concerned about those numbers heading into the post-season for a number of reasons. Skinner has not played well this season and has been replaced in previous playoffs, so Edmonton can’t expect him to steal games for them and overcome some of the defensive shortcomings. Secondly, we saw how much Darnell Nurse struggled last spring, and without Ekholm, they will have to lean on him and Jake Walman a lot more, which isn’t ideal. Walman was a nice pickup at the deadline, but I’m not sure he was exactly what the Oilers needed. He’s more of an offensive threat than a shutdown defenceman.  

That brings us to Evan Bouchard, who has skated with Ekholm for 63 per cent of his even-strength shifts this season. The polarizing Oilers blue-liner may be the player most impacted by the loss of Ekholm, as his game is night and day with and without his partner. With Ekholm and Bouchard playing together, the Oilers have registered 452 scoring chances, allowing 329 against. When Bouchard is out there without Ekholm, Edmonton has given up 202 scoring chances and generated just 243. So, that’s 123 scoring chances more than they’ve allowed when they’re together, compared to only 41 more when Bouchard doesn’t have Ekholm with him. Bouchard’s expected goals percentage is also 60.5 per cent with Ekholm, but drops to 33.3 per cent without him.  

Bouchard is a great offensive player but we’ve seen him face substantial defensive challenges at times. Ekholm really stabilizes Bouchard’s game and now that he’s injured, the Oilers are going to have to prepare for potentially more mistakes from Bouchard and scoring chances allowed.  

Even before Ekholm’s injury, there was already a tide that was turning between the Oilers and Kings. While the Oilers were often the heavy favourites in the past, Los Angeles now feels like they’re in a great position given their depth, home record, excellent structure and solid goaltending. Now without Ekholm, the Oilers are in a real uphill battle.

In what has been an incredibly tumultuous season in Edmonton, the Oilers will now have to navigate things for the foreseeable future without their most stabilizing pillar.

Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings 

The loss of Ekholm is a significant blow to the Oilers’ chances against the Kings, but it’s not the only major issue they’re dealing with.  

Los Angeles might have the biggest goaltending edge of the opening round, as Darcy Kuemper is quietly playing arguably the best hockey of his career. Yes, the Kings are a great defensive squad and Kuemper benefits from that, but he’s taken his game to another level this season. Kuemper ranks third in the NHL in save percentage, and he finished just behind Connor Hellebuyck for the league’s best goals against average. He’s also saved 22.5 goals above expected, good enough for the sixth most this season.  

In addition to those numbers, Kuemper has been incredibly consistent and played his best hockey down the stretch. Among goalies that have played 30 games this season, Kuemper has a quality start rate of 66 per cent. Only Hellebuyck, Anthony Stolarz and Filip Gustavsson were better in 2024-25. Kuemper will also be heading into this series with plenty of confidence. Over his past 17 starts, Kuemper has allowed more than two goals only once and has three of his five shutouts this season over that stretch.

On the other side of the ice, Stuart Skinner had a dreadful March, and his save percentage is .896 on the season. He was replaced by Calvin Pickard during last year’s post-season, and while that could very well happen again in these playoffs, Edmonton can’t be confident in turning to a career backup to try and outduel Kuemper in what figures to be a very tight series. One bad goal could end up being extremely costly.  

During the past two post-season series against the Oilers, the Kings got subpar goaltending from Cam Talbot and Joonas Korpisalo, but Kuemper figures to give them a huge advantage this time around. And it just might be the difference in the Kings finally getting past Edmonton.

Miro Heiskanen, Dallas Stars 

The Dallas Stars could arguably be the most talented and deepest team in the NHL from top to bottom, but they’re also the team reeling the most heading into the playoffs.

Dallas lost seven in a row to close out the season, giving up at least five goals in five of those games. It’s also worth noting that over this stretch, only two of those losses came against teams headed to the post-season, with the others at the hands of Pittsburgh, Vancouver, Utah, Detroit and Nashville. You can’t even say all these games were meaningless for the Stars, either. It wasn’t that long ago that Dallas still had a legitimate chance to overtake the Winnipeg Jets and win the Central, but a decisive 4-0 loss to the Jets last week ended any hope of that happening.

It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s gone wrong for the Stars down the stretch. Under Peter DeBoer, Dallas has typically been a structured squad comfortable rolling four lines and beating you with balance. Things have changed drastically of late, though. Dallas can no longer keep the puck out of its net, and the normally reliable Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have allowed 14 and 15 goals, respectively, in their past three starts.  

If there is one thing that stands out, it’s the loss of Miro Heiskanen to injury. To their credit, the Stars did an excellent job of getting by without him for quite some time, as Heiskanen last played in late January because of injury. He’s the rock of their blue line and one of the best defenders in the league, so he’s not someone who can easily be replaced.  

Heiskanen averaged more than 25 minutes a night this season before he went down, and Dallas’ defence corps isn’t nearly as deep as their forward group. Thomas Harley has really stepped up, and Esa Lindell is an underrated player, but there are question marks with others on the back end. The right side of Ilya Lyubushkin, Cody Ceci and Matt Dumba are probably all best slotted as third pairing defencemen at this point in their careers, but the Stars will be forced to lean on them more heavily than they should. Plus, if Heiskanen can’t play in Round 1, which seems like a real possibility at this point, Brendan Smith and/or the inexperienced Lian Bichsel will have to play important minutes.  

Compounding the problem is that the Stars face the Colorado Avalanche to start the post-season, perhaps the worst opponent for a team that can’t keep the puck out of its net. Colorado is one of the highest scoring teams in the league, and their foot speed could create problems for that aforementioned right side of the blue line, who are all in their thirties. We also saw the Avalanche flex their offensive muscle last spring in the first round against a good defensive team in Winnipeg and Connor Hellebuyck. The Avs had at least five goals every game and cruised past the Jets.

Dallas doesn’t have much time to regroup, as their series with Colorado starts on Saturday. Now, there is concern about a Jason Robertson injury as well. What was once considered the main event of the first round and a must-see series could end up being a short one if the Stars can’t figure things out quickly.  

Joseph Woll, Toronto Maple Leafs 

The competition to patrol the crease in Game 1 of the playoffs for the Toronto Maple Leafs has been determined for quite some time, with Anthony Stolarz separating himself from Joseph Woll. It’s not that Woll has been bad at all. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. The Leafs have two good goalies at their disposal, but Stolarz has simply been great this season.  

That said, the post-season can be an unpredictable time where anything can happen. Stolarz has never started a playoff game before and has had injury challenges in the past, so if the Leafs go on a long run, it’s unlikely he’ll be the only goalie we see between the pipes for Toronto.

For most teams, that could be disastrous. Not every squad has two goalies they trust, and it’s often a significant drop-off between the two. That’s not the case with the Leafs, as they’ll have no trepidation about turning to Woll, who has played well in big moments before and has a history of coming out of the bullpen in the spring.  

Two years ago, when the Leafs lost to the Florida Panthers in five games, Woll was called into action to start Game 4 in Florida, and he promptly stopped 24 of 25 shots to keep the Leafs alive. Then in Game 5, he stopped 40 of 43 shots in another impressive showing, albeit in a losing effort in overtime. Last year, it was more of the same, as Toronto turned to Woll in Game 5 against the Boston Bruins, where he was almost unbeatable. He gave up two goals combined in two straight wins, helping the Leafs force a Game 7 before an injury prevented Woll from finishing the series.

Not every goalie can excel coming into a series cold, but Woll has proven on multiple occasions that he’s capable of doing just that. As difficult as it is for Woll not to be starting this post-season, it’s very likely he’ll get another crack at some point. The Leafs are fortunate to have an embarrassment of riches in net, and it’s one problem they’re very happy to have.

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