Cage Locks: Machado Garry, Prates ready to throw down at UFC Kansas City
Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates are set to meet in a UFC Fight Night main event Saturday that’ll have significant impact on the top of the welterweight division.
The UFC drops down in Kansas City, Mo., this weekend for the third time in the organization’s history and fans at the T-Mobile Center and those watching abroad on Sportsnet will be treated to a top-tier welterweight main event.
Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates are set to meet in a five-round contest that’ll have significant impact on the top of the 170-pound division.
Machado Garry occupies the No. 7 spot in the contender rankings and is looking to bounce back from his first pro loss – a five-round unanimous decision to Shavkat Rakhmonov in December – and the ultra-confident Irish star thinks a win should earn him a title shot.
UFC 315 next month in Montreal is headlined by Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight title. Sean Brady and Rakhmonov, the No. 1- and No. 2-ranked contenders, respectively, also factor into the title picture.
Prates enters the weekend ranked No. 13 but he carries a 4-0 UFC record with four knockout wins and four performance bonuses. A win over Machado Garry would push Prates into the top 10 and add a new name into the mix.
UFC Kansas City is a 14-bout card that also features Anthony Smith’s final pro bout in the co-main event when the one-time UFC title challenger faces rising knockout artist Zhang Mingyang in 205-pound action.
All but one fighter made weight at Friday’s weigh-in. Giga Chikadze missed the non-title featherweight limit by one pound so his main card contest with David Onama will instead proceed at a 147-pound catchweight and Chikadze will be fined 20 per cent of his purse.
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Below is the projected bout order and full predictions for UFC Kansas City…
MAIN CARD
— Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates
— Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang
— Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama
— Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov
— Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
— Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick
— Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young
— Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda
— Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Alateng Heili
— Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Cameron Saaiman
— Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana
— Timothy Cuamba vs. Roberto Romero
— Chelsea Chandler vs. Joselyne Edwards
Ahead of each UFC event in 2025, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will peruse the odds and make four betting predictions: one best bet, one favourite, one underdog and one dart throw wager. REMINDER: Sportsnet is committed to promoting and educating audiences about the importance of betting responsibly. Sources for responsible gambling can be found HERE.
AARON’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castenada goes distance -357
Favourite: Gutierrez -149
Underdog: Giga Chikadze +140
Dart Throw: Anthony Smith to win outright +400
I expect Gutierrez and Castenada go to a decision and that Gutierrez gets his hand raised in that circumstance more often than not. … While Chikadze is starting to get a bit long in the tooth, his striking is far superior to Onama’s and, if he can stifle the takedowns, I like him as an underdog in this matchup. … Finally, Smith is one of the easier dart throws of the year. Mingyang should not be this big of a favourite, even with recency bias taken into account. I expect the savvy veteran to give a good account of himself in what is being billed as his retirement fight.
DAN’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Da’Mon Blackshear -500
Favourite: Joselyne Edwards -300
Underdog: Nicolas Dalby +220
Dart Throw: Jaqueline Amorim by Decision +425
Admittedly these aren’t the most exciting picks but I think they offer the easiest path to the pay window given the selection criteria. Blackshear is riding a two-bout win streak and both coming by submission. I don’t see a scenario where he doesn’t beat Alatengheili in what looks like a favorable matchup. … Chelsea Chandler is no easy out, but Edwards looked really good in her last outing when she submitted Tamires Vidal in the third round back in October with an RNC. Chandler’s southpaw stance could cause Edwards some trouble stylistically but not enough to prevent what I believe to be an inevitable outcome. … Both Randy Brown and Dalby are coming off losses and both are veterans of the sport with a track record of upsetting the odds, I’m going with Dalby here because of the potential for a decent return. I think it will be a much closer fight than the odds indicate. … The consensus among oddsmakers is that Amorim wins but I’m not too convinced she can do it inside the distance. Just a hunch that Viana survives (perhaps just barely) to see the judges award her opponent the victory on scorecards.
MIKE’S PICKS
Cage Lock: Ikram Aliskerov to win -500
Favourite: Ian Machado Garry -130
Underdog: Abus Magomedov +120
Dart Throw: Anthony Smith by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1-2 +1600
There’s confidence then there’s arrogance and Machado Garry has been toeing the line in the leadup to this card. All his bloviating aside, he has a well-rounded skill set, solid fight IQ and what I believe should be a grappling advantage. This is a five-round fight and Prates is a smoker, which could actually become a factor the longer it goes. It has been more than five years since Prates has even seen a third round let alone a possible fourth or fifth. Machado Garry must be mindful of where his chin is and be vigilant on defence but overall he should have more paths to victory. … Was once quite high one Andre Muniz but I don’t see him snatching an arm or taking the back here against Aliskerov who should get back in the win column with a statement performance, putting other middleweight on notice.
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CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
Three legs: Gutierrez vs. Castenada goes distance + Blackshear + Aliskerov
Parlay odds: -119 (to win: $84.33)
2025 STANDINGS AFTER 13 EVENTS
CAGE LOCKS PARLAY
2025 record: 7-6 (W1)
2025 winnings: +$227.39 (on $100 bets)
AARON’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+9.13 units)
Best bet: 11-2 (+$14.42)
Favourite: 4-9 (-$696.81)
Underdog: 8-4-1 (+$695.24)
Dart throw: 4-9 (+$900)
DAN’S RECORDS/TOTALS (+1.07 units)
Best bet: 12-1 (+$154.79)
Favourite: 7-6 (-$157.70)
Underdog: 9-4 (+$850.24)
Dart throw: 1-12 (-$740)
MIKE’S RECORDS/TOTALS (-11.99 units)
Best bet: 9-4 (-$21.38)
Favourite: 7-5 (+$147.82)
Underdog: 4-8-1 (-$25)
Dart throw: 0-13 (-$1,300)
Cage Lock: The pick deemed to be the wager most likely to win regardless of what the odds look like. The Cage Locks parlay will combine Aaron’s, Dan’s and Mike’s respective best bet for each event.
Favourite: A fighter with winning odds shorter than -300 but not longer than -110. On chalkier cards with a dearth of available moneyline favourites that meet those criteria, prop bets are allowed to be selected.
Underdog: Any fighter with longer odds than their opponent’s.
Dart Throw: Any prop bet or moneyline wager with odds of +400 or longer.
(Betting odds above are via BetMGM, submitted at various times throughout week, and subject to change prior to the fights)
