Blue Jays set for 2025 season of possibility and angst

TORONTO — This season, the 10^th under Mark Shapiro that the president and CEO himself describes as “an inflection point,” is likely going to require some compartmentalization. 

There is, at present, legitimate potential for a successful 2025, behind ascending superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a healthy Bo Bichette and a far better supporting cast than the one that finished 74-88 a year ago. Alongside that potential is apprehension about 2026 and beyond, driven by the pending free agencies of the two franchise cornerstones, although the contracts of several other core players are expiring over the next two falls, as well, even after the $58-million, five-year extension for Alejandro Kirk that runs through 2030.

So, the possibility of excitement and near-certainty of anxiety are baked into a 2025 for the Blue Jays in which everything that isn’t locked in will face constant scrutiny — the core, the manager, the front office — with the results a springboard into whatever comes next.

“When you look at us, the last handful of years, there’s always pressure. There’s always expectation,” says manager John Schneider, whose contract also expires at the end of this season, but includes a club option for 2026. “Rather than run from that, I think you lean into it a little bit and everyone gets where we are. If we let it affect us and what we’re trying to do, it leads to not our best brand of baseball. So I don’t think there’s extra pressure. We understand what’s at stake this year — and every year. To put extra pressure on ourselves, or for players to do it individually, would be counter-productive.”

For sure, but it’s much easier to keep the lens zoomed in on the present at the dawn of Opening Day than when the new year unfolds and the baseball calendar forces the critical decisions that lie ahead into the picture.

And because so relatively little is secured medium-to-long-term for the Blue Jays, from Shapiro who is in the final year of his deal on down, there are so many more possibilities in play. 

Contention for the playoffs is the easiest of the bunch, as it means adding at the deadline, pushing forward with Guerrero, Bichette and fellow pending free agents Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Chad Green and Erik Swanson, and figuring out the rest in the off-season. 

Falling out of the race, as immensely painful as it would be, is also fairly straightforward, as all expiring contracts, at minimum, must be sold off to further restock the farm system, with the off-season approach determined by the projected trajectory of their prospects. 

The most complicated situation, of course, is drifting between those two extremes, in the race just enough to feel like there’s a shot, far enough back that it’s hard to fully buy-in. That’s where the toughest directional calls lurk.

Now, the Blue Jays have, subtly, started to establish a new core for the future around Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander, who are both guaranteed through 2029, plus Kirk. They’re a start, but who will be the carrying players for that new group without the 8-10-plus-win base that Guerrero and Bichette provide? How will they get to the next wave of prospects, perhaps fronted by Arjun Nimmala, the 19-year-old shortstop expected to open at advanced-A Vancouver this year?

“We don’t just adjust to that over a week or a month — you’re constantly planning for having the right amount of depth and the right roster construction to sustain a winning environment,” GM Ross Atkins says of managing against the current situation. “Fortunately, we’ve had the resources to add via free agency. And in the event that we don’t want — that’s not a desired outcome — we don’t have those players here, there will be other avenues. In addition to that, we’ve had a very successful year in the player-development system with a lot of good stories and additions via trade, the growth of guys getting better that were here, that were drafted here. Really excited about the group of pitchers that will be becoming healthy to add to a very strong position player group that has a lot of depth with some ceiling.”

Given the promise of how well the Blue Jays were positioned heading into the 2021 season, with up to seven prospects on some pre-season top-100 lists and an enviably young core establishing itself in the majors, it’s hard to believe they’re at these crossroads a mere four years later.

At the same time, it’s easy to forget the dizzying pace of change during that span in these firehose news-cycle times. 

Coming out of the shortened 2020 season played at triple-A Buffalo because of Canadian government pandemic policies, the Blue Jays endured a three-home-city season in ’21 only to finish one game short of the post-season; proceeded to twice earn wild-card spots, getting swept both times; made five of the six biggest financial commitments to players in franchise history, including three nine-figure contracts; pushed player payroll into the Competitive Balance Tax for the first time in 2023 and toward the second threshold this year; completed a massive two-stage renovation of Rogers Centre that’s transformed the business; and opened a new Player Development Complex in Dunedin, Fla., while also renovating TD Ballpark there.

Along the way the Blue Jays also took unsuccessful runs at free agents Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, re-entering a strata of the market the franchise had essentially written off after the 1992-93 World Series years.

“I think we’ve demonstrated the capability to sign and compete for every single player, regardless of where the market goes,” Shapiro said during his nearly hour-long conversation with media at spring training last week. That capability is a result of the way the Blue Jays run the business and that they extended Kirk and made an offer to Guerrero estimated to be in the $450-million range, depending on how the present value is calculated, according to industry sources, is indicative that Shapiro still has the confidence of ownership.

Though he refused to address his contractual status last week — “I never have commented on front office contracts, mine or anybody else’s,” he says — he very much sounded like someone confident about his future with the club, with visions for what’s ahead. 

There “will probably be one significant project … for next year” at Rogers Centre while “we still have to deal with team history and a family-focused space.” Eventually, some sort of refresh of the club’s suites needs to be done, too, he added. 

“We’ve pulled the biggest levers but there’s still a lot of heavy lifting left to do on the business side,” says Shapiro, pointing out the need to maintain the PDC and ensure it remains “a state of the art facility. … There are still opportunities and challenges for us that exist to meaningfully grow revenue.”

To that end, the Blue Jays have scheduled what Shapiro said was the busiest concert calendar the dome’s ever hosted. They’ve started running stadium tours as well as an events business, renting out the premium club spaces for various private parties.

“That’s all about providing us opportunities to bolster our major-league team,” Shapiro says. “That’s why we do those things.”

Success on the field underpins the success and failure of all those elements, of course, which only adds to the stakes at play in 2025. 

Better baseball means a better business — Shapiro says the Blue Jays project attendance at 2.7 million, right around last year’s total — and better business means more money to get better players. 

While Kirk says, “I never thought about (testing) free agency” before signing his extension, he did note that “the organization’s mentality is always winning here,” which was important to him.

“You can see we brought Santander, Gimenez, (Jeff) Hoffman — that was great for me,” he continues. “That tells me right there that it’s all about winning here. That’s why I’m here and very happy that I signed the extension.”

Similar sentiments drove opening day starter Jose Berrios, who was acquired ahead of the 2021 trade deadline for then top-100 prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, to sign his $131-million, seven-year extension that November. While the city, the fans and his family comfort were a key part of his decision-making, so too was “the group that first year in ’21,” when the Blue Jays fell one game short of the post-season.

“We knew we had the group, the talent to compete and do a lot of damage out there. That made it easier to make the decision to stay here,” says Berrios, adding that the Blue Jays, “said they would reinforce the team and they’ve been doing it so far.”

Reinforcements are one thing, backfilling for both Guerrero and Bichette is another, something Atkins stresses “is not the desired outcome.”

“We will have to have good stories within our player-development system and free agency and be open to trades if we are facing that,” he adds. “In the event that we get to the end of next year and they’re not signed here, then they will also be options to return here.”

Optimism and angst, together throughout. Welcome to the 2025 Blue Jays season.

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