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As Celtics close in on record, a look at NBA’s three-point surge
The Boston Celtics almost certainly will connect on a history-making three-pointer sometime this week. It’s likely to happen Wednesday against the Miami Heat. If not, then it’ll be Friday against the Phoenix Suns.
The Boston Celtics almost certainly will connect on a history-making three-pointer sometime this week. It’s likely to happen Wednesday against the Miami Heat. If not, then it’ll be Friday against the Phoenix Suns.
It’s coming. It’s inevitable.
This year’s Celtics — the defending NBA champions — will go into the playoffs having set league records for three-pointers made and three-pointers attempted in a season.
Everybody knows the Celtics shoot a ton of three-pointers; they have taken at least 50 threes in a game 36 times this season — and they’re a whopping 29-7 in those games after trying 62 of them in a win over Memphis on Monday night.
“It’s just a matter of taking what the defence gives you,” coach Joe Mazzulla said.
The Celtics are the first team in NBA history to take 60 threes in a game five times in the same season. They’re up to 1,344 made threes this season, now just 19 away from matching the record Golden State set two seasons ago — so that’s within realistic reach against the Heat on Wednesday. They’ve tried 3,636 threes this season, 85 away from the record Houston set in 2018-19.
This has been a talking point in the league for years. How many threes are too many threes?
The Celtics don’t care. Evidently, neither do about half of the other teams in the NBA.
Boston is one of 15 clubs poised this season to break franchise records in three-pointers made, three-pointers attempted or both. Some teams — Chicago, Cleveland, Portland and San Antonio — already have set one or both of those club records with two weeks left in the season.
Let’s take a look inside the numbers:
The league will set a three-point record. Again.
Now past 30,000 made threes for the fourth consecutive season — James Harden made the 30,000th on Sunday — the NBA is on pace to smash the current total records for three-pointers made and attempted in a season.
The league record of 31,579 made threes was set last season and the record of 86,535 attempted was set in the 2021-22 season. At the current pace, 33,000 made threes is within reach and 92,000 of them getting attempted isn’t impossible either.
It’ll be the 17th time in the last 22 seasons that the NBA has seen more threes than ever before.
Teams are trying 6.8 per cent more three-pointers, on average, than they did last season. This would be the biggest year-over-year jump in the last six seasons.
Translation: The three-point craze is not ending anytime soon.
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Half the league’s teams will break marks
If you’ve paid any attention this season, you know this isn’t just the Celtics going wild from deep. Almost every team is shooting threes at a dizzying rate — with Chicago simply obliterating its team record.
The Bulls had never made more than 941 threes in a season; they’re already at 1,171 this season. They’re on pace for massive increases over last season — up 36 per cent in threes made, up 32 per cent in threes attempted.
Also currently on pace to break club records for threes made, attempted or both in a season: Boston, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, the Los Angeles Lakers, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio and Washington.
It’s not for everyone. Houston is on pace for the eighth-most threes made and attempted in a season; to be fair, the Rockets of a few years ago were of the go-go-go, shoot-shoot-shoot mold, and this team is not. Dallas and Milwaukee are both on pace for only the seventh-most threes attempted in any of their seasons.
More players may make 100 than ever before
The record number of players making 100 three-pointers in a season is 125, set last season. It is expected be topped; through Monday, 122 players had at least 100 made threes this season.
There are 21 players who entered Tuesday’s games with between 90 and 99 made threes, so more will be hitting the 100 mark soon.
Let’s put this into more perspective: A decade ago — 2014-15 — there were only 57 players to make 100 three-pointers.
That number has more than doubled since.
If you don’t make 10 threes, you’re probably not winning
Making 10 threes doesn’t guarantee winning — but not making at least 10 threes in a game puts teams in serious trouble.
Through Monday, teams that don’t make at least 10 three-pointers lose 72 per cent of the time this season. Teams that don’t make at least 15 three-pointers lose 59 per cent of the time.
Teams that make 15 or more threes in a game win 65 per cent of the time. Here’s a weird quirk, though: Making 20 or more threes in a game has led to victory 75 per cent of the time this season — which is actually down from 83 per cent last season, 82 per cent in 2022-23 and 91 per cent in 2021-22.
There are exceptions
Not everyone is part of the three-point craze.
There are four players — the Los Angeles Clippers’ Ivica Zubac, Detroit’s Jalen Duren, Minnesota’s Rudy Gobert and Dallas’ Daniel Gafford — who have at least 500 points this season and have yet to try a three-point shot.
Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen (0 for 4 on three-pointers), Charlotte’s Mark Williams (0 for 1), New Orleans’ Yves Missi (0 for 1) and Phoenix’s Nick Richards (0 for 2) were close to being on that list.
Oklahoma City’s Isaiah Hartenstein is over the 500-point threshold — but is 0 for 18 on threes this season. Only three players have ever tried more threes in a season without a make; Gene Banks was 0 for 19 in 1985-86, Magic Johnson was 0 for 21 in 1982-83 and Tom Garrick was 0 for 22 in 1990-91.
